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December 16-18 Winter Storm Threat


Hoosier

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This run does give us some 3-4 inch love on the backside (no pun intended).

7 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

Meh...we'll see how spoiled we are once this system passes. I can do without the rain/ice, thank you very much!

Yes, no Ice.  We've been pretty lucky recently considering.  Plus I sold my old generator this summer so now it's bound to happen lol.

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This run does give us some 3-4 inch love on the backside (no pun intended).

Yes, no Ice.  We've been pretty lucky recently considering.  Plus I sold my old generator this summer so now it's bound to happen lol.


If I never saw another ice storm in my life I would be happy.

OT for this system but to go along with the theme, we may see an over performer tomorrow here.


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7 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Its just going to be plain boring rain. I guarantee it just works that way for us. Its cold for a few days 20-30 degrees then when a big system comes in it warms up rains for a day rinse repeat

Still time for it to trend better but yeah, not looking good down there.  I actually think that's a good way of playing the expectations game... go in expecting nothing so that you can be surprised if you do get something.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still time for it to trend better but yeah, not looking good down there.  I actually think that's a good way of playing the expectations game... go in expecting nothing so that you can be surprised if you do get something.

Great advice from the former LAF King of Pingers :D I don't expect much out of these storms this early in the winter down here so I'm always surprised.  Now when it does it in the middle of January, that's another story.  We usually do better with clippers down here anyway which btw,  we haven't had a good clipper run down here since you and ChicagoWX moved.   I'll take a surprise couple of inches tomorrow.   Back to this weekend the GFS is trending ever so slightly with a less northward expanse of the warm air.  If that keeps up could increase our chances for something decent on the back end.

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GFS still juiced.

Looks like Friday night-Saturday morning in the western lakes followed by a second system saturday midday.  Seems to be splitting the systems again.  Crazy winds on Sunday IN / OH/ MI

Still some crazy amounts IA east to MI/extreme N IN and OH.

 

If there's something there this weekend, which it seems, this is a wild start to the season.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Sorry for an imby post but I've never seen anything like that run...verbatim, a good 10" of snow followed by an inch of rain and then ending as snow.

 

Imagine if it ends up being mostly snow, some areas back to the northwest get absolutely destroyed.

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12 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Yuck! Imagine the glacier you will have with what snow is left though...

Hard to imagine what the aftermath would look like if it actually played out that way. That particular outcome though is just so hard to pull off that I probably would be doubting it 24 hours out, let alone 96+ lol

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z Euro is "relatively" ho hum.  Not the huge event like the GFS.

Hard to get a read on the Euro because it does have a decent amount of QPF with the WAA stuff but the ratios are definitely not 10:1. Probably closer to 15:1 or even higher especially initially. What happens after that is a convoluted mess, but the Euro was like that with the last system right up to the day of the system.

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10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Hard to get a read on the Euro because it does have a decent amount of QPF with the WAA stuff but the ratios are definitely not 10:1. Probably closer to 15:1 or even higher especially initially. What happens after that is a convoluted mess, but the Euro was like that with the last system right up to the day of the system.

It's a complex upper level setup so who knows how the nuances will play out.  A couple things we can say with high confidence is that this looks pretty prolonged and there will be a nice LLJ feeding in.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

It's a complex upper level setup so who knows how the nuances will play out.  A couple things we can say with high confidence is that this looks pretty prolonged and there will be a nice LLJ feeding in.

Yeah and I think the WAA snows will yield nicely, what happens after that is anyone's guess at this point. Most models are advertising at least warning criteria WAA snows for most along and north of 80, beyond that anything can happen.

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GFS a tick north with the WAA wing precip late Fri.  Sharp gradient through the DMX/DVN cwas much like last system.  Northeast IL buried again.  The Euro has been much further north with the WAA wing, more towards MN into WI, so we'll see if the GFS continues to trend towards that in coming solutions.

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