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Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border


HoarfrostHubb

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I was told models all shifted SW with the highest wind potential.

Trop1.jpeg

GFS (and NAM and Euro) argue otherwise. They have the bowling ball lobe of PV drilling right across ME tomorrow night.

735 mb on the GFS, that's even better than last night. So if BOX is banging the trop fold idea they have more work to do than we do. Actually the best PV lobe swings through SNE during the day today, and not tonight when they have the highest winds in the forecast.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like maybe a separate area going WNW-ESE near 03z from ALB to ORH-TAN or so.

Yeah that's the area I was keying on. That's probably the one tied to trop interaction, as it looks like the real CAA winds delay until closer to daybreak Friday.

Compare 12z to 00z below. It definitely makes a move towards NH.

NAM4KMNE_sfc_gust_026.png

NAM4KMNE_sfc_gust_039.png

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nice front ender on GFS-definite improvement for mby.

here as well. wct wma do ok. hasnt been any big changes for days now, pretty consistent signal with minor fluctuations for certain locals but the overall look has been steady. i kind of expect some colder ticks upcoming though, once the low level cold is entrenched tom into fri. 

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And for reference, that 53 knots is 61 mph, and the whole HWW has 65 mph and the AFD mentions 80 mph. 

I just think the vast majority of people will see less than 65 mph.

Yes, I believe you are correct.  Wind gusts Almost always verify lower than forecast.  Not always, but most times for sure.   Maybe this time it's the time it verifies....we'll see??? 

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We've been actually discussing this recently in our office, that we are tasked to forecast wind gust but often times it's the peak wind that people take note of our can cause damage.

If we forecast the peak wind as wind gust, most of the time we will be too high on our wind gusts. If we forecast wind gusts as traditionally, we will miss the highest reported winds.

But peak winds and wind gusts, they just aren't the most frequent ones. :weep:

Like this event strikes me as a 45-50 mph gusts with peak winds of around 60 mph. 

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Did I see a BOX map with 4-6 inches over a lot of interior SNE?  Because GYX map has <1" for most of S and C NH.

Yeah I actually lamented this fact a page or two back. Cherry picking which event we're doing maps for gets confusing. We have snow expected with the squalls, so that's what we're highlighting right now.

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