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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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As we conclude our 2nd very major LES event on the season across the Southern Tier and Ski country our attention now turns to a synoptic event that will affect much of our subforum.

Accumulations look to be a general 4-6" on Sunday-Monday time period.

There is also a shot of a brief period of LES for areas south of Buffalo before the snow moves in from the system. I expect a few inches from this across the distant southtowns and maybe even south Buffalo.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121000/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_30.png

CPC has us in the heavy snow hazard for this system.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

There is some disagreement on what happens following this storm. GGEM has this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

The GEFS has a variety of solutions.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f120.gif

KBUF mentions it:

On Wednesday the longwave trough will begin to dig into the Northern
Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough, medium range
model guidance develops a baroclinic wave over the Ohio Valley and
Northeast. The GFS and most of it`s ensemble members along with the
Canadian GEM are more aggressive with this, and would produce a
general light to moderate snowfall across the entire area. The 12Z
ECMWF is much weaker with this feature. The ECMWF has shown a good
deal of inconsistency with this system, as previous runs looked more
similar to the current 12Z GFS. With this in mind, went closer to
GFS based guidance with snow likely for Wednesday.

Following this storm the polar vortex pays a visit in almost all Ensemble packages with very cold air spilling across the great lakes and Northeast

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzP5a1KVQAAsF_H.jpg

Image

Thursday-Sunday we will most likely have another major lake effect snow event. It's anyones guess where the bands line up, but most likely similar areas to those affected the last few days. In the longer range winter looks to maintain its grip across the country, much different than last years raging El Nino.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Latest NAM has a decent lake effect band affecting areas south of Buffalo Sunday morning. Would be really cool to see during the Bills Game against Pitts.

xVOnf3B.gif

This is something I hadn't even considered for Sunday. I had been hoping the synoptic snow would show up earlier but this is a way better and more plausible angle to follow.  I've always dreamt of seeing orchard park get destroyed by a classic 240/250 event during a day game.  Maybe someday. 

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Still pretty big difference between 0z NAM and GFS for sunday/money system. NAM is 6mb stronger and about a 150 miles further n/w with the primary low track with highest totals across the Dacks/North Country vs. roughly from about I-90 and points south on the GFS. The counties invof I-90 are probably the most favored area right now, particularly the hills near and east of I-81 as that region would appear to be most favorable based on temps/qpf.

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

This is something I hadn't even considered for Sunday. I had been hoping the synoptic snow would show up earlier but this is a way better and more plausible angle to follow.  I've always dreamt of seeing orchard park get destroyed by a classic 240/250 event during a day game.  Maybe someday. 

250/255 flow would be best for OP. Here is an pretty big event that hit during the Bills game.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080724120916/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0203/c/stormc.html

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is something I hadn't even considered for Sunday. I had been hoping the synoptic snow would show up earlier but this is a way better and more plausible angle to follow.  I've always dreamt of seeing orchard park get destroyed by a classic 240/250 event during a day game.  Maybe someday. 

 

Seriously, what would they do if 4"/hr rates parked themselves right over Orchard Park mid-game? Put it on hold and finish when it's all clear?

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That 2002 game was awesome. If that band would have moved in an hour sooner it would have been quite a mess. It moved in late 4th quarter and I remember watching it and at points it looked like the picture all went to static fuzz with how hard it was coming down. They did have some troubles getting people out of the lots but again it could have been worse. Here's the only video I can find of the game. If your a bills fan watch the whole thing as it was a great game. If you just like the snow fast forward to the last 30 seconds.




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2 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Maybe I'm optimistic here but i think we got a chance here to pick up at least 2-4" from the LES lifting up north here later on tonight with another 4-6" of the synoptic stuff tomorrow..

Probably only going to be areas close to the shore, I doubt it'll extend past the 90.

It would be nice to pick up on some of next week's event, but that looks to be on the lower probability side of things right now.:fulltilt:

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Really looking forward to see what happens later tonight when that band moves north. BUF WRF variations all show a healthy band camp over the metro for roughly 6 hours before drifting into the northtowns. Even if it's a light rate no way that would only produce an inch or two. Maybe a metro surprise to end the event?

aa96abdc2df8afe9aad0d5170ad1a740.gif
db0232d740124069e0df2eb21a80ff02.gif


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14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

Really looking forward to see what happens later tonight when that band moves north. BUF WRF variations all show a healthy band camp over the metro for roughly 6 hours before drifting into the northtowns. Even if it's a light rate no way that would only produce an inch or two. Maybe a metro surprise to end the event?

 

 

I hope that ends up happening. Enough to cover the grass at the very least, so it doesn't look so gray and depressing here. It looks like we'll definitely get a good accumulation Sunday night as well

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YES!!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1238 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

NYZ010-110145-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0020.161211T0400Z-161211T1400Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1238 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS CLOSE TO LAKE
ERIE FROM SOUTH BUFFALO INTO THE SOUTHTOWNS.

* TIMING...FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
ON AREA ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.



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Picked up 2" in last 2-3 hours IMBY...a narrow streamer riding the SE shore on L Ontario extended through extreme no. Onondaga cty and so. Oswego cty.  Was snowing hard at my house and a few miles south on RT 31 in Clay, just flurries.  That pretty much doubles we have had to date from this event...

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2-3" from the next event as per BGM.  The disappointments are already starting, lol. On top of this, it gets to 40-41F on Monday so whatever fell today and yesterday will be gone, lol.  Its looking like a So.Tier Eastern NY Winter to which they truly deserve!  Not looking forward to the disappointments but then again its the weather and I shouldn't expect anything less than chaos.  Next weeks mid week system isn't looking to promising right now but that can change and the LE that everybody is talking about is a world away wrt details, wind and most of all moisture.  

The ECMWF continues to suggest the Arctic air at the heart of the
trough will rotate eastward into Quebec, barely clipping northern
NY state. Although we will remain cold, the deep Arctic cold is
not likely to directly affect us.

I don't believe this at all. I've seen some departures from normal some 20-30 degrees below normal.  I don't quite get where there getting this from?

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

2-3" from the next event as per BGM.  The disappointments are already starting, lol. On top of this, it gets to 40-41F on Monday so whatever fell today and yesterday will be gone, lol.  Its looking like a So.Tier Eastern NY Winter to which they truly deserve!  Not looking forward to the disappointments but then again its the weather and I shouldn't expect anything less than chaos.  Next weeks mid week system isn't looking to promising right now but that can change and the LE that everybody is talking about is a world away wrt details, wind and most of all moisture.  


The ECMWF continues to suggest the Arctic air at the heart of the
trough will rotate eastward into Quebec, barely clipping northern
NY state. Although we will remain cold, the deep Arctic cold is
not likely to directly affect us.

I don't believe this at all. I've seen some departures from normal some 20-30 degrees below normal.  I don't quite get where there getting this from?

Same place they got 1-2 feet of snow for us the past 2 days? ;)

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