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EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions

ChescoWx

By ChescoWx,
in Philadelphia Region

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Newman said:

Shoot, I keep forgetting about tomorrows "2-4 on grassy surfaces" storm and honestly, I won't even care tomorrow about it either. Just give me Tuesday already! 

Oh man careful Newman many lessons should have been learned over the last years failed chances, just look at the MA regions sitting pretty 72hrs ago for Sundays storm, enjoy your 3-5" snow it might be all the snow you get

 

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penndotguy

penndotguy

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Oh man careful Newman many lessons should have been learned over the last years failed chances, just look at the MA regions sitting pretty 72hrs ago for Sundays storm, enjoy your 3-5" snow it might be all the snow you get

 

You took the words right outta my mouth, one at a time I'm sure, almost certain Tuesday will not be what we are seeing on the models now never good to be in the bullseye :yikes:

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

my house has overperformed all year compared to other areas in the region so I'm thinking this is going to be the one where we do worse than areas to our north. not liking how warm it is today, and  i just have a feeling that it is going to take longer to change over than progged like what happened with the storm in February. further north, i'd feel pretty good for 3 inches but it's going to have to snow friggin hard for it to stick. it does look like some good rates will be there though luckily so once it flips, it should accumulate.  going with 1-3" from Central Bucks county south, and 2-4" north of that with lollipops of 5-6" in higher elevations. This could be the last snow event of the season so going to take it for what it's worth. would be happy if I can squeeze out a little over 2 inches to get me to a below average but respectable 16 inches on the year. not awful compared to my 23 inch norm and considering this could have been an all time stinker if we didn't catch a few breaks here.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

as for tuesday, if the trend of ramping up continues the coastal plain is going to have issues with precip type. I can also see this pulling a march 01 and coming together too late and too far east for anyone except NE to cash in. being in the perfect spot at 120 hours out is almost a curse as it will certainly change and small shifts either way can mean a cold rain for the coastal plain while NW burbs get a HECS or a whiff for everyone except NE. it's nice to see that all of the models have something and it will be interesting to watch unfold but it is far from a lock at this point and I'd caution anyone to get their hopes up. enjoy tomorrow's storm first then focus on tuesday. very solid chance tomorrow could be the last snow we get until next year.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
18z GFS has everything except John Bolaris lmao

 

Storm Tuesday has massive bust potential. 4.5 days to go.....an eternity. My gut feeling....this is going to overamplify and go from a thump to rain even for some N and W of I95. I already see the trends on guidance....the hints are not even subtle imo. System looks like it wants to form right over OBX maybe even inside of Hatteras then go due North-Northeast from there along the immediate coast. Never a good track for I95 and immediate NW burbs let alone during the daytime in mid-March. Will probably even tug West as often happens with these more intense storms if it gets captured. I dunno.....I really don't like being pessimistic but these big March snows are rare for a reason. There's a reason they are 1 in 20/25 year storms. I guess with that said you can argue we are due and heck, Tuesday IS March 13, a famous storm anniversary, so there's that. But quite honestly, how many times have we ever been in the bulls-eye at this range with zero changes leading up to the actual event? It just doesn't happen.

Here's hoping tomorrow can overproduce.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Surprised no one mentioned it here - 18z GFS was great! Now if we could only hold the solution for a few more days. I know that's a long time in model world.

If this were 18z Sunday runs, I honestly still wouldn't feel comfortable. 6z Monday, yeah....warm fuzzies probably.

Lucy is working overtime after a brief mid-late Feb hiatus.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Man...oh man,,,rough Winter, Not that clown again.

I will never forget the scroll across the screen in advance of that storm. It was at that point I said, "Wow, this is huge for the news to be this aggressive......this is really going to happen". Two to four feet of snow they said! I literally had a sense of calmness come over me....a legit warm fuzzy feeling overcame. It was at this point around 1PM the day prior that I basically told myself I could relax, I wouldn't need to be glued to the PC tracking models, this was a done deal.....nothing is going to stop this, etc. I mean heck, even absolute WORST case scenario we were going to have at least 2' of snow. I even gave them the benefit of a doubt and said ok, even if this somehow shifts a little a "bust" based off that forecast we still end up with a foot. Geez, this was going to be great!! This was it, finally happening. "It's in God's hands now" I thought to myself. I'm going to witness the greatest storm in modern history in our area. I thought about telling my grandkids the stories of how the drifts were up to the 2nd story windows, how the snow piled halfway up the front door to the windows. I pictured the mountains of snow in the streets from plows, etc. These would be the highest and most prolific snow piles EVER!!! I mean, the media would NEVER stick their necks out like this proclaiming "the biggest snowfall from one single storm in the history of documented meteorology is bearing down on the region....get out now and get your last minute preparations finalized.....do NOT take these warnings lightly....grab up batteries, bottled water, canned goods, etc". They spoke with such certainty telling us many would be trapped in their homes for several days, roads would be shut down indefinitely, death for some would be likely due to emergency vehicles being stranded. Totals between 2-4' (iirc) were going to be common and widespread across SE PA. What could possibly go wrong in under 24-36 hours I told myself. Wow, this is amazing.....what a feeling.

Total accumulation for mby in Delco was under 1" graupel/sleet mix.

Speechless. Lessons learned. Forever haunted by this. Etched in my mind forever. Never was the same after that. When guidance shows over 15" imby from a March storm, I now permanently have a twitch in my right eye. I've sought psychiatric help from a doctor over the years....still, the twitch exists and the pain still lingers ;-)

83df781536d2f67fdb388e148298036e.jpg

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I will never forget the scroll across the screen in advance of that storm. It was at that point I said, "Wow, this is huge for the news to be this aggressive......this is really going to happen". Two to four feet of snow they said! I literally had a sense of calmness come over me....a legit warm fuzzy feeling overcame. It was at this point around 1PM the day prior that I basically told myself I could relax, I wouldn't need to be glued to the PC tracking models, this was a done deal.....nothing is going to stop this, etc. I mean heck, even absolute WORST case scenario we were going to have at least 2' of snow. I even gave them the benefit of a doubt and said ok, even if this somehow shifts a little a "bust" based off that forecast we still end up with a foot. Geez, this was going to be great!! This was it, finally happening. "It's in God's hands now" I thought to myself. I'm going to witness the greatest storm in modern history in our area. I thought about telling my grandkids the stories of how the drifts were up to the 2nd story windows, how the snow piled halfway up the front door to the windows. I pictured the mountains of snow in the streets from plows, etc. These would be the highest and most prolific snow piles EVER!!! I mean, the media would NEVER stick their necks out like this proclaiming "the biggest snowfall from one single storm in the history of documented meteorology is bearing down on the region....get out now and get your last minute preparations finalized.....do NOT take these warnings lightly....grab up batteries, bottled water, canned goods, etc". They spoke with such certainty telling us many would be trapped in their homes for several days, roads would be shut down indefinitely, death for some would be likely due to emergency vehicles being stranded. Totals between 2-4' (iirc) were going to be common and widespread across SE PA. What could possibly go wrong in under 24-36 hours I told myself. Wow, this is amazing.....what a feeling.

Total accumulation for mby in Delco was under 1" graupel/sleet mix.

Speechless. Lessons learned. Forever haunted by this. Etched in my mind forever. Never was the same after that. When guidance shows over 15" imby from a March storm, I now permanently have a twitch in my right eye. I've sought psychiatric help from a doctor over the years....still, the twitch exists and the pain still lingers ;-)

83df781536d2f67fdb388e148298036e.jpg

For me, there were no weather boards to verify these forecasts.  It was the weather channel and the local news outlets.  Absolutely no analysis from a "red tager" to keep us with reality. 

Experiencing that bust was awful, a complete disaster. 

Watching that scroll that Ralph mentioned was just epic, if I'm not mistaken the word epic was used in the scroll at some point. 

Weenies today would not have been able to handle it. 

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jrodd321

jrodd321

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I will never forget the scroll across the screen in advance of that storm. It was at that point I said, "Wow, this is huge for the news to be this aggressive......this is really going to happen". Two to four feet of snow they said! I literally had a sense of calmness come over me....a legit warm fuzzy feeling overcame. It was at this point around 1PM the day prior that I basically told myself I could relax, I wouldn't need to be glued to the PC tracking models, this was a done deal.....nothing is going to stop this, etc. I mean heck, even absolute WORST case scenario we were going to have at least 2' of snow. I even gave them the benefit of a doubt and said ok, even if this somehow shifts a little a "bust" based off that forecast we still end up with a foot. Geez, this was going to be great!! This was it, finally happening. "It's in God's hands now" I thought to myself. I'm going to witness the greatest storm in modern history in our area. I thought about telling my grandkids the stories of how the drifts were up to the 2nd story windows, how the snow piled halfway up the front door to the windows. I pictured the mountains of snow in the streets from plows, etc. These would be the highest and most prolific snow piles EVER!!! I mean, the media would NEVER stick their necks out like this proclaiming "the biggest snowfall from one single storm in the history of documented meteorology is bearing down on the region....get out now and get your last minute preparations finalized.....do NOT take these warnings lightly....grab up batteries, bottled water, canned goods, etc". They spoke with such certainty telling us many would be trapped in their homes for several days, roads would be shut down indefinitely, death for some would be likely due to emergency vehicles being stranded. Totals between 2-4' (iirc) were going to be common and widespread across SE PA. What could possibly go wrong in under 24-36 hours I told myself. Wow, this is amazing.....what a feeling.

Total accumulation for mby in Delco was under 1" graupel/sleet mix.

Speechless. Lessons learned. Forever haunted by this. Etched in my mind forever. Never was the same after that. When guidance shows over 15" imby from a March storm, I now permanently have a twitch in my right eye. I've sought psychiatric help from a doctor over the years....still, the twitch exists and the pain still lingers ;-)

83df781536d2f67fdb388e148298036e.jpg

That one hit home Raphie. I was only 12 for this storm, but I remember the disappointment as well. It sucked. 

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JSharp

JSharp

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I will never forget the scroll across the screen in advance of that storm. It was at that point I said, "Wow, this is huge for the news to be this aggressive......this is really going to happen". Two to four feet of snow they said! I literally had a sense of calmness come over me....a legit warm fuzzy feeling overcame. It was at this point around 1PM the day prior that I basically told myself I could relax, I wouldn't need to be glued to the PC tracking models, this was a done deal.....nothing is going to stop this, etc. I mean heck, even absolute WORST case scenario we were going to have at least 2' of snow. I even gave them the benefit of a doubt and said ok, even if this somehow shifts a little a "bust" based off that forecast we still end up with a foot. Geez, this was going to be great!! This was it, finally happening. "It's in God's hands now" I thought to myself. I'm going to witness the greatest storm in modern history in our area. I thought about telling my grandkids the stories of how the drifts were up to the 2nd story windows, how the snow piled halfway up the front door to the windows. I pictured the mountains of snow in the streets from plows, etc. These would be the highest and most prolific snow piles EVER!!! I mean, the media would NEVER stick their necks out like this proclaiming "the biggest snowfall from one single storm in the history of documented meteorology is bearing down on the region....get out now and get your last minute preparations finalized.....do NOT take these warnings lightly....grab up batteries, bottled water, canned goods, etc". They spoke with such certainty telling us many would be trapped in their homes for several days, roads would be shut down indefinitely, death for some would be likely due to emergency vehicles being stranded. Totals between 2-4' (iirc) were going to be common and widespread across SE PA. What could possibly go wrong in under 24-36 hours I told myself. Wow, this is amazing.....what a feeling.

Total accumulation for mby in Delco was under 1" graupel/sleet mix.

Speechless. Lessons learned. Forever haunted by this. Etched in my mind forever. Never was the same after that. When guidance shows over 15" imby from a March storm, I now permanently have a twitch in my right eye. I've sought psychiatric help from a doctor over the years....still, the twitch exists and the pain still lingers ;-)

83df781536d2f67fdb388e148298036e.jpg

I was 10 at the time of the infamous Bolaris Storm of the Century. Worst experience of my young life.  I would rank that up there with the death of my grandfather.  I was so pumped for a 2-3 feet storm. I only saw 2-3 inches over a 48 hour period. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

When I got into internet weather in the mid nineties it was the ne.weather bulletin board and there was a small group of maybe a dozen of us that used to "chat" on mirc (#neweather). One of my comrades Marcus (screen name Vortmax) eventually migrated us over to #easternweather on chat in the late nineties and finally started the easternuswx forum. I believe in March 2001 our small group had migrated to the eastern forum iirc....my years and the social media expansion all kind of blend together during that era. But regardless, we were all in tight contact leading up to March 2001. DT was in our crew, Ian from the MA subforum, Scott Simard, Jerry from the New England subforum, a few others that were also red taggers or at least knew their stuff. We all had access to the models at the time and saw the threat. We saw the numbers guidance was spitting out. We also knew we were walking a tightrope down this way as there were subtle signals this had high bust potential and could fall apart for us. None of us were sure what was going to happen as it was never a lock. It wasnt until Bolaris issued "the scroll" that I bought into the seriousness and the potential. I remember almost immediately after it scrolled across I think the AVN model came in and something was clearly off. Phasing wasnt happening as early....timing was off....totals were cut significantly and iirc it was more due to mixing being shown more than anything. The 0z suite came in that night and it was game over. I remember guidance showing the storm exploding too late and specifically remember hoping the AVN wraparound of 10" would be our saving grace. The rest is history.

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hazwoper

hazwoper

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When I got into internet weather in the mid nineties it was the ne.weather bulletin board and there was a small group of maybe a dozen of us that used to "chat" on mirc (#neweather). One of my comrades Marcus (screen name Vortmax) eventually migrated us over to #easternweather on chat in the late nineties and finally started the easternuswx forum. I believe in March 2001 our small group had migrated to the eastern forum iirc....my years and the social media expansion all kind of blend together during that era. But regardless, we were all in tight contact leading up to March 2001. DT was in our crew, Ian from the MA subforum, Scott Simard, Jerry from the New England subforum, a few others that were also red taggers or at least knew their stuff. We all had access to the models at the time and saw the threat. We saw the numbers guidance was spitting out. We also knew we were walking a tightrope down this way as there were subtle signals this had high bust potential and could fall apart for us. None of us were sure what was going to happen as it was never a lock. It wasnt until Bolaris issued "the scroll" that I bought into the seriousness and the potential. I remember almost immediately after it scrolled across I think the AVN model came in and something was clearly off. Phasing wasnt happening as early....timing was off....totals were cut significantly and iirc it was more due to mixing being shown more than anything. The 0z suite came in that night and it was game over. I remember guidance showing the storm exploding too late and specifically remember hoping the AVN wraparound of 10" would be our saving grace. The rest is history.

Ahhh.  Eastern.  I was on TriState weather before jumping to Eastern.

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