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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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47 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Can't really tell if it's still sliding north or just growing wider. Pretty nice looking band at the moment. Radar looks like it's just about to start effecting north of 20A.


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Yeah I told you the winds would really mess the band up around midnight. Has been snowing pretty good here for last hour

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The flow on radar is starting to look pretty light. I wonder if it even has enough to make it up to the metro before it collapses into the lake. 


You might be right. Looking at CLE radar the upstream feeders are drying right up and almost gone. That advisory for Northern Erie is going to bust. What's left of the band is back below 20A. If we get enough to cover the grass here tonight I'd be surprised. Hopefully the synoptic event tomorrow doesn't dud out.


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7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

And to ice the cake BUF AFD is shutting us out on the LES for mid week. Flow starting 270 veering to 300 by end of the week.
Ugh the agony!


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I'm revising down my over/under prediction for seasonal snowfall at BUF on the solstice to 4.5 inches. What a miserable run of bad luck.

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11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

And to ice the cake BUF AFD is shutting us out on the LES for mid week. Flow starting 270 veering to 300 by end of the week.
Ugh the agony!

 

 
 

From what I've seen with the models, we might get some lake effect on Wednesday, if the environment is moist enough. It looks like the cold and wind direction should be there. But I definitely don't want to get my hopes up too much.

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From what I've seen with the models, we might get some lake effect on Wednesday, if the environment is moist enough. It looks like the cold and wind direction should be there. But I definitely don't want to get my hopes up too much.


It will be like this past event. We have the flow but the lake doesn't have anything to work with until our window is gone.
Looking longer out GFS is kinda blah but Canadian has some neat ideas.


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Hoping the GFS and EC are wrong about longer term.  Next Saturday looks fugly and per GFS longer range, next two systems after that are gully washers including Xmas as the mean storm track looks to be west of us with the SE ridge and central US trough being persistent.  A lot of time to have that change but I've been noticing that signal in the past several op runs.  Still, a better start to winter season than last years debacle.

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Hoping the GFS and EC are wrong about longer term.  Next Saturday looks fugly and per GFS longer range, next two systems after that are gully washers including Xmas as the mean storm track looks to be west of us with the SE ridge and central US trough being persistent.  A lot of time to have that change but I've been noticing that signal in the past several op runs.  Still, a better start to winter season than last years debacle.

We'll be fighting a SE ridge the whole season but I doubt it affects us but definitely bad news for points South like the MA crew. Some members might commit weather suicide!

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Not the biggest event, but should be a decent forum-wide event overall so figured I'd put one of these together but its been a while so will probably bust lol - esp. with the individual spot location amounts, but figured I'd give it a try. Going with the consensus of 3-7 across the board basically (generally increasing west to east within the range). Best chance (and I think there will be some reports) of exceeding 7" will be across higher terrain of southern Tug, southern Dacks, Catskills, and Upper Susquehanna/Leatherstocking regions where I have circled for locally up to 10". Would not be surprised to see at least some of those counties upgraded to a warning during the event.

Dec 11-12 Winter Storm.jpg

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8 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Not the biggest event, but should be a decent forum-wide event overall so figured I'd put one of these together but its been a while so will probably bust lol - esp. with the individual spot location amounts, but figured I'd give it a try. Going with the consensus of 3-7 across the board basically (generally increasing west to east within the range). Best chance (and I think there will be some reports) of exceeding 7" will be across higher terrain of southern Tug, southern Dacks, Catskills, and Upper Susquehanna/Leatherstocking regions where I have circled for locally up to 10". Would not be surprised to see at least some of those counties upgraded to a warning during the event.

Dec 11-12 Winter Storm.jpg

I like it, very professional looking!  Lets just hope it verifies

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20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I like it, very professional looking!  Lets just hope it verifies

Thanks, took a blank map and dressed it up in powerpoint. I gotta renew my subscription to get detailed Euro data, been procrastinating until something more significant comes along lol, but wasn't really able to use that model for this forecast. Where ever I bust, hopefully its low!

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Here are the final numbers of the lake effect event that just wrapped up.  Lake Erie was much more productive - solid 1-3 feet for a big chunk of southern Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.  

235
NOUS41 KBUF 111517
PNSBUF
NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-120317-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1017 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

THE FOLLOW ARE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE PROLONGED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT THAT BEGAN ON THURSDAY 12/08/16 AND ENDED ON SUNDAY
MORNING 12/11/16. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WIDELY VARIED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
   4 SW WEST ALMOND      13.4   850 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   BOLIVAR                7.0  1000 AM 12/10  3 DAY STORM TOTAL
   ALFRED                 6.8   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   1 E WHITESVILLE        5.7   650 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   2 NW BOLIVAR           4.0  1000 AM 12/09  PUBLIC

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
   CATTARAUGUS           36.0  1230 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   LITTLE VALLEY         34.7   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   NAPOLI                34.0   152 PM 12/10  PUBLIC
   ELLICOTTVILLE         30.0   122 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   PERRYSBURG            30.0   200 PM 12/10  COOP OBSERVER
   1 NNE HUMPHREY        27.5   700 PM 12/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   5 N ALLEGANY          22.0   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   1 ENE RANDOLPH        20.0   800 PM 12/10  COCORAHS
   1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE   19.3   853 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   SSE ISCHUA            17.3   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   3 W FRANKLINVILLE     16.0   514 PM 12/10  AMATEUR RADIO
   1 WSW OLEAN            6.5   730 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   1 NE OLEAN             5.2   900 AM 12/10  COCORAHS

...CAYUGA COUNTY...
   3 ESE CAYUGA           3.0   630 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   4 NNE CAYUGA           2.0   700 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   3 W PORT BYRON         2.0   800 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   8 SSE AUBURN           2.0   600 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   2 N AURORA             1.1   800 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   CAYUGA                 0.5   700 AM 12/09  COCORAHS

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
   2 E SINCLAIRVILLE     30.0   119 PM 12/10  STORM CHASER
   2 E JAMESTOWN         24.3   600 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   BEMUS POINT           24.0   454 PM 12/10  PUBLIC
   FREWSBURG             22.0   800 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   3 SSE FREWSBURG       22.0   430 PM 12/09  COCORAHS
   4 ENE JAMESTOWN       20.2   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   1 E JAMESTOWN         19.0  1130 PM 12/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   FINDLEY LAKE          17.8  1200 PM 12/10  PUBLIC
   FALCONER              17.0   507 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   2 SW FORESTVILLE      16.5   200 PM 12/10  COCORAHS
   FORESTVILLE           16.5   548 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   1 NW SHERMAN          15.0   121 PM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NE KENNEDY             9.0   600 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   1 WNW FREDONIA         9.0   500 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   2 NE RIPLEY            9.0   530 PM 12/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 SW DUNKIRK           5.4   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS

...ERIE COUNTY...
   EAST CONCORD          37.8  1100 PM 12/10  SNOW SPOTTER
   SPRINGVILLE           36.0  1208 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   5 NE SPRINGVILLE      27.1   900 PM 12/10  COOP OBSERVER
   SARDINIA              25.5  1015 PM 12/10  SNOW SPOTTER
   2 SE GLENWOOD         16.8   800 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   2 NE BOSTON           15.6   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   2 NE CONCORD          11.0   800 AM 12/09  STORM CHASER
   1 NE CONCORD          11.0   800 AM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   COLLINS               10.0   500 PM 12/08  POST OFFICE
   2 ENE COLDEN           8.7  1030 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   1 W COLDEN             5.3   730 AM 12/09  COOP OBSERVER
   2 S WALES              4.4   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   2 SSW BLASDELL         3.2   720 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   WSW HAMBURG            2.9   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   ESE HAMBURG            2.1   943 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   ENE EAST AURORA        1.9   800 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   3 WSW ELMA             1.6   700 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   1 SE ELMA CENTER       1.0   900 AM 12/08  COCORAHS
   5 WNW CLARENCE CENTE   0.1   700 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   BUFFALO AIRPORT          T   903 AM 12/10  ASOS

...GENESEE COUNTY...
   2 NE STAFFORD          3.5   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
   BLACK RIVER            8.0   800 AM 12/09  POST OFFICE
   WATERTOWN              6.2   800 AM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   EVANS MILLS            6.0   800 AM 12/09  SOCIAL MEDIA
   FORT DRUM              6.0   859 PM 12/08  FACEBOOK REPORT
   LORRAINE               4.0   800 AM 12/09  SOCIAL MEDIA
   ENE WEST CARTHAGE      4.0   930 PM 12/08  COCORAHS
   3 NE CARTHAGE          3.0   800 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   SE MANNSVILLE          2.5   700 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   2 SW CARTHAGE          2.5   745 AM 12/09  COCORAHS

...LEWIS COUNTY...
   HIGHMARKET            17.9   457 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE   16.0   600 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   1 E OSCEOLA           12.2   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   SW BEAVER FALLS        8.5   700 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   6 N CROGHAN            6.0   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   5 SSW HARRISVILLE      5.2   530 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   LOWVILLE               5.0   715 PM 12/08  PUBLIC
   2 W GLENFIELD          4.3   700 AM 12/09  COOP OBSERVER
   CROGHAN                4.0   800 AM 12/09  SOCIAL MEDIA

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
   4 WSW DANSVILLE        5.4   600 AM 12/11  COCORAHS

...MONROE COUNTY...
   1 E IRONDEQUOIT        4.5   752 AM 12/09  SOCIAL MEDIA
   IRONDEQUOIT            4.5   800 AM 12/09  SOCIAL MEDIA
   ROCHESTER AIRPORT      4.2   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   2 SW CHILI             4.0   648 AM 12/09  SOCIAL MEDIA
   ROCHESTER              3.2   800 AM 12/10  COOP OBSERVER
   CHURCHVILLE            3.0   800 AM 12/09  STATE OFFICIAL
   1 NW NORTH CHILI       2.0   800 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   5 W ROCHESTER          1.9   800 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   2 ENE BROCKPORT        1.6  1000 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   5 WNW ROCHESTER        1.6   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   4 SSE PITTSFORD        1.5   845 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   2 NE WEBSTER           1.5   800 PM 12/10  COOP OBSERVER
   3 W WEBSTER            1.3  1159 PM 12/10  COCORAHS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
   1 NE LOCKPORT          2.1   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   4 S LOCKPORT           1.1   700 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   NIAGARA FALLS AIRPOR   0.2   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND   0.2   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   2 E NORTH TONAWANDA    0.1  1200 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER

...ONTARIO COUNTY...
   3 W GENEVA             1.0   700 AM 12/09  COOP OBSERVER
   N PHELPS               0.1  1005 AM 12/10  TRAINED SPOTTER

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   HOLLEY                 4.0   800 AM 12/09  SOCIAL MEDIA
   MEDINA                 1.3   600 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
   8 NNW REDFIELD        17.0   500 PM 12/10  COCORAHS
   5 ESE OSWEGO          15.8   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   SE MINETTO            14.1   700 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   REDFIELD               8.0   800 AM 12/09  SOCIAL MEDIA
   6 NW REDFIELD          8.0   945 PM 12/08  POST TO TWITTER
   1 W OSWEGO             7.3   100 AM 12/11  7PM TO 1 AM SUNDAY.
   2 SSE PALERMO          6.7   600 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   W FULTON               6.7   800 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   3 NE BENNETTS BRIDGE   6.0   700 AM 12/09  COOP OBSERVER
   3 NE ALTMAR            6.0   800 AM 12/09  COOP OBSERVER
   1 NE PULASKI           5.5   600 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   4 SSE LACONA           4.3   800 AM 12/09  COCORAHS

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   2 NE MARION            2.6   836 AM 12/10  COCORAHS
   5 N NEWARK             2.5   800 AM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 SW WALWORTH          2.1   700 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   2 NW PALMYRA           1.5   900 AM 12/11  COCORAHS
   2 SE CLYDE-LOCK 26     1.5   700 AM 12/09  COOP OBSERVER
   3 ESE MACEDON          0.9   555 AM 12/10  COCORAHS

...WYOMING COUNTY...
   6 SW WARSAW           13.5   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   8 SW WARSAW           11.0   800 AM 12/09  COCORAHS
   ARCADE                10.0   430 PM 12/08  BROADCAST MEDIA
   3 N SILVER SPRINGS     9.1   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   3 W WYOMING            3.5   700 AM 12/11  COOP OBSERVER
   PORTAGEVILLE           3.5   700 AM 12/09  COOP OBSERVER

 

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