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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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The current band off Ontario is super impressive, especially with the fact that there isn't really a "connection" to the Upper Lakes.....but, once this band sweeps off the lake it will collapse quite quickly and be short-lived, thus Onondaga Co. will essentially just get a 1/2 hr. squall.....BUT then, Geo. Bay will instigate another band quite quickly, that will, again, start north then drift south late afternoon/evening.....That band may pump out 3-5"/hr. for areas further south (S. Oswego co./N. Onondaga Co. and points east) and be able to sustain itself much better as it moves south....maybe doubling or tripling the snowfall of this morning's band for Onondaga Co.....so for N. Onondaga Co. and SYR proper, look for 2-3" this morning....then an 8 hour break, then 5-10" this late afternoon/evening.....

....Some areas of the Tug will have storm totals (since yesterday) over 3'.....

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
640 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

NYZ004>006-151945-
/O.CON.KBUF.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-161216T0600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
640 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ONE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
  SQUALL WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTY THIS MORNING. A
  SECOND SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COUNTY LATER THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST LATER THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES TODAY...AND 1 TO 2
  INCHES TONIGHT IN PERSISTENT SNOWS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...
  STRONGEST NEAR LAKE ONTARIO PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
  TIMES. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 THROUGH 6 AM. HIGHS AROUND 20
  TODAY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT.

* WIND CHILLS...5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO THURSDAY...DROPPING TO
  10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO
  SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AND
  SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
  TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SOME
  ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS OF 1O TO 20
  BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HYPOTHERMIA
  AND FROSTBITE. STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW TREES AND
  POWERLINES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

 

Never seen one of these issued in Oswego Cty or anywhere for that matter since Ive lived here

 

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Lake Ontario band never made it very far south. Not surprising as it usually hangs up over Oswego cty. Should be nasty up there today.  This will be one of those days where my kid has a snow day and it never snows here, although northern part of district will get hit.

it was never supposed to come South till this morning, no?

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24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This band that's about to come through has connections to both Huron and Superior? 

From a seeding point, yes...but later today, the Geo. Bay connection will also incorporate the vertical circulation structure...super important in getting things really going 4 places south of Southern Oswego County.... in terms of high snowfall rates

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6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

The heavy snow moved in here about 10 minutes ago. The band is moving steadily to the south so we won't be in it for a long period of time. 

Yep, and it's weakening pretty quickly now as it falls off the lake....that's why 2-3" will be the max from Brewerton south.....I think this afternoon, Brewerton to SYR should do quite a bit better, accumulation wise....

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20 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

From a seeding point, yes...but later today, the Geo. Bay connection will also incorporate the vertical circulation structure...super important in getting things really going 4 places south of Southern Oswego County.... in terms of high snowfall rates

understood!

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I'm just not as confident as the meso's are with the second band forming up on the TUG, as I think it will be considerably South of there, IMO from just looking upstream at the upper GL's.  I could be way off here with my thinking, but we'll see.  The winds are more NWerly than first thought.

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8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'm just not as confident as the meso's are with the second band forming up on the TUG, as I think it will be considerably South of there, IMO from just looking upstream at the upper GL's.  I could be way off here with my thinking, but we'll see.  The winds are more NWerly than first thought.

The winds are backing a bit up around Huron....So I think the band is going to form over N/C Oswego Co....then pivot south (as opposed to this morning's band which the WHOLE band is shifting south)...thus the connection to Geo. Bay. will allow the band to take on a more WNW/NW orientation, which is good for us in Onondaga Co....

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