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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, yoda said:

So... good ratios to start out Friday night?  15:1? ;)

If by 15:1 you mean 15 flakes every 1 minute then yes.

 

One thing for sure, if there really is going to be a burst of decent snow on frozen ground Friday night them I will be without question staying up and walking the dog in the middle of the night. No doubt in my mind. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Come on PSU! You can't possibly think I'm serious. But if you get 5" on friday night and DC metro gets less than 1" you'll have to ask randy for the password. 

Yea had a duh moment there, but I have always tried really hard to be sensitive when I am getting a local snow event and not post snow pics or brag at all in our forum.  I hope I have never come off that way.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
Just now, H2O said:

I welcome with open arms anyone in the area who gets snow.  that is until you get more snow than me.  then i want you to never post again.

Exactly. If you guys get snow in the cities tonight and I don't (and I already know I won't), I hope you lose electricity for a month.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

with the 12z suite in except the euro I would say the bleeding slowed but did not stop.  There was another subtle but real creep north overall in the thermal boundary and along with it the best lift and qpf.  Forget 10 miles bounces in this line or that temperature, if you just look at the qpf for the last two runs of each model you can see.  Its a good simple way to see where everything is because the best lift is going to follow the boundary and the best qpf will be there too.  Get into the bullseye area of that and you will do ok and usually hold snow just long enough to get a decent acumulation.  If you are south of there...well NEXT.  here are the last two runs of the GFS.   You can see still a subtle shift north.  GFS1.pnggfs2.png

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

GGEM was further south to begin with but it shifted north as well.  Not worth posting that though.  Everything shifted slightly north.  it was less of a shift then the last several runs though but still we need the bleeding to stop now and reverse.  I suppose if were looking for a silver lining the north movement was very minor this run and were still close enough to have a shot. 

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Kinda so done with the comparison to last year as justification for optimism. That's like comparing every world leader to Hitler to say their all doing a bang up job. 

True enough, that comparison has been overdone and I'm not seriously looking at that as a means for optimism.  But I was saying that for humor and snarkiness, which has also probably been overdone!  To be honest though, this December in terms of potential at least, has been far more interesting than the last few years (which again may not say a lot).

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

True enough, that comparison has been overdone and I'm not seriously looking at that as a means for optimism.  But I was saying that for humor and snarkiness, which has also probably been overdone!  To be honest though, this December in terms of potential at least, has been far more interesting than the last few years (which again may not say a lot).

I did pick up on the meaning and I am sorry if my post came off as a shot at you.  It was just a general statement, I have even been guilty of doing it the last few weeks at times.  Might be a moot point if some of the long range guidance is correct when were sitting in the 60s around New Years with endless warmth in site that argument may no longer be valid. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably the last time we can use the GEFS... but 2/3 of the ensemble members show DC with around 2" from the Friday night into Sat morning storm

True, but remember that 2" mean includes sleet and freezing rain so its more like 1" and the whole snowfall pattern shifted northeast another 20 miles or so and down about 1/2" for our area.  Not a huge difference but the bad trend did not stop yet.  That was my take away from 12z, still going the wrong way, if less so then yesterday.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I did pick up on the meaning and I am sorry if my post came off as a shot at you.  It was just a general statement, I have even been guilty of doing it the last few weeks at times.  Might be a moot point if some of the long range guidance is correct when were sitting in the 60s around New Years with endless warmth in site that argument may no longer be valid. 

Ha, no problem!  I guess at times I just need to laugh at things a bit when they don't look particularly good.  Just to keep some sanity when all else is looking like a fail!  I sure hope we don't end up with endless crap after this next week.  I'd deal with 60 on New Year's if there was good indication of things turning better sometime soon after, but that's kind of unclear right now.

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