toxictwister00 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 33 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Couldn't agree more, but that was/is not the point I was raising - it is again quick before and after, and any cold looks to be out after NY's Day or so, based on this run. e.g., and go forward: I had seen the whole run already before my previous post. I guess I misunderstood or misread your post and assumed you were only talking about NYE, not the days afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, toxictwister00 said: I guess I misunderstood or misread your post It's all good! Enjoy the discussion - I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Euro comes in looking pretty good and the same day some of the the MJO models go into weird directions ... consistency is not our grace this year, so far, anyway ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 hour ago, pcbjr said: Couldn't agree more, but that was/is not the point I was raising - it is again quick before and after, and any cold looks to be out after NY's Day or so, based on this run. e.g., and go forward: As we were looking at a death torch 2-3 days ago, a cold New Years, would be gravy! My avg high now is 50, I'll take normal all day, everyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: As we were looking at a death torch 2-3 days ago, a cold New Years, would be gravy! My avg high now is 50, I'll take normal all day, everyday! Lol in that case, you'll never ever see snow again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Not sure if anyone had already posted this but I just got home and looked at the 18z GFS... HOLY . It's in fantasy land but still WOW i would love to see that come true lol GFS has been leading the way this winter so far, with the Euro playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: GFS has been leading the way this winter so far, with the Euro playing catch up. Brick, come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Brick, come on man. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49398-southeast-winter-storm-threats-model-performance/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49398-southeast-winter-storm-threats-model-performance/ Haha I'm not sure Grit is tracking storms forecasted at 384 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: Haha I'm not sure Grit is tracking storms forecasted at 384 hours out. He's out with JB , looking for the next heat wave! He's trying to go over to the dark (hot) side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I think they're trying to tilt the bath tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Single plane glass the 3rd through the 14th, just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I'm good with 0z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 25 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Single plane glass the 3rd through the 14th, just sayin... And don't let anyone triple dog dare you to stick your tongue on the pane or else the GFS says it'll get stuck and you'll be calling the fire dept. Good to see you pop in. Also I'd take Grit into any meteorology debate against anyone on this board. "He could tie half his brain behind his back just to make it fair" and still come out on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 We have a chance to get warm +5 tommorow thanks to clouds rolling in tonight and putting a halt to radiational cooling. Also next Tuesday has a chance, but that's bout it. Rest looks seasonal until January, then we may be in for a suprise if models aren't rushing things. Bottom line is they where in fact playing hokus pokus on the big 2 week plus torch. Lucy has pulled the ball out again, but this time it worked in our favor. The consensus is really building up a head of steam now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I wasn't impressed with the 0z GEFS. A quick, transient shot of cool or two and by the end of the run, still western trough and eastern ridge with a terribly positive NAO and negative PNA. Op had some decent blocking over the top but it never really translated to anything storm wise. Still cutter city, which is disappointing. EURO on the other hand is absolutely gorgeous. +PNA, -EPO, -AO from about 168hr through the end of the run. Just beautiful. No storm to show for it though. That'd only make sense for the SE. Ugly pattern = lots of rain, great pattern = cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Anyone seen the MJO lately? Where can I find that at. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Anyone seen the MJO lately? Where can I find that at. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said: Anyone seen the MJO lately? Where can I find that at. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 7 hours ago, WeatherNC said: Single plane glass the 3rd through the 14th, just sayin... That new truck ready to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I wasn't impressed with the 0z GEFS. A quick, transient shot of cool or two and by the end of the run, still western trough and eastern ridge with a terribly positive NAO and negative PNA. Op had some decent blocking over the top but it never really translated to anything storm wise. Still cutter city, which is disappointing. EURO on the other hand is absolutely gorgeous. +PNA, -EPO, -AO from about 168hr through the end of the run. Just beautiful. No storm to show for it though. That'd only make sense for the SE. Ugly pattern = lots of rain, great pattern = cold and dry.I wouldn't get discouraged, models are just now sniffing out the -EPO...I'm not even looking past day 10. There's no way to tell where the PV goes at this point. With PV elongation showing up in the LR on all stratosphere modeling, we are headed in what's likely to be a good January. We don't need a SSW event either and a full split to get the benefits. Whether or not we get storms is another thing though. Just check out that cold advancing east, incredible...and these are Jan 1st anomalies, keep that in mind. That's deep cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 The 6z GFS says not many from SC to Miss will even go below freezing right through hour 384. Much of that area not even below 35 at all. Any winter weather will be from Tenn and the mountains of NC on to the north if this run is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 8 hours ago, NCSNOW said: And don't let anyone triple dog dare you to stick your tongue on the pane or else the GFS says it'll get stuck and you'll be calling the fire dept. Good to see you pop in. Also I'd take Grit into any meteorology debate against anyone on this board. "He could tie half his brain behind his back just to make it fair" and still come out on top. Nrgjeff says don't worry. Thinks 1/10 - 1/15 may be the turning point for this winter. He had a great write up in the TN forum last night. Talks high latitude blocking, sends tingles up my leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I'm actually liking the first week of January. Gfs for a couple days now has shown a lot of activity in that time frame. 500mb energy is much more aggressive come the first week of January and we are finally seeing some ridging and troughing across the US. WATCH the system that u see down in Texas at hour 228 it's got a nice blob of energy to work with but is suppressed into oblivion. I promise you in 2-3 days it won't be suppressed anymore. And might actually have some blocking to help it out. Gfs has hinted at this system more or less since it was in the 360 hr range. I like the looks so far given the normal model trends of less suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Euro is a thing of beauty. We get that to lock in for a couple weeKS and we've won the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 lol I love how people complain when the models look horrible and when they show signs of improving, still complain .the fact Is the ridging that's now showing over Alaska just started showing in the last few days and now we are seeing it extend poleward . couldn't really ask for a better flip at this point . let's all remember it wasn't but a few days ago and the talk was 2-3 week warmth. as Jon pointed put the epo is just now getting sniffed out . then we have lag time with downstream Impacts. I still think things are being rushed as we see the models do this ever wintet. regardless, it's nice seeing changes across the northern hemisphere across op runs and ensembles Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 47 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: lol I love how people complain when the models look horrible and when they show signs of improving, still complain . the fact Is the ridging that's now showing over Alaska just started showing in the last few days and now we are seeing it extend poleward . couldn't really ask for a better flip at this point . let's all remember it wasn't but a few days ago and the talk was 2-3 week warmth. as Jon pointed put the epo is just now getting sniffed out . then we have lag time with downstream Impacts. I still think things are being rushed as we see the models do this ever wintet. regardless, it's nice seeing changes across the northern hemisphere across op runs and ensembles Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Yep, and even if we don't get a -AO it's important to remember a -EPO can overwhelm a +AO and can send cold and stormy our way...it wouldn't take much to overwhelm the flow if Day 10 works out on the models as advertised. Long range implications are very, very unknown right now and for those looking after truncation throughout the entire run to 384 - don't, you're wasting your time. Follow trends in the EPO. I've told people who have messaged me about watching the EPO specifically this winter when they've asked what index they should pay attention to...not worth eyeing the -NAO constantly when you have the type of game changer such as the EPO diving negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 58 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Euro is a thing of beauty. We get that to lock in for a couple weeKS and we've won the lottery. The para GFS looks decent as well to me. We are not going backwards at least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 hours ago, jshetley said: The 6z GFS says not many from SC to Miss will even go below freezing right through hour 384. Much of that area not even below 35 at all. Any winter weather will be from Tenn and the mountains of NC on to the north if this run is right. It's wet, so you can't use the drought rants, so you've moved on to new material! I like it , keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 The MJO doesn't look to bad LR. Jan 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.