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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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It just amazes me as nearly the whole Month of December leading up to XMAS has been outstanding including the last 2 weeks of November and once we approach the holiday season,  things flip to warm and its absolutely mind boggling as it happens way to often.  Why didn't it just stay friggin warm till the 2nd week of December and then flip to cold, but NO, Let the cold invade the Country as a whole but let it disappear just before the holidays except in the WEST, as if they need the friggen cold in WA, OR or Cali for that matter.

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Along with the cold, a LES storm would be causing all kinds of trouble.

ecmwf_precip_06_syracuse_41.png

If this does come to pass this would be causing all kinds of problems. Its in fantasy land so lets watch it but first and for most, I'm more concerned with temps even if their +2+3F AN we can still snow. Even in an AN pattern we can snow so I'm not too concerned.................. yet.

 

ecmwf_precip_06_syracuse_41.png

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I will be coming up for my annual vacation to Redfield, NY Dec. 26-Jan. 2 so have been watching models up there closely.  I see much more promise than I did a couple days ago.  Tuesday/Wednesday possibilities and then late next week could be lots of fun.  Long way to go but at least the blowtorch has backed off.

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2" overnight in Clay, same as Fulton. The much dreaded SE ridge and associated torching doesn't look to establish itself for very long, maybe a day or so after Christmas and then back to fun and games it appears to start 2017. Total of 43" of snow IMBY thusfar, which is close to our entire seasonal snowfall last winter.  Can't complain.

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48 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

2" overnight in Clay, same as Fulton. The much dreaded SE ridge and associated torching doesn't look to establish itself for very long, maybe a day or so after Christmas and then back to fun and games it appears to start 2017. Total of 43" of snow IMBY thusfar, which is close to our entire seasonal snowfall last winter.  Can't complain.

Things did seem to break our way.

We escaped the last storm with about 4 inches of thick crusty snowpack here, and now what looked like a really ugly SE ridge and prolonged torch with a cutter is more like a couple of warm-ish days with a mild frontal passage.

 

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2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

That look right there would bring the pain! -NAO -AO +PNA very nice to see! Let's see how long it lasts unless this is what we see for the rest of the Winter. Either way, looking good compared to what we all thought was coming

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Seriously judging on the model runs couple days ago it looked like winter will be gone for couple weeks lol now they did a 180 and showing this..

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Seriously judging on the model runs couple days ago it looked like winter will be gone for couple weeks lol now they did a 180 and showing this..


I personally have never seen this kind of, about face, from the model's so this tells me there is something else going on here.

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I just hope it's believable but every signal was pointing to normal to above for at least 2 weeks but that's been far removed and we start building a glacier throughout the NE except near the coast. SE Ridge will fight with the cold all season and it will not make the MA folk happy that I can guarantee.

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Still think we have a good chance at some light snow accumulation on tues night, the euro has a little "bullseye" about  1/4" LE for fulton on tues night, GGem has looked solid for a couple days now..

 

kbuf

on Tuesday as cold air pours back into the region in the wake of
Monday night`s cold frontal passage. With 850mb temps falling to -8C
to -10C, it will be marginally cold enough for lake effect snows.
Models currently indicate that greater synoptic moisture and more
favorable profiles will be found across Lake Ontario, where a higher
chance of snow will be found from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
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5 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Ton of potential on the gem/euro over the next 10 days including tues night on a 290-300 flow..

Agreed!  Thursday night - Saturday looks significant.  Bullseye will shift around but looks like GGEM has it in southern/central Oswego and Euro Central/Northern Oswego.  Good signs for this far out.

Also agree that Tuesday into Wednesday could give at least advisory snows.  It may be too far south for me up in Redfield but I'm sure that will shift around as well.  What looked like a dismal vacation for me in Redfield weather wise is shaping up to have tons of opportunity at least. 

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