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EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions


ChescoWx

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Just now, RedSky said:

Ralph I been feeling fully burned out over winter with the dissapointing miller b and told myself don't even look anymore spring is almost here, but I like my digital snowstorms that thing is an early showing PDIII

 

It is alone aside from some GEFS members (havent seen the EPS) BUT there were ZERO GEFS members with this at 0Z so there's that. Only takes 1 to start a trend. Let's do this.

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1 minute ago, AnthonyDabbundo said:

Correction on that: took a look at wxbell and it hooks into SNE, too far east for us.  But still, getting closer and closer to what we need. Bomb or bust.

Really? We miss the snow because it's east and they get rain because it's west that would be unbelievable lol

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Look again the bigger energy wraps in through the lakes north stream and phases it off the Jersey coast 
 

Still looks like a Miller A to me, but it's really not worth arguing over. I will say in my studies that very little reference was made to phasing or 500mb upper air patterns when determining the differences between a Miller A and a Miller B. The Miller-type storm is identified almost entirely based on surface features and subsequent surface low pressure track.

A Miller A is generally a single slp coming out of the Gulf States of the GOM itself and traveling just off of and up the Eastern Seaboard. A Miller B (base Miller B, not hybrid of the 2), is a dual low scenario when one surface feature tracks towards the Appalachians and then redevelops as a second slp off the coast USUALLY in response to strong surface high pressure to the North causing said redevelopment. Storm then either tracks NE or ENE (out-to-sea) in general.

Maybe what we are seeing on the Euro is a hybrid? But I stick to my idea that this Euro run verbatim is a Miller A with a single slp and no surface physics evident to cause a redevelopment of the SS low defining it as a Miller B. 

12-3-2013-12-36-27-PM.png 

When I think Miller B I usually associate it with a strong surface high over Northern NE or SE Canada causing strong CAD between a Western low and an Eastern (redeveloping) low and plenty of mixing in between.

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NYC is trending toward a weak Nemo repeat, good luck making out being on the southern fringe of a Miller B with the ECM. Just when I thought the winter was as terrible as it could get the  Nemo storm I managed to block from memory pops up. Yeah never mind the Thursday debacle being the worst last minute fold in decades, Nemo was only four years ago. Miller B southwest quadrant was suppose to nail the north burbs here with 8-12" and ended up with something like 3.5"

 

 

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51 minutes ago, RedSky said:

NYC is trending toward a weak Nemo repeat, good luck making out being on the southern fringe of a Miller B with the ECM. Just when I thought the winter was as terrible as it could get the  Nemo storm I managed to block from memory pops up. Yeah never mind the Thursday debacle being the worst last minute fold in decades, Nemo was only four years ago. Miller B southwest quadrant was suppose to nail the north burbs here with 8-12" and ended up with something like 3.5"

 

 

This storm was the worst debacle for me ever. January 2015. NWS had me getting out here 10-14 inches at one point and they slowly kept dropping it. 24 hours out, they had me at 6-8 inches. Ended up with flurries. Storm formed too far north and east and the associated clipper that redeveloped still had snow in western PA that stole all of the moisture and created SE PA as the subsidence zone. It hurts to talk about this one. I will always remember this one when Miller B talk comes up.

 

Euro January 2015.jpg

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53 minutes ago, Newman said:

This storm was the worst debacle for me ever. January 2015. NWS had me getting out here 10-14 inches at one point and they slowly kept dropping it. 24 hours out, they had me at 6-8 inches. Ended up with flurries. Storm formed too far north and east and the associated clipper that redeveloped still had snow in western PA that stole all of the moisture and created SE PA as the subsidence zone. It hurts to talk about this one. I will always remember this one when Miller B talk comes up.

 

Euro January 2015.jpg

I see you kept that nightmare on your hard drive as some form of battle scar. I remember that map the only thing good about that abomination was the rug wasn't pulled out in the last hours but nice slow and gradual the last 48hrs, and of course it came in a good winter which made it easier to get over. Nemo in 2013 which was right around this time in February was the storm to save what had been a lackluster winter. It saved everybody's winter from about 50 miles northeast of here north. Trade that winter for this one with no second thoughts at least I had 20" up to this date that year.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

This storm was the worst debacle for me ever. January 2015. NWS had me getting out here 10-14 inches at one point and they slowly kept dropping it. 24 hours out, they had me at 6-8 inches. Ended up with flurries. Storm formed too far north and east and the associated clipper that redeveloped still had snow in western PA that stole all of the moisture and created SE PA as the subsidence zone. It hurts to talk about this one. I will always remember this one when Miller B talk comes up.

 

Euro January 2015.jpg

Berks and Lancaster Counties never do good with Miller B's.  We're both to far south and west to ever get in on the action.  I still remember the 2000 Jan  Miller B (I think thats when it was) disaster we were supposed to get 12 to 16 and ended up with a flurry.

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