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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017


Cary_Snow95

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35 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Unfortunately the ensembles look like this..

 

 

 

I expect the EPS to correct towards the OP eventually, I believe the OP is hitting here. 

12z 1/20 run centered 00z 01/1/17

X6Y59rx.png

Compared to latest run same date:

 

t0A4Zn6.png

Eventually the ridge will be squashed. You see compared to the OP, the feature in the Pacific is growing deeper (more anomalous) and will eventually be separate from the troughing. When this happens the ridge has no where else to correct but west, as the super positive heights just east of Greenland are solidified. The PV has nowhere to go but settle east just south of Hudson Bay, and the -EPO will lead the way. 

Edit: had a fight with the images, should be right now.

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33 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Explain. :lol::(

Good ensemble agreement on -PNA with atl-r/ser continuing.  Need that PV lobe to slide east of HB, not west of it.  Hopefully all we need is some patience for later on in Jan.  Still lots to like about what the ensembles are showing.  Parts of Europe look cold....

Screen Shot 2016-12-22 at 4.37.10 PM.png

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^ Notice the low anomaly out in the Pacific, east of HI.  That is exactly what we want to see...not a big positively tilted, full-latitude trough.  That low allows a ridge to form in the west, which, along with the -EPO, allows cold air to sink south and the SER to get squashed/displaced east.

PS:  Can't wait for the crappy Weeklies report later!

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38 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

^ Notice the low anomaly out in the Pacific, east of HI.  That is exactly what we want to see...not a big positively tilted, full-latitude trough.  That low allows a ridge to form in the west, which, along with the -EPO, allows cold air to sink south and the SER to get squashed/displaced east.

PS:  Can't wait for the crappy Weeklies report later!

Weeklies can't get much worse then Monday's run....or can they

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