Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

[packbacker]

Back to some modeled fantasy snows day 10+ too...

[Brick Tamland]

See, give it 12 hours and the models will change again.

Looks like 11 of them have snow here. Panels 3, 9, and  17 would be nice.

[Bhs1975]

23 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GEFS goes block happy, building a -AO with a weak -NAO.  It's hell bent on that trough just off the coast...wondering if that cool tongue is triggering that.  

I see a lot more yellow than blue. 

[J.C.]

1 minute ago, Bhs1975 said:

I see a lot more yellow than blue. 

I was just looking at that too.  I see no mention of the lack of Artic sea ice mentioned anywhere in these forums as to why the ocean oscillations are rarely in our favor.  The lack of ice has to have something to do with it.

[TiltedStorm]

Back to some modeled fantasy snows day 10+ too...

All I want for Christmas is e9 to pan out


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[Jonathan]

Yeah I've got a few feet of fantasy snow I still need to shovel since back around thanksgiving.

[bhamwx205]

GEFS goes block happy, building a -AO with a weak -NAO.  It's hell bent on that trough just off the coast...wondering if that cool tongue is triggering that.  

want block happy ? 12z euro is for you

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[RubiksDestroyer]

Yeah, the end of the 12z Euro is pretty crazy. A huge -NAO sets up around day 7, and hangs around for the rest of the run. The EPO also dives negative, and the two end up connecting at the end of the run and trapping a piece of the PV:

Just looking at the map, the first thing that comes to mind is that the PV piece needs to be pushed further south, below Hudson Bay. But with what's going on above it, I can only assume that would happen in due time (certainly, it won't be heading back north!). This pattern looks awesome, IMO, and I'd love to see this occur. Of course, Euro or not, this is a 10 day OP forecast, so take this solution lightly.

[RubiksDestroyer]

I should add, the best thing about that run is that there's no SE Ridge anywhere in sight. The above-average anomalies are caused by more of a low geopotential gradient in the mid-latitudes (meaning, the geopotential heights increase more slowly than normal around us/directly to our north), and a high geopotential gradient near the PV. When the PV eventually drops (as it would, in that scenario), those reds would completely disappear. Note the blues around Florida! Complete opposite to what's going on now in that regard.

[Jon]

I should add, the best thing about that run is that there's no SE Ridge anywhere in sight. The above-average anomalies are caused by more of a low geopotential gradient in the mid-latitudes (meaning, the geopotential heights increase more slowly than normal around us/directly to our north), and a high geopotential gradient near the PV. When the PV eventually drops (as it would, in that scenario), those reds would completely disappear. Note the blues around Florida! Complete opposite to what's going on now in that regard.

Yes, with the look there would be absolutely no ridge over the eastern half of the US. What a huge ridge bridge, been a while since I've seen this modeled. Amazing.

[franklin NCwx]

Eps day 10 have the EPO ridge too far West over the aleutians and the north Atlantic ridge too far east.... go figure.

[Met1985]

7 hours ago, Jon said:

Verification at Northern Hemisphere 500mb

Day 10


Day 8


Day 5


Day 3


Purple PRX = Parallel (new) GFS



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Bump! Thanks for putting this together Jon.

[Isopycnic]

6 hours ago, packbacker said:

This is impressive...+20F temp departures.  

I'll take that!

[BIG FROSTY]

Christmas Night 2010!  What a memory..............  Will I ever see snow again? Seems as hard as pulling hens teeth anymore!!  

 

[Jonathan]

13 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Am I the only one who's still feeling pretty good about this winter? The pattern the models are showing doesn't look bad and we're getting to the point where we're most likely to see winter precip. Anyone who's throwing away the entire winter now because we couldn't score snow on December obviously has their expectations way too high.

Nothing in the foreseeable future looks conducive to winter weather. Yeah sure, we may get a 1-2 day transient block in early JAN before the trough shifts back to the west where it's been all year. Everything that would help us get snow is transient, and the systems never match up with the cold. As it sits, for at least the next 2 weeks, the only way we get a storm is if we get a PERFECTLY timed storm track underneath a PERFECTLY timed high pressure system for a CAD event. And something like that would be a mixed bag with temp issues at best.

Gonna have to count on FEB for like the 4th winter in a row now...

[pcbjr]

Other than 12/31, 18Z GFS is 15 full degrees warmer across the board on the low end from the 12Z today - 53º vs 38º; go figure; I can't. So, I'll close by saying, Merry Christmas Eve!

[BIG FROSTY]

JB's thoughts today on the cold (or lack of in the East)!

The blocking hooked over the top and the deep trough over Europe ( this is a severely cold European pattern)

would mean the cold is likely to take over. Its a matter of when, not if

So Why I am skeptical of hit and hold cold in the east through Jan 5, the cold in the west and the plains looks to be a good bet even Jan 1 on, and likely by mid month further east. The extreme remains on the table

[mackerel_sky]

4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

JB's thoughts today on the cold (or lack of in the East)!

The blocking hooked over the top and the deep trough over Europe ( this is a severely cold European pattern)

would mean the cold is likely to take over. Its a matter of when, not if

So Why I am skeptical of hit and hold cold in the east through Jan 5, the cold in the west and the plains looks to be a good bet even Jan 1 on, and likely by mid month further east. The extreme remains on the table

Yesterday he was saying torch and the models showing cold were wrong!? WTH? Too many damn steroids! I thing pcbjr and Pack, Arron a gang!

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

23 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

 

Gonna have to count on FEB for like the 4th winter in a row now...

Good Lord. 

We're still six days out from January. 

[pcbjr]

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I thing pcbjr and Pack, Arron a gang!

This perhaps could use some merry clarification - I have no dog in this fight; I'm too far south (at least seemingly this year, SER and all).

[BIG FROSTY]

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yesterday he was saying torch and the models showing cold were wrong!? WTH? Too many damn steroids! I thing pcbjr and Pack, Arron a gang!

Yeah it may be to many steroids? lol.... But I don't think he's buying into cold staying into the east until Mid or late January! 

[Jonathan]

2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Good Lord. 

We're still six days out from January. 

...with no hope in sight. I promise a winter storm isn't going to pop up outta nowhere between now and next Sunday.

[Cary_Snow95]

Just now, Jonathan said:

...with no hope in sight. I promise a winter storm isn't going to pop up outta nowhere between now and next Sunday.

There is potential between the 7-9. So much doom and gloom. We go thru this craziness every year it's silly

[Jonathan]

3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

There is potential between the 7-9. So much doom and gloom. We go thru this craziness every year it's silly

Sooooo you're chasing after a D14-16 GFS fantasy storm? See, this is what I mean. It IS bad.  

And it's really not craziness to say with some degree of confidence that the pattern is not currently, and probably will not become, conducive to a winter storm in the southeast for at least 2 weeks. Even JB, the biggest snow and cold hypeman on the planet (the equivalent of Mystikal in hip hop) is saying pack it up til at least mid-JAN. THAT'S how you know we're not in a good spot.

[BIG FROSTY]

7 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Sooooo you're chasing after a D14-16 GFS fantasy storm? See, this is what I mean. It IS bad.  

And it's really not craziness to say with some degree of confidence that the pattern is not currently, and probably will not become, conducive to a winter storm in the southeast for at least 2 weeks. Even JB, the biggest snow and cold hypeman on the planet (the equivalent of Mystikal in hip hop) is saying pack it up til at least mid-JAN. THAT'S how you know we're not in a good spot.

You got that happy right! Nothing is looking good so far for the SE......  Just they way we roll here in the heat doom! Models are useless they have proven nothing in the mid-long range yet this winter different solution every 6-12 hours... lol 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

29 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

...with no hope in sight. I promise a winter storm isn't going to pop up outta nowhere between now and next Sunday.

'Sight' throughout the last 3 months hasn't extended beyond 6 days. I completely agree about now and next Sunday, but writing off January as a whole and looking for February to be your savior at this point, is completely ridiculous. Step away from the ledge.

[Jonathan]

4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

'Sight' throughout the last 3 months hasn't extended beyond 6 days. I completely agree about now and next Sunday, but writing off January as a whole and looking for February to be your savior at this point, is completely ridiculous. Step away from the ledge.

There is no ledge, I live here at the bottom. If more of you joined me, you'd be less uptight.  

Seriously though. Fab FEB. Book it.

P.S. It was 32 degrees at the North Pole Thursday. 50+ degrees above normal. You really think we stand a better chance down here than Santa?  

[bhamwx205]

Nothing in the foreseeable future looks conducive to winter weather. Yeah sure, we may get a 1-2 day transient block in early JAN before the trough shifts back to the west where it's been all year. Everything that would help us get snow is transient, and the systems never match up with the cold. As it sits, for at least the next 2 weeks, the only way we get a storm is if we get a PERFECTLY timed storm track underneath a PERFECTLY timed high pressure system for a CAD event. And something like that would be a mixed bag with temp issues at best.

Gonna have to count on FEB for like the 4th winter in a row now...

most SE winter storms have to have perfect timing , so that's nothing new.

punting till February is silly given the high uncertainty. We have seen all year the SER modeled to be hulk style only to watch it verify much weaker . now we are seeing the ensembles with more blocking over the top . Let's remember just last week the ridge over Alaska was virtually not on any guidance except for some random OP runs. Hell just a few days ago the Canadian ensembles were hell bent with the GOA trough idea, they have now flipped.

Is it a perfect pattern? No its not. We live in the SE and we hardly ever get a perfect pattern. Heck we are lucky to get a 1-2 week window with a" good pattern" Could we score ? Of course we could like you mentioned with good timing . But to punt the next 5 weeks is crazy

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[packbacker]

2 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Am I the only one who's still feeling pretty good about this winter? The pattern the models are showing doesn't look bad and we're getting to the point where we're most likely to see winter precip. Anyone who's throwing away the entire winter now because we couldn't score snow on December obviously has their expectations way too high.

It could be a lot worse.  Only real surprise negative is the -PNA, was thinking we would see a neutral PNA this winter.

Several ninas have been snowy for us in Jan, would stink if we don't see a little something in Jan.  

[packbacker]

Atlantic is just boiling, I guess it shouldn't be a surprise we are seeing such a strong Atlantic ridge being modeled.  Hopefully that weakens as we get deeper into a winter.