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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

I gotta say that starting tonight and lasting through this upcoming weekend we can see periods of snow each day with varying amounts for each specific area,  That Bomb that forms in the GOM is gonna be one for the record books I believe, but not really affecting the big cities of the Northeast but instead the Ski areas that need it and benefit from it will bear the brunt of this one.  Its this system that really initiates the CAA needed to get the Lakes going because obviously the lakes have cooled so the amount of CAA needed, to see a lake response, is higher than whats needed in say late November, early December. After the passage of this system the area will see much more of a dominant CAA regime which lasts into early next week.  We need to see how the bomb heads off to the NE to see how the BL winds react and what direction they will become and stay.  I'm thinking a long drawn out NW -WNW flow event with multiple bands kind of like what occurred late November but if the winds are a bit more westerly, then it could turn out to be a Fulton to Central Square special! Suffice to say, the area is gonna get quite snowy with the cold coming in stages with one colder than its predecessor!

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted
  
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED.
THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY
  THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE
  EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
  THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...1 TO 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY
  LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN PERSISTENT SNOWS.
  HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
  PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN PERSISTENT SNOWS
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

NYZ009-018-036-037-281800-
/O.NEW.KBGM.LE.Y.0009.161228T0000Z-161228T1800Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...SYRACUSE...HAMILTON...
ONEIDA...ROME...UTICA
247 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...A BAND OF SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER ONEIDA
  COUNTY AND DROP SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IMPACT MADISON AND
  ONONDAGA COUNTIES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
  WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS.
  VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES
  CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.
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Stash

Stash

Posted
Posted

I know there are not too many from Eastern Upstate NY here, but we may get a little something out of Thursday's storm.  Typically, a track over CC would be great for ENY, but this will be very compact and developing just a bit too late for us to get anything big.  We're used to it after the past several years.  Still, we'll take what we can get:)  Good luck to those that get in on the lake effect on the back side of this one!

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Kbuf 


The improvement in the large-scale environment will be most
pronounced over and downwind of Lake Ontario from later this
evening on through early Wednesday morning...where inversion
heights currently running around 4 kft will rise to around 8
kft...and where the deepest overall moisture will be in place.
This will allow initially weak/disorganized lake effect snow
showers across the Tug Hill to become better organized this
evening...before shifting southward into Oswego and far southern
Lewis counties overnight and early Wednesday morning as the low
level flow backs a bit more west-northwesterly. After that time...
the lake snows are expected to steadily weaken while shifting
back northward through the rest of Wednesday...as the burgeoning
surface high ushers in drier air...a lowering cap...and a
backing/increasingly sheared low level flow.

At this point...the large-scale environment and projected residence
times still look to be supportive of lower-end advisory-worthy
(4-6") accumulations across central Oswego and far southern Lewis
counties between tonight and Wednesday morning...for which a lake
effect snow advisory will be in place. Outside of the above areas...
any accums from the Lake Ontario LES should be sub-advisory in
nature...with little if any accumulation expected across most of
Jefferson county.

 

Thursday/Friday  

The entire event will be WNW flow, which will direct most of the
heavier snow into areas southeast of Lake Ontario. A secondary
trough will cross the lake Thursday evening, following that boundary
layer flow will become well aligned and lake induced equilibrium
levels will quickly rise to over 12Z feet. This should allow a band
of lake effect snow to become better organized by mid to late
evening mainly across Oswego County, with the band of snow quickly
settling a little south and focusing on southern Oswego, northern
Cayuga, and northern and eastern Wayne county later Thursday
night through Friday night. The snow will taper off later Friday
night as deeper moisture pulls away and inversion heights quickly
lower.

The northwest flow direction suggests an upstream connection to
Georgian Bay will develop at times, which often is responsible for
enhancing the Lake Ontario band under a WNW flow regime. Forecast
soundings show a deep layer of moisture and a deep dendritic crystal
growth layer, supporting heavy snow at times southeast of the
lake. With this in mind, we have issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch
for Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties Thursday evening
through Friday night.

In addition to the pure lake effect, some upslope, lake enhanced
snow will also be found across the Tug Hill and northwest facing
slopes of the western Adirondacks. Finally, the northwest flow will
also likely allow some lake effect snow to move onshore at the
western end of Lake Ontario, with light to moderate accumulations
possible along the lakeshore in Niagara and Orleans counties. In the
Rochester area, this flow direction tends to produce light to
moderate snow along the lakeshore near Hilton, and also in the
eastern suburbs with higher amounts staying east in Wayne County.
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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

You cant complain about the possibilities over the next 10 days as per the GFS. Couple shots of lake effect for the South Shore folk and some marginal synoptic hits in between..  All that leading up to what appears to be a fairly robust and "long" lasting arctic outbreak.  Lot of indices are dive bombing in the correct direction.

ao.sprd2.gif

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

I'm loving the way this Thursday into Friday is starting to look on pretty much all guidance.  Almost Synoptically identical to the November Event where as a secondary, or triple point low formed and the winds went NW-WNW cyclonically moist with plenty of synoptic scale moisture to work with as well as upper lake connections with Huron and GB and perhaps even Superior want to play ball. 

700rh.us_ne.png

This is pretty much the middle of the event time wise with a cyclonic moisture filled environment with a pretty much non existent cap, inversion to speak of. 

gfs_2016122718_066_43.25--76.25.png

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

The one thing I like better about this upcoming event is more of a sustained WNW wind..

 

Nws 

The entire event will be WNW flow, which will direct most of the
heavier snow into areas southeast of Lake Ontario. 


 This should allow a band
of lake effect snow to become better organized by mid to late
evening mainly across Oswego County, with the band of snow quickly
settling a little south and focusing on southern Oswego, northern
Cayuga, and northern and eastern Wayne county later Thursday
night through Friday night.

IMG_0278.PNG

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swva

swva

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'm loving the way this Thursday into Friday is starting to look on pretty much all guidance.  Almost Synoptically identical to the November Event where as a secondary, or triple point low formed and the winds went NW-WNW cyclonically moist with plenty of synoptic scale moisture to work with as well as upper lake connections with Huron and GB and perhaps even Superior want to play ball. 

700rh.us_ne.png

This is pretty much the middle of the event time wise with a cyclonic moisture filled environment with a pretty much non existent cap, inversion to speak of. 

gfs_2016122718_066_43.25--76.25.png

We racked up here in Redfield in that November event.  Not really expecting that again but could be a nice event.  Air is not as cold with this blast either.

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