Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 16-18 Winter Storm Threat


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Paulie21 said:

Gilbert has been a very respectable forecaster for a long time, posts daily forecasts and discussions for Dekalb, Naperville, and some other locations. He probably has Brant Miller in mind, posting snowfall amounts for a non-sampled system down to tenths of an inch. Not professional and people like him are the reason mets get a bad rep cause he won't even bother verifying this, I'm sure.

lol brant.PNG

He said the right things... "could" and "a lot can change", but I agree... shouldn't have shown that this far out.  You can couch your language all you want but a lot of people are going to see that and believe that's what's coming.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 582
  • Created
  • Last Reply
22 minutes ago, Paulie21 said:

Gilbert has been a very respectable forecaster for a long time, posts daily forecasts and discussions for Dekalb, Naperville, and some other locations. He probably has Brant Miller in mind, posting snowfall amounts for a non-sampled system down to tenths of an inch. Not professional and people like him are the reason mets get a bad rep cause he won't even bother verifying this, I'm sure.

lol brant.PNG

Gilbert Sebenste is the Staff Meteorologist for Northern Illinois University.  He issues forecasts for De Kalb, Naperville, Hoffman Estates, and Oregon to meet the operational needs of the university (campuses at all those locations).  I know him through other channels (from having done my undergraduate work at NIU), and he's definitely referring to Brant Miller showing those accumulation progs from the GFS.  

Not to veer too off-topic, the thing that a TV broadcaster must realize is that, many times, their presentations will be received silently by viewers - they'll see only the graphics.  Think, for example, a bar that has television sets that happen to be showing news.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Natester said:

18z NAM has ice ice baby for central Illinois, much of Indiana (possibly skirting Hoosier), north central Kentucky and southwest Ohio.  This is at hour 84 of the 12k NAM.

 might be even a little more icy with this new and unexpected blanket of snow covering most of Central and southern OH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wagons north.  Another tick north on the 18z GFS.  The I-80 corridor in Iowa into IL looking to see very little if any snow from the WAA side.  Still probably a few more ticks north to go to match the Euro.  For those of us south of the WAA band, we'll have to hope the main energy ejecting Sat does something.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the main piece of energy doesn't put down as much snow, at least for those west of Lake Michigan.  Still about .6 to .8 liquid in southern Wisconsin. 

If the second piece of energy stays weaker then areas of Illinois and Iowa might not get much snow at all

 

Edit:  Looks like the main southern stream vort max doesn't dig as much and gets strung out.  correct me if I'm wrong

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brant Miller is an old radio personality filling in as a weather person. I have never paid attention to him. And I know Gil quite well; his forecasts have been posted on this board for the 10 plus years I've been here. Still,Would have to hear the whole forecast, but the posting has the caveat " a lot can change."Posting the GFS, and saying plenty can and will change is not terribly irresponsible in my book. Based on that look I'm only getting 16" not 18". I'm discounting the Euro- it's not snowy enough for me. LOT had a nice AFD on the potential for Friday.

edit: based on 18 Z GFS I'm going with 7". I'll update my new total after tonight's GFS run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 

I just saw a 12z euro snowfall map and it shows no one in our sub getting over 6" synoptic from this.   Kind of hard to believe.

The euro has been garbage for a couple years now with its new upgrades.... the gfs has been doing better if you know how to correct for it's overamping things in the mid/long range that it's been doing since it's "hi-res" upgrade a few years ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol, I think some of you guys have gotten spoiled based on what's been happening in the past several years or so.  Now, there are some people who have a legitimate gripe about missing out on good storms but you don't have to go back very far (say parts of the 1980s and 1990s) where it was like pulling teeth trying to even get 6-12" storms, let alone GHD 1/GHD 2 type storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

lol, I think some of you guys have gotten spoiled based on what's been happening in the past several years or so.  Now, there are some people who have a legitimate gripe about missing out on good storms but you don't have to go back very far (say parts of the 1980s and 1990s) where it was like pulling teeth trying to even get 6-12" storms, let alone GHD 1/GHD 2 type storms.

I think us Central Illinois folks have a legitimate gripe, we missed on GHD1/GHD2, and many other 6-12" events ORD-DET corridor has cashed in on. 

Dont get me wrong the 11.9" that fell on 3-25-13 was awesome, but it was gone in 2 days, I think the best storm I can recall in the last 3 years was the "Polar vortex blizzard" even that only dropped 8" but the winds and the high ratio of the snow, and brutal cold made this storm epic. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lots of snow on the ground and bitter cold temps to start, I'm liking the potential with this. Even if it does rain, the cold rushes in so fast it would merely soak right into the deep snowpack. 

My exact thoughts on this. Front end thump and then it's all just qpf soaking into the snow pack. I look forward to your snowpack water content analysis on Monday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm guessing you were looking at a 10:1 map.

I think you're right, it was wxbell.   What surprised me was although they use 10:1 they also count anything that falls during 850 temps freezing or below as snow, so on that alone you'd expect a lot more "pinks and purples" showing up.    Unless they've corrected that aspect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Chambana said:

I think us Central Illinois folks have a legitimate gripe, we missed on GHD1/GHD2, and many other 6-12" events ORD-DET corridor has cashed in on. 

Dont get me wrong the 11.9" that fell on 3-25-13 was awesome, but it was gone in 2 days, I think the best storm I can recall in the last 3 years was the "Polar vortex blizzard" even that only dropped 8" but the winds and the high ratio of the snow, and brutal cold made this storm epic. 

Yeah, over toward Indy as well.  Climo says you shouldn't expect as much as Chicago/Detroit, but it's been a particularly glaring difference as of late.

I grew up near the area I'm living in now, and I'm old enough to remember the bad periods back in the late 80s and into the 90s.  I remember a good storm sometime in the late 80s and another one around the mid 90s, but besides that, a 6" snow seemed huge to me.  I had never seen anything close to the January 1999 blizzard until it happened.  Ever since then, it's been a pretty good stretch of storms... even while I was living in that relative snow hell that is LAF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could be a close call as to whether it ever gets above freezing around here.  If the latest runs are right, the answer is likely yes, but it would probably take a 50+ mile northward shift to really get well above (still well within the realm of possibility at this point) and melt off the paved surfaces.  

For messaging purposes, one thing that hopefully somebody is thinking of is that while it is going to be the weekend, there should be more people that are out and about than a typical weekend with it being the last weekend before Christmas Eve/Day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, over toward Indy as well.  Climo says you shouldn't expect as much as Chicago/Detroit, but it's been a particularly glaring difference as of late.

I grew up near the area I'm living in now, and I'm old enough to remember the bad periods back in the late 80s and into the 90s.  I remember a good storm sometime in the late 80s and another one around the mid 90s, but besides that, a 6" snow seemed huge to me.  I had never seen anything close to the January 1999 blizzard until it happened.  Ever since then, it's been a pretty good stretch of storms... even while I was living in that relative snow hell that is LAF.

My family moved back here in '76 from Apple Valley Ca. so the next 2 years spoiled me.  I was like wow, snow without mountains.  What is this strange place I live now?  But yeah, the 80's sucked, and not just because of the lack of snow :whistle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

lol, I think some of you guys have gotten spoiled based on what's been happening in the past several years or so.  Now, there are some people who have a legitimate gripe about missing out on good storms but you don't have to go back very far (say parts of the 1980s and 1990s) where it was like pulling teeth trying to even get 6-12" storms, let alone GHD 1/GHD 2 type storms.

Good point.  I remember getting excited when there was winter storm warnings issued for the 4 or more inches of snow.   Still plenty early and we've already done much better compared to last December.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...