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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop


North Balti Zen

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19 minutes ago, high risk said:

competing nowcasting trends going on:   southerly winds are established pretty well (at least at DCA and IAD), but dew points are not coming up fast at all

I mean, yeah it's a south wind, but it's got a lot of cold air to the south it has to pull up first before we get into the warmer stuff, so it's gonna take awhile for a south wind to actually mean much of anything. Dew points are still 0-15 degrees in NC! Once we DO get all that cold air out of the way, though, that south wind is going to make quick work out of the changeover.

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15 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

I mean, yeah it's a south wind, but it's got a lot of cold air to the south it has to pull up first before we get into the warmer stuff, so it's gonna take awhile for a south wind to actually mean much of anything. Dew points are still 0-15 degrees in NC! Once we DO get all that cold air out of the way, though, that south wind is going to make quick work out of the changeover.

Have to have precip before you can have a changeover.

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24 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

I mean, yeah it's a south wind, but it's got a lot of cold air to the south it has to pull up first before we get into the warmer stuff, so it's gonna take awhile for a south wind to actually mean much of anything. Dew points are still 0-15 degrees in NC! Once we DO get all that cold air out of the way, though, that south wind is going to make quick work out of the changeover.

 

     agree fully.   without decent southerly sfc winds, we'd stay as freezing rain through most of the morning, but the warm advection will expedite the transition.   Of course, I think we'll need to get to 34 or so before the iciness disappears due to the antecedent cold roads and sidewalks.

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Last night WAS Primo time for a jebwalk - and I wore only a tshirt in order to get the full effect.

The weather was breezy and truly refreshing, with ambient temps around 9 degrees with cool dewpoints in the mid to upper negative single digits. The wind was northerly at 15 to 25 mph.

It was a truly refreshing change! :)

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North central MD is getting moderate precip, probably snow, and if it persists, i see no reason why they cant accumulate at least 3-4 inches of snow. With the antecedent cold conditions - they have profound surface frigidization. Flakes will pile up, right from flake 1.

 

Get ready to pad up those stats, Marylanders! You just got one hell of a brand new casino, and now you have a brand new snowstorm, and the start of a kick ass snow season!

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