Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions


ChescoWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 985
  • Created
  • Last Reply
On 12/13/2016 at 2:06 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nvermind, just saw Euro and answered my own questions. Mid to upper 60s Sunday. Beautiful! I can get some yardwork done :-D
 

Hey Ralph, I asked this over in the NY forum but figured you'd have a better answer for me. Got a flight out of Philly 7:45 am on Saturday morning. What are my chances here? Are you (or anyone else in here) experienced with PHL's handling of inclement weather? Never flew out of Philly so I'm not sure at all. Thanks in advance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, RUMG11 said:

Hey Ralph, I asked this over in the NY forum but figured you'd have a better answer for me. Got a flight out of Philly 7:45 am on Saturday morning. What are my chances here? Are you (or anyone else in here) experienced with PHL's handling of inclement weather? Never flew out of Philly so I'm not sure at all. Thanks in advance. 

Flew out last year in a similar storm, 1-3 inches, and had no delay. You should be fine.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro has an interesting 'event' around the 22nd. Looks cold enough, favorable track to the South. Euro is deadly in this range. I'm 100% on board. Feeling very optimistic today!

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk
 

I would be on board but Lucy melts that fake snow under a baked potato SE ridge by Christmas

btw the ridge will verify but the snow will go poof

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Now if they'd just "can" those clowns from KYW tv...

Mitch is great, posts all the time on PhillyWx forums!

I know he and Walt used to post here too (along with Tony, et al).  Mike does pop in here every once in awhile.

Will see if PV blobs make any more appearances this winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heating bill will get a break after this brief cold snap. Massive +NAO takes hold with a deep and darn-near permanent stratospheric PV positioned in North Central Canada. These features to remain dominant thru at least mid January. Progressive pattern in the Eastern US with zero NA blocking will be the theme. Cutters to the N and W the main storm track for the foreseeable future. This may or may not be the dominant pattern the entire winter....I wish I could say one way or the other. What I can tell you is that it will take a major stratospheric warming event in the right place to dislodge that stratospheric PV over N Central Canada and change this pattern and those events are hard to come by and not often well forecast. And even if we do get a SSWE it doesnt mean the pattern will just flip and become favorable. Alot has to go right for us to break out of where ALL guidance has us heading for the next 3 weeks. Sucks we are wasting a huge chunk of climatologically favorable time of year for winter weather. Wish I had better news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just did some reading online about SWE's as I admittedly don't know as much as others here probably do. The biggest problem that I see with getting a SWE to flip the pattern is that there is generally a 30-45 day lag time in real weather. So "IF" the LR guidance is right on the +AO/+NAO torchy pattern thru mid January and "IF" we rely on a SWE to flip the pattern and "IF" that SWE takes place mid January (which no progs I see even suggest at this point) and "IF" that SWE takes place in the right spot in our Hemisphere, then we would possibly be looking to at least mid February before we see apparent weather influences in our part of the world. Whole lotta ifs and of course a huge SLP anomaly could shift the pattern somewhere but with such a strong stratospheric PV locked in place for the foreseeable future, it will likely take more than just a big storm to significantly shift the pattern. No panic, it is what it is, but things look poor in the LR IMHO....no sugar-coating it.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some better signals for a pattern change with N Atl blocking showing up on the GEFS for the LR. GEFS even have a signal for possible wintry weather sometime around the 30th of December with a ridge out West and a trof diving into the Mississippi Valley. Maybe we can muster a rogue/transient snow event in this midst of the "thaw"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...