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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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Pattern is certainly looking atrocious for the next few weeks.  Nothing even remotely exciting on the horizon with a doomsday like SE ride becoming firmly entrenched.  The snowpack will be gone by next week so at this point I'd actually like to hasten its departure so I can at least work on some yard projects that have lingered through the fall.  Lets hope the second half of January brings it.

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Alls I have to say is this.  Here in the upstate, it can SNOW in an above normal regime, so I'm really not concerned especially it being 2 weeks out.  We all knew, after this current Arctic shot came through the cold would have to reload so if anyone expected cold straight through to March is not being realistic.  look at the November and the 3 weeks of Dec we just had???

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15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Alls I have to say is this.  Here in the upstate, it can SNOW in an above normal regime, so I'm really not concerned especially it being 2 weeks out.  We all knew, after this current Arctic shot came through the cold would have to reload so if anyone expected cold straight through to March is not being realistic.  look at the November and the 3 weeks of Dec we just had???

I'm just saying that a 970mb low over Lake Superior would mean howling south winds over us.  I know a lot can happen in 10 days  

IMG_0486.GIF 

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I'm just saying that a 970mb low over Lake Superior would mean howling south winds over us.  I know a lot can happen in 10 days  

IMG_0486.GIF 


Oh, no doubt, it's a straight nasty system that would effect everyone from MI eastward. Is this the first run showing these 2 back to back cutters? Yesterday it showed 2 favorable systems in the same time frame, lol. If we can eek by the 25th with some of the white stuff still around I'll be happy. Theres nothing worst than it pouring outside when gifts are being opened, NO?

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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From GoldenSnowball.com - not so bad compared to last year....just some perspective...

GSB Cities This Seasons City 
Snowfall Totals Combined
Combined Snow 
Totals Last Season
Deficit This
Season & Last

Binghamton 53.6 1.1 + 52.5
Syracuse 49.2 0.8 + 48.4
Rochester 40.7 1.2 + 39.5
Buffalo 25.8 0.1 + 25.7
Albany 10.6 Trace + 10.6
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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Pattern is certainly looking atrocious for the next few weeks.  Nothing even remotely exciting on the horizon with a doomsday like SE ride becoming firmly entrenched.  The snowpack will be gone by next week so at this point I'd actually like to hasten its departure so I can at least work on some yard projects that have lingered through the fall.  Lets hope the second half of January brings it.

I hate to admit it but that is a very impressive Bermuda high that builds in after Christmas.

There's no fighting that thing.  Just going to have to wait for it to relax.

 

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I'd call that H5 ridge a Bahama Pig as its pretty far to the South and East of Bermuda.  Its center is in a spot where I can see improvement, its not really out in the Atlantic like they usually are and they cant be budged, so if this is where the HP is progged then I see some room to where we can squeeze something in here if the GFS is depicting the position of that Monstrous H5 HP correctly so we'll see.  It's definitely gonna get warm, no doubt, but we can get lucky.

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21 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Its even building out over the lake as well so thats a good sign. Good luck guys its looking interesting.

It's looking good on radar but the winds are so light it's almost tea kettleing. Heaviest returns are within a mile or two of the lake with nothing really falling just 5 miles inland. 

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5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

It's looking good on radar but the winds are so light it's almost tea kettleing. Heaviest returns are within a mile or two of the lake with nothing really falling just 5 miles inland. 

Yeah well with a 1040 HP overhead the winds tend to do that.  Whoever gets in on the action should have fun whether it tea kettles or moves overhead but at a snails pace.  I'm for the latter but we'll see what happens.

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parameters off the HRRR look good with the only caveat being the cap or eq's which are approaching 6kft which isn't too good but will work. Omega within the deepest layer of moisture is fantastic so big fat parachutes should fall.  Snow growth is to the floor, lol, so growth should be outstanding so lets see what transpires.  I bet you it snows extremely heavily when that hits the city.  You guys will let me know, lol!

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44 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Full on fluff mode here.  Really just a light snow but these flakes are huge.  A good inch in the last half hour just due to the fluff factor.  

HRRR and BTV WRF look good keeping this locked in through the rest of the day.  As long as it can push onshore should be a fun afternoon.  

Coming down good at McKinley pkwy, you guys should do good if this thing stays like this for couple more hours.

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