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NNE Winter Thread

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
Just now, mreaves said:

My Wunderground app had 21" for me between Tuesday and Wednesday and another 6" this coming Saturday and Sunday.

Yeah the Euro gives us another 6 or so with storm 2. I just can't wait to get this started and move to obs LOL.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ApacheTrout said:

Identical range for me, too.  Do you know if modeled QPF forecasts exist and can be located for the V-Day 20007 and March 6 2011 events?

I recall (probably incorrectly), that the snowfalls exceeded predicted amounts for those storms by 4-6 inches.  Was wondering if a similar setup is occurring with this storm.

I am not sure if there are model run archives to be quite honest, especially going back that far. The hardest thing in VT is microclimate impacts.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

BTV's 4:00 p.m. update.  They seem excited. 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Monday...Well...big day Tuesday/Tue Ngt.
Everything remains on track with a "textbook" Nor`easter
affecting the North Country with widespread heavy
snowfall...generally 12-18" across central/nrn VT and 8-15"
across nrn NY thru 00z/Thu. We`ve left all winter headlines as
is, with Winter Storm Warnings areawide 11Z/Tue thru 00Z/Thu.

Excellent satellite presentation this afternoon with
digging/vigorous upper trough across the lower Ohio Valley and mid-
MS river valley, and separate srn branch trough noted with abundant
cloud-to-ground lightning noted over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Good 12z NWP model low track consensus, showing primary sfc low
weakening along low-level baroclinic zone in the Ohio Valley, and
secondary low developing rapidly near Cape Hatteras, NC during the
overnight hrs. The surface low will deepen to 980mb or so as it
tracks across sern MA Tuesday evening, with a 700mb closed low
developing across swrn New England during rapid deepening phase
Tuesday aftn/eve. Excellent QG forcing and moisture advection with
deep-layer easterly fetch north of 700mb low, and low-level
trajectories from the swrn Atlantic. Strong UVV and saturated
dendrite growth bring 1-2"/hr snowfall rates to the North Country,
especially 18Z/Tue thru 03Z/Wed, during which time traveling will be
particularly hazardous due to potential whiteout conditions and
<0.25sm vsby in heavy snow. Would not be surprised to see 6-10"
snowfall accumulation in spots just during Tuesday aftn alone.
Increasing blowing and drifting snow is likely during Tuesday night
into Wednesday with north winds 15-25mph and some gusts up to 35mph,
especially in the Champlain Valley as snowfall rates become a bit
more modest. Will see some localized Champlain Valley convergence
and upslope effects begin to enhance snowfall on the wrn periphery
of the system as well, with north winds as low tracks into nrn Maine
on Wednesday. Again, with excellent dendrite snow growth (saturation
in deep -12C to -18C) layer, we`ll generally see snow-to-liquid
ratios of 12:1 to 15:1 throughout the event. It could be slightly
higher, but moderate winds will tend to break about dendrites with
blowing and drifting near ground level.

Will see snowfall gradually become confined to the mountains as we
head through Wednesday evening/night into Thursday morning in a
drying, NW flow regime, with wx conditions improving. Temperatures
generally in 20s during the daylight hrs Tue/Wed, and in the mid
teens for Tuesday night.
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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said:

Identical range for me, too.  Do you know if modeled QPF forecasts exist and can be located for the V-Day 20007 and March 6 2011 events?

I recall (probably incorrectly), that the snowfalls exceeded predicted amounts for those storms by 4-6 inches.  Was wondering if a similar setup is occurring with this storm.

 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I am not sure if there are model run archives to be quite honest, especially going back that far. The hardest thing in VT is microclimate impacts.

There's a ton of QPF model data back to Dec 2001 at this site (GFS, NAM, NGM...even Euro and UKMet) - http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/daily/

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

BTV's 4:00 p.m. update.  They seem excited. 


.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Monday...Well...big day Tuesday/Tue Ngt.
Everything remains on track with a "textbook" Nor`easter
affecting the North Country with widespread heavy
snowfall...generally 12-18" across central/nrn VT and 8-15"
across nrn NY thru 00z/Thu. We`ve left all winter headlines as
is, with Winter Storm Warnings areawide 11Z/Tue thru 00Z/Thu.

Excellent satellite presentation this afternoon with
digging/vigorous upper trough across the lower Ohio Valley and mid-
MS river valley, and separate srn branch trough noted with abundant
cloud-to-ground lightning noted over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Good 12z NWP model low track consensus, showing primary sfc low
weakening along low-level baroclinic zone in the Ohio Valley, and
secondary low developing rapidly near Cape Hatteras, NC during the
overnight hrs. The surface low will deepen to 980mb or so as it
tracks across sern MA Tuesday evening, with a 700mb closed low
developing across swrn New England during rapid deepening phase
Tuesday aftn/eve. Excellent QG forcing and moisture advection with
deep-layer easterly fetch north of 700mb low, and low-level
trajectories from the swrn Atlantic. Strong UVV and saturated
dendrite growth bring 1-2"/hr snowfall rates to the North Country,
especially 18Z/Tue thru 03Z/Wed, during which time traveling will be
particularly hazardous due to potential whiteout conditions and
<0.25sm vsby in heavy snow. Would not be surprised to see 6-10"
snowfall accumulation in spots just during Tuesday aftn alone.
Increasing blowing and drifting snow is likely during Tuesday night
into Wednesday with north winds 15-25mph and some gusts up to 35mph,
especially in the Champlain Valley as snowfall rates become a bit
more modest. Will see some localized Champlain Valley convergence
and upslope effects begin to enhance snowfall on the wrn periphery
of the system as well, with north winds as low tracks into nrn Maine
on Wednesday. Again, with excellent dendrite snow growth (saturation
in deep -12C to -18C) layer, we`ll generally see snow-to-liquid
ratios of 12:1 to 15:1 throughout the event. It could be slightly
higher, but moderate winds will tend to break about dendrites with
blowing and drifting near ground level.

Will see snowfall gradually become confined to the mountains as we
head through Wednesday evening/night into Thursday morning in a
drying, NW flow regime, with wx conditions improving. Temperatures
generally in 20s during the daylight hrs Tue/Wed, and in the mid
teens for Tuesday night.

Still thinkng CPV convergence which makes me feel good.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

WOW!  The "Eyewall" curse may finally be broken.    For the past several years it seems like endless storm tracks over the benchmark area that has given SW Maine and SNE the big storms.  This is the track we need a for C/NNE turn.  1-2" qpf and a tight 980mb low.  A daytime storm too!

Enjoy NNE posters! Be safe...

 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 hours ago, ApacheTrout said:

Identical range for me, too.  Do you know if modeled QPF forecasts exist and can be located for the V-Day 20007 and March 6 2011 events?

I recall (probably incorrectly), that the snowfalls exceeded predicted amounts for those storms by 4-6 inches.  Was wondering if a similar setup is occurring with this storm.

I have some saved.  I'll look later.

This is much different than 2011.  

 

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

I’m not sure the last time I’ve seen a Blizzard Warning around here, if ever, but that’s what the BTV NWS has put up for some parts of the forecast area today.  Unfortunately that suggests the potential for substantial winds with this storm, but that’s often the price that has to be paid with these large synoptic storms.  We’ll just have to see what the ultimate effect is on lift operations and snow deposition in the mountains.

 

Winter Storm Warnings are up elsewhere in the area, with 18 to 26 inches of snow mentioned in the warning text.  The numbers have certainly increased from yesterday on the projected accumulations map – the spine of the Greens now shows some of that darker red shading for the 24 to 30 inch accumulation range.  In his broadcast this morning, Roger Hill went with a general 15 to 30 inches of accumulation for the North-Central Vermont area, and our point forecast at the house sums to 17 to 29 inches through tomorrow night, so all these thoughts seem generally in line with each other.

 

The latest BTV NWS maps and advisory text are below; both are pretty notable in terms of what's typically seen on these types of maps:

 

14MAR17A.jpg

 

14MAR17B.jpg

 

WWUS41 KBTV 140747

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Burlington VT

347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

 

NYZ026>028-031-034-035-087-VTZ001-002-005-009-011-141600-

/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.W.0003.170314T1100Z-170316T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KBTV.BZ.W.0001.170314T1100Z-170315T1500Z/

Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-

Western Clinton-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-

Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-Western Franklin-

Western Chittenden-Western Addison-Western Rutland-

Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Dannemora,

Lake Placid, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam,

Gouverneur, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Burlington,

Middlebury, Vergennes, and Rutland

347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT

WEDNESDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Blizzard

Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT

Wednesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

 

* Hazard Types...Heavy snow, blowing and drifting snow, and

  strong gusty winds.

 

* Accumulations...12 to 20 inches of snow.

 

* Locations...The Saint Lawrence Valley and eastern Adirondack

  Mountains of northern New York...and the Champlain Valley.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...Up to 2 inches per hour, mainly this

  afternoon through evening.

 

* Timing...Snow will develop this morning, becoming heavy at times

  late this afternoon through midnight. Blizzard conditions with

  strong gusty winds and whiteout conditions will develop late

  this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours

  tonight...with areas of snow and blowing snow continuing on

  Wednesday.

 

* Impacts...Travel is not recommended due to blizzard conditions this

  afternoon into Wednesday morning. Isolated power outages are

  possible.

 

* Winds...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

 

* Temperatures...Today highs in the lower 20s. Tonight lows 5 to

  15.

 

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are

expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds

and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout

conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If

you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get

stranded, stay with your vehicle.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or

go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this

weather situation.

 

&&

 

$$

 

NYZ029-030-VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019-141600-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0003.170314T1100Z-170316T0000Z/

Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Orleans-Essex-

Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Orange-Windsor-Eastern Franklin-

Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-

Including the cities of Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake,

Newport, Island Pond, Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier,

Bradford, Randolph, Springfield, White River Junction,

Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,

East Wallingford, and Killington

347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING

TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the Winter

Storm Warning for heavy snow, from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT

Wednesday.

 

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow.

 

* Locations...All of Vermont east of the Champlain Valley and the

  western Adirondack Mountains of northern New York.

 

* Accumulations...18 to 26 inches of snow, with higher amounts

  possible across the higher terrain.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...greater than 2 inches per hour, mainly

  this afternoon through evening.

 

* Timing...Snow will develop this morning, becoming heavy at times

  this afternoon into Wednesday. Gusty winds will produce

  considerable blowing and drifting snow this afternoon into early

  Wednesday morning.

 

* Impacts...Hazardous winter driving conditions due to snow

  covered roads, low visibility, and blowing and drifting snow.

  Creating near whiteout conditions at times. Unnecessary travel

  is strongly discouraged this afternoon and evening.

 

* Winds...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

 

* Temperatures...Today highs in the lower 20s. Tonight lows 8 to

  13.

 

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather

conditions are expected or occurring.  Significant amounts of

snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in

an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food,

and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go

to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather

situation.

 

&&

 

$$

 

KGM/BT

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

First flakes here in Augusta at 9:20, visibility now down to 1/2 mile.  WSW forecast for foothills is 14-18" while the P&C for the 3 periods into tomorrow adds up to 14-24.  The GYX estimates at 90/50/10% for Farmington are 17/19/26.  The 85% chance of 18+ is the highest percent for that depth I've seen for my area since that product became available.  Hoping for the high end of the range (of course!), to get a 3rd 20"+ event in one winter.  Closest I've had was 1960-61 in NNJ, with storms of 18, 20, and 24", one in each met winter month.. 

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eekuasepinniW

eekuasepinniW

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The 85% chance of 18+ is the highest percent for that depth I've seen for my area since that product became available.  

I noticed that too... definitely the highest I've seen.  I've attached it in case anyone wants to enjoy it later.

The probs for 12" being at 100% for nearly the whole CWA is pretty impressive as well.

snowProbGE18.png 

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