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ChescoPaWxman

EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions

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This is trending quicker and warmer. NAM is a cold rain, nary a flake. In and out by very early Thursday AM. Speed of i coming impulse doesnt allow cold air to bleed in. Never liked these situations where we are waiting for the cold air to arrive....usually doesnt pan out. Not impressed. GFS up next.

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GFS looks good for north and west, though it does look like the cold air has retreated some.  My issue is that the r/s line is probably going to be very tight, and if this winter finishes off with 33 and rainy that will be just a final kick to a blah season.  Some areas of my lawn are already starting to grow.

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Track is similar to 06z, but qpf is .75" more over the 24hr period.  Maybe increased precip rates dropping the cold air?  Either way, what ever snow falls will definitely be below 10-1 ratios.

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8" and the GFS locked into the scenario just 72hrs away giving me zero confidence is quite sad.

Don't fall for it the GEM has nothing...anywhere..Weak low pressure scooting off South Carolina. What is happening to the models.

 

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Nevermind I found NAVGEM, same thing as GFS, it was a beast @ 00z & weaker @ 6z 


Yeah 6z wasnt out when I posted, was going off of 0z. CMC doesnt even have a surface wave so there's that. Have a hunch the final outcome is going to be weak sauce with folks South of LV praying for heavier rates and a changeover.

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After looking the 6z navgem, track took quite a shift South....far enough South it keeps us all mostly snow. Has quite an expansive precip shield to the N and W of the slp and snow (light) lingers quite a bit longer as upper level energy passes over. Another interesting solution. Models have almost every possible scenario and we r only 72 hours out.



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Don't get invested yet 6z runs show how much this can change, this thing is so close and fast behind the bigger storm in California that becomes the big rainer into the lakes it has Lucy written all over it for us have to give it another 24hrs.

 

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I will take my 6-8" of NAM digital snow and welcome an early spring on Friday if this were to verify!

Really, what's the point? Either snow and have at least a 4-7 day cold spell to enjoy it or just stay 50F til spring and call winter over. Between shoveling/snow blowing/ scraping/car looking like white crap.... is it worth it for a day or so? IMO...no, unless it's a massive hit.

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