Dec 17-18 Front End Snow/Ice/Rain Event

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I'm shocked at the lack of users following this...NYC area has a good chance at half a foot or more 

You lead the way with the dusting this past weekend (yes you people got more) showing so much promise, everyone jumped on board even though it was clearly going to be DOA for most posters sake here, now a legitimate threat and no one bats an eye. Go figure lol

 

[BlueDXer75]

2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I'm shocked at the lack of users following this...NYC area has a good chance at half a foot or more 

I'm excited. Both Queens (where I work) and home near Reading, PA are in for a solid six inches of snow. Thanks Ulster and AllSnow for doing great PBP

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, BlueDXer75 said:

I'm excited. Both Queens (where I work) and home near Reading, PA are in for a solid six inches of snow. Thanks Ulster and AllSnow for doing great PBP

A little early for the Queens call IMO, but certainly appearing more plausible. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I'm shocked at the lack of users following this...NYC area has a good chance at half a foot or more 

I'd be shocked if that happened.  I would be more liking that possibility if that high was positioned to the northeast.  That is the only piece missing IMO right now for this to have a shot at getting into that range.   In the last 30 years I can only remember 3-4 SWFEs that switched over to rain or drizzle where NYC had over 6 inches.  All of them had the high over New England.

[NJwx85]

Haven't been paying much attention since I will be in Florida but it looks like on the GFS the warm tongue arrives in the city at 16z Saturday. From what I can tell, the 925mb freezing line only makes it about as far NW as the Rockland/Orange County line. By then, precip is shutting off anyway.

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'd be shocked if that happened.  I would be more liking that possibility if that high was positioned to the northeast.  That is the only piece missing IMO right now for this to have a shot at getting into that range.   In the last 30 years I can only remember 3-4 SWFEs that switched over to rain or drizzle where NYC had over 6 inches.  All of them had the high over New England.

Exactly, and I think it's exactly what your seeing, notice the trend of the H 

Most recent, to oldest

[SnowGoose69]

Its actually worse than I thought.  Only 1 SWFE since 1985 has NYC gotten over 6.  Maybe I missed one somewhere.  That was December 1990.  12/84, 1/89, and 12/03 all fell just short although many places in the area reported 6.  1/99 also had a few places get over 6 and was close.  That shows you how hard it is to get over that 5-5.5 mark with these things.

[Rtd208]

I am kinda liking 3-5" right now before any changeover but it will be interesting to see how things play out.

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its actually worse than I thought.  Only 1 SWFE since 1985 has NYC gotten over 6.  Maybe I missed one somewhere.  That was December 1990.  12/84, 1/89, and 12/03 all fell just short although many places in the area reported 6.  1/99 also had a few places get over 6 and was close.  That shows you how hard it is to get over that 5-5.5 mark with these things.

12/5/05 was close

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I'm shocked at the lack of users following this...NYC area has a good chance at half a foot or more 

These systems can be a little tricky. So far, things are looking nice. Hopefully, the guidance will remain relatively consistent over the next day or so ahead of the event.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

My early call would be:

3-7 NYC area

2-4 WLI

1-3 ELE

2-3 S to central Jersey

4-6 NNJ

4-7 LHV

4-6 just N of 84

5-8 far N +W ( Sullivan Co, N+W of ulster)

 

 

[Juliancolton]

I'd start at 2-4" and adjust upward as needed over the next several days. Lots of time and room for this to go all meh on us. 

[Stormlover74]

Its actually worse than I thought.  Only 1 SWFE since 1985 has NYC gotten over 6.  Maybe I missed one somewhere.  That was December 1990.  12/84, 1/89, and 12/03 all fell just short although many places in the area reported 6.  1/99 also had a few places get over 6 and was close.  That shows you how hard it is to get over that 5-5.5 mark with these things.

It's funny, I was just thinking about the dec 90 storm. They were forecasting 1-3" that morning and eventually had to issue warnings for 4-6 and ewr ended up with close to 8. Of course it warmed up and was gone 2 days later

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

[SnowGoose69]

Through 72 the UKMET looks close to the GFS.  Its been a party spoiler the last 2 years for sure.  Any event that has trended north its always been the first to see it

[Morris]

17 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

Euro?

2 inches for the city. 4-6 NW. Catskills jackpot.

 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, Morris said:

2 inches for the city. 4-6 NW. Catskills jackpot.

 

Better euro run for the area. 3 inches down to I-95 and 4-5 nw 

[dmillz25]

06z GFS looks like a general 4-8" for the area and also spins up a wave for sunday night that brings 2-4"

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

06z GFS looks like a general 4-8" for the area and also spins up a wave for sunday night that brings 2-4"

That looks a bit odd, that may be a CNJ special if there ends up being a wave as such.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That looks a bit odd, that may be a CNJ special if there ends up being a wave as such.

It worked out last year in the beginning of February we got 2-4 from a wave along a front. It's the one situation where the southeast ridge can help us. 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I'm shocked at the lack of users following this...NYC area has a good chance at half a foot or more 

Over half a foot along I95 with a high in that position and moving out?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

06z GFS looks like a general 4-8" for the area and also spins up a wave for sunday night that brings 2-4"

Gfs keeps showing that

Have to watch that wave

[Allsnow]

Eps about a inch for the area Sunday night

[EastonSN+]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

These systems can be a little tricky. So far, things are looking nice. Hopefully, the guidance will remain relatively consistent over the next day or so ahead of the event.

After being shut out 2 Decembers in a row 2 to 4 inches will feel like a warning event. I hope not too much ice with this.

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

After being shut out 2 Decembers in a row 2 to 4 inches will feel like a warning event. I hope not too much ice with this.

High sliding to the east will prevent any prolonged ice 

[nzucker]

8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its actually worse than I thought.  Only 1 SWFE since 1985 has NYC gotten over 6.  Maybe I missed one somewhere.  That was December 1990.  12/84, 1/89, and 12/03 all fell just short although many places in the area reported 6.  1/99 also had a few places get over 6 and was close.  That shows you how hard it is to get over that 5-5.5 mark with these things.

In the Feb 2008 SWFE, Central Park got 6.0"...areas to the north like POU had 10"..

[WeatherFeen2000]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs keeps showing that

Have to watch that wave

I can't  lie Ant I'm hyped. But that high does worry me hopefully we get a secondary low that forms on that boundary to make up for some of the melting from the initial batch. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

After being shut out 2 Decembers in a row 2 to 4 inches will feel like a warning event. I hope not too much ice with this.

I agree. Hopefully, any period of icing will be short-lived once the snow changes over.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

My only fear on this event is virga, we've seen it time and time again. Precip is delayed up to 2-3 hours while the air saturates... dew points are in the single digits in some spots and teens by the shore at onset 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

My only fear on this event is virga, we've seen it time and time again. Precip is delayed up to 2-3 hours while the air saturates... dew points are in the single digits in some spots and teens by the shore 

I haven't checked soundings yet today on new guidance, but when I looked yesterday this once again looked like an event with little to no virga, similar to this past Sunday.  The only reason that event even had any virga was the precip was insanely light and sparse, otherwise it would have reached the ground even earlier.  This coming event on yesterday's models had no huge dry nose evident in the 650-900mb later at all, only dry at the surface.  That can be overcome quickly if you are saturated down to 6-8,000 feet before any precip arrives. 

[donsutherland1]

Some AO stats (December 1-14):

Average: +0.552

% Days > 0: 57%

% Days +1.000 or above: 50%

% Days < 0: 43%

% Days -1.000 or below: 7%

The AO is forecast to rise to +2.000 or above in the medium-range and possibly +3.000 or above. This outcome coupled with the failure for strong blocking to develop suggests that the probability of a blocky winter relative to climatology has diminished. There could still be periods with strong blocking, but a blocky winter overall now appears less likely. In short, we'll probably need help from the Pacific to maximize our opportunities for cold and snow. This does not mean that winter is over and should not be interpreted in such fashion.