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Dec 15-18 Arctic Front/Snow Thump/Meltdown to the Border


HoarfrostHubb

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I wish. One more mid to go then the taps open up.

But I would find it hard to believe all models have come in with greater than 55 mph gusts. I'll have more thoughts once I dig into things at work in a few hours.

After 3 tonight it's bedtime.. looking forward to your HWW thoughts and damage analysis early tomorrow 

As an FYI.. Ryan went on air mentioning gusts to 60.. so the threats real

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

After 3 tonight it's bedtime.. looking forward to your HWW thoughts and damage analysis early tomorrow 

As an FYI.. Ryan went on air mentioning gusts to 60.. so the threats real

Oh the potential is there. But I'm thinking more isolated higher gusts, but a general widespread 45 or 50 mph. A lot needs to come together right for 60+ to verify.

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just the point and click fetish but this is impressive

I think the 45-50 mph for several hours is fair and a good forecast. But I guess my issue is putting in 60+ to the grids like it's a certainty. I think that's more likely the peak wind we see, not the most frequent gust. So what exactly are we forecasting on the website? Almost a philosophy question.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Of course they already have a map out. At least it shouldn't change a dozen times before Saturday.

There was some decision a while ago to start putting maps out at 60/72 hours. Not sure if that is just a local office thing or not but it is questionable....so often the uncertainty is way too high. In this current system the guidance has been fairly consistent, but that obviously isn't always going to be the case. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There was some decision a while ago to start putting maps out at 60/72 hours. Not sure if that is just a local office thing or not but it is questionable....so often the uncertainty is way too high. In this current system the guidance has been fairly consistent, but that obviously isn't always going to be the case. 

I mean we can decide what event to highlight independently, but like we have upslope and snow squalls coming before Saturday. So that's going to be our storm total. So it looks like we aren't forecasting as much if people don't pay attention to date stamps.

It is a race now though to get those maps out. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Well to be fair the big winds are SW of your forecast area

You're hoping anyway. 

And it's not like the winds will be stronger just because they are SW of the area I forecast for. I'm just describing what I saw from model guidance. 70 mph winds are like the 95th or 99th percentile of possible outcomes from this event. 

Without some sort of 100 knot LLJ or convection induced mix down, I think you would struggle to find many (any?) HWWs with 70 mph wind gusts let alone westerly wind gusts.

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