Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 16 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I see your point but those reds and yellows dictate to below or above normal per se that the model is forecasting. Yes we still have 10 days remaining but as some have stated there sights are running some 3 to 5 degrees below normal. The NE is a huge bust. Even the cold departures it has is a huge bust. Even the SW is a bust. Listen I know I'm in the minority here trying to see the best in this upcoming pattern. I'll remain optimistic while people dive off the cliff. Yeah, it's a bust on magnitude, but outside of the NE, it did (or is doing) fairly well on placement. And nothing wrong with seeing the glass half full...unless it's 3/4 empty! I kid, I kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 I will say the consistency in which the West has had a perfect trough so many times this season is freaking remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: Yeah, it's a bust on magnitude, but outside of the NE, it did (or is doing) fairly well on placement. And nothing wrong with seeing the glass half full...unless it's 3/4 empty! I kid, I kid. Lol I know! This pattern thing is extremely frustrating. It seems like since 2010 we cannot have a decent pattern around Christmas which sucks big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Christmas Eve looking a little nipply out!! No snow, but no Max outfits either! And damp and wet on Christmas too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Wedge looks alive this run. Central NC north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 At pti they have 12 out of 20 days below normal. Sunday really skewed, monked things up with that 18 hour spike. Anyway normal high is now 49 normal low 29, avg mean 40. So you can still get wedge days 44 for high and 43 for low thanks to clouds and end up +3 for the day. But avg person would think it was a BN day just of real feel. Just food for thought. Also rural areas get considerably colder on radiational cooling nights as opposed to airports and they definetly wind up colder by 1-2 at months end compared to official stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Wedge looks alive this run. Central NC north Yeah NWS thinks wedge isn't as stout as GFS, increased temps w/ 00z update. You can see the coastal offices are getting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Capital Weather Gang Pre-Christmas melt? North Pole forecast to warm 50 degrees above normal Thursday https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/20/forecast-north-pole-to-warm-50-degrees-above-normal-thursday-near-melting-point/?utm_term=.80fef01a6521 Sorry for the large font as I pasted the Article title from the web page article and it came across as a large font. I will adjust it on a desktop PC shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 RAH long range discussion -> Christmas continues to get cooler. Also Christmas Eve could get interesting (I'm reading between the lines and wish-casting). .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM Wednesday... On the heels of the dry cold front on Thursday, high pressure with pacific origins will settle over the area, resulting in near normal highs. Clouds will increase rapidly Friday night as a once-closed low off the California Baja rejoins the westerlies and shears out across the Ohio Valley early Saturday. Some light rain may break out before sunrise Saturday, with temps hovering just above freezing, but this does not appear to an airmass capable of sustaining sub-freezing temps or a threat of freezing rain at onset. Models are in better agreement on light rain over much of the area on Saturday as the upper wave and right entrance region of the associated jet pass by, which may very well result in highs lower than current guidance in the 40s and lower 50s. the big questions is then how quickly the resulting low clouds will erode as a +2-3 sigma upper ridge builds over the eastern US. A surface high building in from eastern Canada on Sunday may reinforcing weak CAD and delay better warming until a least Monday, when the high retreats offshore and southwesterly flow engulfs the area ahead of cold front over the Midwest. The GFS currently show a stronger CAD signal lingering Sunday and into Monday, suggesting highs only int he upper 40s and 50s. Confidence is lower than normal at the moment, and the current forecast will reflect a bland of the GFS and ECWMF, with a slight nudge on the cooler side in general. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Big changes on the euro overnight in the 7 to 10 day range. I'm not sure I buy that look just just shows you the volitile pattern we are in, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Man what a frost this am. I've seen snows get labeled as a trace, dusting that don't come close to touching this. Almost qualifies as avoiding the shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 9 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Man what a frost this am. I've seen snows get labeled as a trace, dusting that don't come close to touching this. Almost qualifies as avoiding the shutout. Same here. Just looked outside and it is heavy. Just told the kids here's your white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: RAH long range discussion -> Christmas continues to get cooler. Also Christmas Eve could get interesting (I'm reading between the lines and wish-casting). Same here but NWS has me at a close call for Ice Friday night..... .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Big changes on the euro overnight in the 7 to 10 day range. I'm not sure I buy that look just just shows you the volitile pattern we are in, in my opinion. It's been doing this all month, too. The models will show a warm up past 7 days only to back off as we get closer. And things remain active, too. I think we're bound to score a good winter storm if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 21 hours ago, griteater said: To put icing on the cake this a.m. not only is Chistmas saved from being a repeat of last year, looks like the much advertised pattern from H... is loosing its legs as we roll into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Big changes on the euro overnight in the 7 to 10 day range. I'm not sure I buy that look just just shows you the volitile pattern we are in, in my opinion. Yeah, Day 10 on the Euro, is a torch buster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, Day 10 on the Euro, is a torch buster! On the 06z GFS, I see lots of damming highs and a pretty stout trough in the east by day 10 (I know, it's always 10 days away). We are not quite there yet. Still need some blocking to show up to have some fun. Hold on folks it's coming..... Winter is not over by any stretch of the imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: On the 06z GFS, I see lots of damming highs and a pretty stout trough in the east by day 10 (I know, it's always 10 days away). We are not quite there yet. Still need some blocking to show up to have some fun. Hold on folks it's coming..... Winter is not over by any stretch of the imagination. I hope these overabundane of the NE HP's keep coming through winter. Watch em disappear if we get any blocking and it'll be Great lakes LP out the ying yang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 From The MA thread: I'd go dig up but gotta run: If you want to start your day off with smile check out the 0z parallel gfs run. Days 9-16 has cold locked in nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: Man what a frost this am. I've seen snows get labeled as a trace, dusting that don't come close to touching this. Almost qualifies as avoiding the shutout. Today was the first official usage of the windshield scraper for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Courtesy of Genscape Weather on twitter...top cluster on EPS showing -EPO building poleward, just need to shift the ridge from s/Aluetians to as close to west coast as possible. Or a stout -NAO...either one. For reference...I am hoping for a 2014 repeat, who isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 30 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: From The MA thread: I'd go dig up but gotta run: If you want to start your day off with smile check out the 0z parallel gfs run. Days 9-16 has cold locked in nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Man what a frost this am. I've seen snows get labeled as a trace, dusting that don't come close to touching this. Almost qualifies as avoiding the shutout.No doubt man! As the sun came up it looked like a solid dusting. Even the trees were capped Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: I think I could get snow or ice with that look!! Giddy up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Dang! Another 3 in the hundreds digit. Other than that, it looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Another Nugget from MA thread: Follow Judah Cohen@judah47 ECMWF shows once again why it is the champion, GFS has come around to stronger ridging in Gulf Alaska resulting in #colder in the eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Another Nugget from MA thread: Follow Judah Cohen@judah47 ECMWF shows once again why it is the champion, GFS has come around to stronger ridging in Gulf Alaska resulting in #colder in the eastern US Need to back up that western ridge a smudge!! I think E NC and up through MA, could score with that look and we all know we don't want that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 I don't want to put much stock in the GFS-Para, it's already showed about 6 winter storms for us this month. BUT the EURO on the other hand...shew. Looking good by D10. GEFS shows a transient trof in the east around D8-10, but quickly goes back to the western trof, eastern ridge for the remainder of the run. I think that baby trof on the EPS looks transient as well with that ++AO. I don't want to get sucked in. I still see no sustained HLB settling in, so I think we continue the trend we've been in since November. Few warm days, rain then a few colder days. At least through D10-16 or so. Still time to trend better. (Or worse) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Forum seems a little optimistic this morning, I like it! Judah also posted this. To preface this, this is just the OP GFS forecast from 00z I believe (he didn't label it but I doubt it's his own forecast) shows elongated PV lobe leading to a cold US by early Jan. From his blog post Dec 19 The other possible scenario is that in the next few weeks there is a significant increase in the WAFz/poleward heat transport that begins to perturb the stratospheric PV in early January. Potentially this could result in a robust SSW and even a major mid-winter warming (MMW where the zonal wind reverses from west to east at 60°N and 10hPa). Given that the QBO is in its westerly phase this might be difficult and instead the stratospheric PV becomes stretched or elongated such that the flow switches from westerly to northerly over North America and Northern Asia. This would favor colder temperatures for parts of Canada, the US and Northern Asia. I believe to force colder temperatures in Europe would likely require a more robust perturbation of the stratospheric PV and that elongation of the PV would not likely be sufficient. This stretching is already visible in the latter forecast for the stratospheric PV shown in Figure 12b and is likely related to the building of cold air predicted for northwestern North America in week two. It is my opinion that which of these two scenarios plays out will be determined in the next few weeks by how active the WAFz/poleward heat transport will be over the next several weeks. But it is not sufficient for the WAFz/poleward heat transport to become active, it needs to be directed sufficiently towards the pole to perturb the stratospheric PV rather than towards the equator when the opposite will occur – the PV strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 minute ago, Jon said: Forum seems a little optimistic this morning, I like it! Judah also posted this. To preface this, this is just the OP GFS forecast from 00z I believe (he didn't label it but I doubt it's his own forecast) shows elongated PV lobe leading to a cold US by early Jan. From his blog post Dec 19 The other possible scenario is that in the next few weeks there is a significant increase in the WAFz/poleward heat transport that begins to perturb the stratospheric PV in early January. Potentially this could result in a robust SSW and even a major mid-winter warming (MMW where the zonal wind reverses from west to east at 60°N and 10hPa). Given that the QBO is in its westerly phase this might be difficult and instead the stratospheric PV becomes stretched or elongated such that the flow switches from westerly to northerly over North America and Northern Asia. This would favor colder temperatures for parts of Canada, the US and Northern Asia. I believe to force colder temperatures in Europe would likely require a more robust perturbation of the stratospheric PV and that elongation of the PV would not likely be sufficient. This stretching is already visible in the latter forecast for the stratospheric PV shown in Figure 12b and is likely related to the building of cold air predicted for northwestern North America in week two. It is my opinion that which of these two scenarios plays out will be determined in the next few weeks by how active the WAFz/poleward heat transport will be over the next several weeks. But it is not sufficient for the WAFz/poleward heat transport to become active, it needs to be directed sufficiently towards the pole to perturb the stratospheric PV rather than towards the equator when the opposite will occur – the PV strengthens. Is this the snowcover/ SOI guy!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.