eyewall Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, adk said: I think as some of the heavier bands pivot into BTV it is going to get pretty interesting. I'd say there is about 2" on the ground and has been a stead .5"/hr rate here. Good small flakes. Radar shows yellows just to the south. Hopefully it ramps up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2.2 inches in the Noosk as of now. Definitely looks to be ramping up a bit now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.25” L.E. I was planning to head home early today anyway, but this morning we got the announcement that UVM was closing at noontime today and staying closed all day tomorrow. I think the decision to close was probably a little bit easier since this is spring break week for the undergraduates, but UVM closing is still quite notable. The last time that I can recall UVM closing for a winter event was the 2007 Valentine’s Day Storm, although it’s possible there may have been an ice storm or something since then that prompted a one-day closure. Driving home from Burlington a bit after 11:00 A.M. today, the slow lane on I-89 was still entirely blacktop, although the passing lane was snow-packed. Driving was fine though, especially since traffic was very light at that point. Snowfall was moderate in general along the drive, although lightest from Richmond through Bolton (western slopes) so perhaps there’s a bit of downsloping going on there. At the house we’d picked up 2.0” of snow as of 12:00 P.M., and the stack was quite dense – I was surprised to find that the snow to liquid ratio was only 8 to 1. Of course that means that there’s quite a shot of liquid in that 2 inches of snow – 0.25” of water is pretty impressive. I initially described the snowfall as moderate, but once I was out there getting my cores off the board, I could see that the intensity was more than that – the board refilled with snow very quickly, and I think it’s just the relatively small size of the flakes that is giving the perception of lighter snowfall. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.0 inches New Liquid: 0.25 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.0 Snow Density: 12.5% H2O Temperature: 20.1 F Sky: Snow (2-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 13 minutes ago, eyewall said: 2.2 inches in the Noosk as of now. Definitely looks to be ramping up a bit now though. 7 inches here in Orwell at 1 pm. It's coming your way, eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 So I was just taking a look at the models and couldn’t help but notice that after heading up the coast, the surface low pressure seems to sit and spin in Northern Maine for a bit instead of just pulling away. As we know, that’s typically quite the propitious position for upslope snow in the Northern Greens and areas down the spine. I’m not seeing any big numbers of note in the BTV NWS forecast discussion with respect to the upslope potential, but they certainly mention it (relevant portions of the discussion added below) and some of the models have the snow continuing right into Thursday/Friday. I haven’t looked through to check winds, humidity etc. on the models, but I suspect PF and adk will chime in with their thoughts at some point. We haven’t had one of these really big synoptic storms with upslope in a while, but we know what the Greens can sometimes do with these things. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1101 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Tonight the surface low will continue to track along the New England coast into eastern Maine by Wednesday morning. Overnight snowfall generally ranging from 4-8 inches in more northerly flow shifting NW in wrap around moisture. Wednesday morning commute could also be hazardous. .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 527 AM EDT Tuesday...Will see some localized Champlain Valley convergence and upslope effects begin to enhance snowfall on the western periphery of the system. Snowfall will gradually become confined to the mountains as we head through Wednesday evening/night into Thursday morning in a drying, NW flow regime. An additional 2-5 inches possible on Wednesday. Expect snow showers to continue into Wednesday night, with greatest potential across the higher terrain in unblocked NW flow. Snow- to- liquid ratios of 12:1 to 15:1 expected throughout the event. Winds will also decrease on Wednesday, but could still see gusts around 20-25 MPH. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday...Mid/upper level low slowly lifts northeast with cyclonic upslope flow continuing into Thursday...however moisture slowly dissipate. A few lingering mountains snow showers are likely...especially northern green mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said: 7 inches here in Orwell at 1 pm. It's coming your way, eyewall. Yeah we just had a vis crash and it is now starting to look like a snowstorm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah we just had a vis crash and it is now starting to look like a snowstorm out there. Still really small flakes. Wondering whether the 8-1 ratios that JSpin is finding - and that seem to be out around BTV right now - are going to hang around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, adk said: Still really small flakes. Wondering whether the 8-1 ratios that JSpin is finding - and that seem to be out around BTV right now - are going to hang around. Yeah the snow growth is concerining. Low vis but small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Snow growth has been pretty bad down here unless you under some intense echoes---like 30dbz or higher. Will that change as the storm evolves, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, backedgeapproaching said: Snow growth has been pretty bad down here unless you under some intense echoes---like 30dbz or higher. Will that change as the storm evolves, who knows. I just was under a 35 dbz echo. Still small flakes. Lots and lots of them .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, adk said: I just was under a 35 dbz echo. Still small flakes. Lots and lots of them .... Guess you would have to take a look at what's going in temp wise and DP wise in the DGZ....guessing its not ideal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Guess you would have to take a look at what's going in temp wise and DP wise in the DGZ....guessing its not ideal right now. Yeah we will have to see if BTV backs down amounts at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The State let us go early today. In my 23+years with the State, I think this is the third time that has happened. The first being VDay '07. 5.25" on the deck here at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 26 minutes ago, adk said: Still really small flakes. Wondering whether the 8-1 ratios that JSpin is finding - and that seem to be out around BTV right now - are going to hang around. Well, from a resurfacing perspective – this 8 to 1 stuff is going to be fantastic. I guess let’s get enough of this down to really make that old pack a memory, then gradually transition to some Champlain Powder™ and set up a world-class gradient of accumulation from this storm cycle. We’ve got absolutely zero wind here right now, so in some respects it would be nice to see how dendrites would be stacking with these snowfall rates, but we’ll just watch how Mother Nature’s master plan unfolds for the Northern Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, mreaves said: The State let us go early today. In my 23+years with the State, I think this is the third time that has happened. The first being VDay '07. 5.25" on the deck here at home. Budget cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, J.Spin said: Well, from a resurfacing perspective – this 8 to 1 stuff is going to be fantastic. I guess let’s get enough of this down to really make that old pack a memory, then gradually transition to some Champlain Powder™ and set up a world-class gradient of accumulation from this storm cycle. We’ve got absolutely zero wind here right now, so in some respects it would be nice to see how dendrites would be stacking with these snowfall rates, but we’ll just watch how Mother Nature’s master plan unfolds for the Northern Greens. I'm only looking at it from a perspective of predicted snowfall totals. 6" would refresh alpine surfaces just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, adk said: Budget cuts. Hahah. If that were the case they wouldn't have closed. BCBS, National Life and UVM have closed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The wind is steadily increasing, around 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Visibility is around 300 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The snowfall rate has certainly been picking up now, compliments of that band that has come into the area with 30-35 db returns shown below: The J&E Productions Live Web Cam is running for those monitoring accumulations in this area, and my plan is to leave that stake undisturbed for a while to monitor settled storm depth. In case the 12-inch gauge on the camera board isn’t sufficient, I put the 30-inch gauge behind it and I’ll tilt the web cam up if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Wind now picking up in BTV and the snowfall rate is increasing. Id' say we're north of the .5" /hr rates we saw earlier but lower than 1"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Also, the 12z WRF shows a really good upslope signal for the spine and points just east from 8am tomorrow to 8am Thursday. 1" of water due to upslope flow. Could outperform the synoptic really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, adk said: Wind now picking up in BTV and the snowfall rate is increasing. Id' say we're north of the .5" /hr rates we saw earlier but lower than 1"/hr. I can tell yo here we are getting crushed vis wise. 1/8 or less at times (pics coming later). I haven't measured but I would say at least 2 inches an hour at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: So I was just taking a look at the models and couldn’t help but notice that after heading up the coast, the surface low pressure seems to sit in spin in Northern Maine for a bit instead of just pulling away. As we know, that’s typically quite the propitious position for upslope snow in the Northern Greens and areas down the spine. I’m not seeing any big numbers of note in the BTV NWS forecast discussion with respect to the upslope potential, but they certainly mention it (relevant portions of the discussion added below) and some of the models have the snow continuing right into Thursday/Friday. I haven’t looked through to check winds, humidity etc. on the models, but I suspect PF and adk will chime in with their thoughts at some point. We haven’t had one of these really big synoptic storms with upslope in a while, but we know what the Greens can sometimes do with these things. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1101 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Tonight the surface low will continue to track along the New England coast into eastern Maine by Wednesday morning. Overnight snowfall generally ranging from 4-8 inches in more northerly flow shifting NW in wrap around moisture. Wednesday morning commute could also be hazardous. .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 527 AM EDT Tuesday...Will see some localized Champlain Valley convergence and upslope effects begin to enhance snowfall on the western periphery of the system. Snowfall will gradually become confined to the mountains as we head through Wednesday evening/night into Thursday morning in a drying, NW flow regime. An additional 2-5 inches possible on Wednesday. Expect snow showers to continue into Wednesday night, with greatest potential across the higher terrain in unblocked NW flow. Snow- to- liquid ratios of 12:1 to 15:1 expected throughout the event. Winds will also decrease on Wednesday, but could still see gusts around 20-25 MPH. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday...Mid/upper level low slowly lifts northeast with cyclonic upslope flow continuing into Thursday...however moisture slowly dissipate. A few lingering mountains snow showers are likely...especially northern green mountains. That's what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Well, for those that are worried, there’s not too much to be concerned about with respect to the snowfall rates in that yellow band of strong echoes – from 12:00 P.M. to 2:00 P.M. the snowfall rate seemed to be about an inch an hour at best with the tiny flakes, but I just checked the at 3:00 P.M. and there was 6.1” on the board, so that speaks to a pretty impressive snowfall rate in the 2:00 P.M. to 3:00 P.M time period. It’s still dead calm out there, so conditions are supporting some lofty accumulation with flakes up to nearly an inch in diameter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Hours of (near) blizzard conditions here. 22F heavy snow, blowing snow. Lots of gusts in the 30's. Visibility has been 750 feet or so. So much blowing and drifting that grass is showing in some areas and drifts 2 or 3 feet high in others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Snowgrowth is pretty poor, very small flakes, but god almighty you'll choke if you try to breath outside right now. This is about as low as I've ever seen visibility get. Combined with the wind, it's super impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Well, I’m not sure if PF is at the mountain right now, but that’s a pretty solid bit of 35 db coloring in the Mansfield area on the radar image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Absolutely nuking here. Blizzard conditions and near whiteout at times. Adding up fast now! 6" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 I just measured almost 9" at home! Mountain report from 3pm was 7-8" at from 1,500-3,000ft. Probably doing exactly the same in town. Holy crap...that's almost 4" in the past hour. Very dry fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 You guys are in deform city up there right now. Wonder if it will sit for a while or rotate out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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