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Cary_Snow95

Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Is this the snowcover/ SOI guy!??

Yes. haha. He's posted model runs of SSW's that have never come to fruition, that's why I posted his blog post with the important anecdote "rather than towards the equator when the opposite will occur - the PV strengthens"....the GFS OP has fooled us 100 times when it comes to SSW's, but it's still interesting as SSW's are favored in Jan over any other month (I believe, I posted a lot on this last year...don't really recall my graphs or data but it was all on El Ninos...I'll have to find that paper and see the rate/frequency of SSW's in La Ninas)

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54 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Need to back up that western ridge a smudge!! I think E NC and up through MA, could score with that look and we all know we don't want that!! :(

Well some of "we" would be ok with that......the pattern doesn't look nearly as bad as it did a few days ago and the trend is our friend, we still have 8-10 solid weeks of legit winter left for most of the SE basically Jan 1 to March 15th, there will be several winter storms in the SE by March 15th.....not everyone will score but then again thats how it always is....

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19 minutes ago, Jon said:

Yes. haha. He's posted model runs of SSW's that have never come to fruition, that's why I posted his blog post with the important anecdote "rather than towards the equator when the opposite will occur - the PV strengthens"....the GFS OP has fooled us 100 times when it comes to SSW's, but it's still interesting as SSW's are favored in Jan over any other month (I believe, I posted a lot on this last year...don't really recall my graphs or data but it was all on El Ninos...I'll have to find that paper and see the rate/frequency of SSW's in La Ninas)

I have a newbie question about these SSW events, and I hope I can word it correctly.

So, SSWs help elongate, or even split, the PV. But doesn't blocking sort of "guide" where it goes once it splits? Is there a relation between blocking and SSW events? Is it even possible to get a SSW/PV split with a +AO/+NAO/-PNA combo? It would seem as though if nothing else, we'd have to have a -AO (poleward blocking) at the very least in order for the PV to truly "split."

I hope that makes sense. I guess in a nutshell, I'm asking how SSW events relate (or interact) with blocking.

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What hour? For how long?


Day 7-10, won't be AN if this happens! Also, ridging prior and 2mT trending weaker and e3bc76f9c4bb68632a00fb004d5a8e34.pngcolder


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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8 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

European has been awful.  Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range.  Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs.

Both models have sucked grapes in the LR.

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12 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

European has been awful.  Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range.  Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs.

Statistically speaking, the Euro was scoring a little over 90% at day 5, which was almost 5% better than the GFS.  Does anyone have that NCEP link showing model verification scores.  The Euro usually does pretty well at 500 with the larger scale features.

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28 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

European has been awful.  Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range.  Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs.

It is not what it is "selling".  It is that it is 'different'.  Meaning 'the torch' is not necessarily imminent now.

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18 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

That's the problem...EURO is only a little over 90% it takes 100% to be right about winter storms in the S/E. It shows fantasy storms just like the rest.

Yeah, I'm not talking about winter storms.  I just want to get the large scale features right.  After that we can look for a storm.....

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41 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

European has been awful.  Why would anyone buy what it's selling in the long range.  Good sign but based on the performance this year it's been garbage compared to the gfs.

Please explain, verification/correlation says otherwise.

27 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Statistically speaking, the Euro was scoring a little over 90% at day 5, which was almost 5% better than the GFS.  Does anyone have that NCEP link showing model verification scores.  The Euro usually does pretty well at 500 with the larger scale features.

Little tired of the anti-euro IMBY thinking. A global model can't always hit with mesoscale specifics. RIDICULOUS this keeps coming up. Euro rules GFS in the NH, period. I've posted the verification charts from WxBell before...there's no contest. 

Along with what CR said, , by 10 days, Euro verification is around 50% but I can guarantee that's much better than the GFS at that range.

 

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1 minute ago, Jon said:

 

Little tired of the anti-euro IMBY thinking. A global model can't always hit with mesoscale specifics. RIDICULOUS this keeps coming up. Euro rules GFS in the NH, period. I've posted the verification charts from WxBell before...there's no contest. 

Along with what CR said, , by 10 days, Euro verification is around 50% but I can guarantee that's much better than the GFS at that range.

 

I agree.  It happens every year, but it is what it is.  It's nice to see some agreement in the longer range regarding help in the Pacific.  Now if we could ever get the Atlantic to cooperate (before I am too old to play in the snow) at the same time, we'd be in business.

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39 minutes ago, Jon said:

Please explain, verification/correlation says otherwise.

Little tired of the anti-euro IMBY thinking. A global model can't always hit with mesoscale specifics. RIDICULOUS this keeps coming up. Euro rules GFS in the NH, period. I've posted the verification charts from WxBell before...there's no contest. 

Along with what CR said, , by 10 days, Euro verification is around 50% but I can guarantee that's much better than the GFS at that range.

 

We seem to find it hard not to continually conflate individual storm progs at nebulous time frames with measured hemispherical forecasts.  Grit has a thread for model performance for storm tracking.  Empirically, the measured data shows that the Euro still wins the day wrt the pattern.  Anecdotally, it is my belief that it is not as good as it used to be wrt individual storm threats at medium term leads.

Either way, both models lose lots of skill out at D10+.  And both models have shown sustained torches and freezes this winter that have just not come to pass.  The pattern seems to remain in a state of volatility, although not one that has been conducive to a major east coast winter storm thus far.  And I for one am going to need to see consistent evidence of it (I.e. moving into shorter leads) before I'm a believer.  That is not to say that we can't get a fluke in a bad or marginal pattern.

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16 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Seems perhaps cool but not cold - surface air temps pretty much look normal with a couple slightly below wound in there. Nothing looks to be locking in. Here's the run:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016122118&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=172

Most of the SE is in the 30s/40s on NYE. I can't speak for every southern city, but I know here, upper 30s is nearly 15 degrees below average for NYE.

mQwluAF.png

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9 minutes ago, toxictwister00 said:

Most of the SE is in the 30s/40s on NYE. I can't speak for every southern city, but I know here, upper 30s is nearly 15 degrees below average for NYE.

Couldn't agree more, but that was/is not the point I was raising - it is again quick before and after, and any cold looks to be out after NY's Day or so, based on this run.

e.g., and go forward:

gfs_T2m_us_45.png

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