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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a fronto band there.

Yeah this is very efficient snow, and synoptic level.  

0.1" QPF on the front end fronto that ripples through the flow might be 2-3" from NNY through C/NH and SW/ME.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This beats any upslope ratios right now.  This is pure cold fluff at 13F.  

This is 1sm -SN at an inch per hour.

Yikes. NAM forecast sounding for HIE is like 300 mb deep DGZ. Won't take much lift to dump dendrites.

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yikes. NAM forecast sounding for HIE is like 300 mb deep DGZ. Won't take much lift to dump dendrites.

It's definitely like the prelude fluff to a big storm you see sometimes...except this isn't a big storm.  

Just went to Piecasso for pizza and roads are snowpacked. Definitely a wintry appeal.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It's definitely like the prelude fluff to a big storym you see sometimes...except this isn't a big storm.  

It does show you how deep the cold is in this column though. From the surface to 600 mb is pretty much between -12 and -18C. 

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Over 2" here so far.

48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's a really aesthetically pleasing shot dude.

Thank you over 2 inches here so far. This is outperforming what is expected with the main storm!

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Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

We’re currently being impacted by the upper-level shortwave passing north of our area ahead of the larger midweek system.  It started up earlier this afternoon, but snow accumulation was fairly slow with rather small flakes.  Flake size increased a lot here this evening though, probably up to 15 mm at times, which allowed for more rapid accumulation.  The BTV NWS did decide to bump pops a bit with up to 2 inches of accumulation:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

657 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

As of 612 PM EST Monday...A weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft along with a ribbon of mid level moisture is producing a band of light snow across most of northern NY into central/northern VT this evening. Have bumped pops into the likely/cat range with snow accumulations generally a dusting to 2 inches. Highest amounts across the dacks into the northern Green Mountains.

 

We’re actually up to 1.5” of accumulation as of 9:00 P.M. observations, so it would seem as though the mountains will get their 2” easily.

 

Details from the 9:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 18.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

 

Flake size has diminished since observations time, but there’s still a bunch of moisture out there:

 

06FEB17B.gif

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We are closing in on 2" as well. I guess I wasn't expecting even this much right off the bat. Oh well, with such diminished expectations, it doesn't take much for a positive bust lol. 

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5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

We are closing in on 2" as well. I guess I wasn't expecting even this much right off the bat. Oh well, with such diminished expectations, it doesn't take much for a positive bust lol. 

LOL that is for sure. I think we could sneak in 3" out of this one.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That's a really aesthetically pleasing shot dude.

 

6 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yep, gorgeous; I just made it the desktop on my laptop.  It was tough to bump the collage I made of adk’s (maybe Greg’s?) over-the shoulder Champlain Powder™ images, but it’s just such a cool shot.

Yeah, that's probably going on my desktop at work in the morning. 

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Snowing here too. 1/2" so far. 

My mom's been visiting from Italy because she wanted to see snow. She's an even bigger weenie than I am. Has been sleeping with the shades open so she can watch the snow fall. And it hasn't disappointed - no big storm but measurable snow every day since she arrived a week ago. She's happy. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It's definitely like the prelude fluff to a big storm you see sometimes...except this isn't a big storm.  

Just went to Piecasso for pizza and roads are snowpacked. Definitely a wintry appeal.

 

Ahh, Piecasso on a wintry appeal evening, so many good times.  Modern-classic Stowe.

 

Anyway, speaking of wintry appeal around here, February is really trying hard to do its job.  Snowfall has been decent at our site, with 9.8” on the month so far.  That’s actually just an average pace for snowfall, but what’s really impressed me has been the number of systems.  They’ve been coming through at a furious pace – one for each day of the month thus far:

 

Event 31 - 02/01/2017 - Alberta Clipper: 1.6"

Event 32 - 02/02/2017 - Weak shortwave trough + LES moisture producing squalls: 2.4"

Event 33 - 02/03/2017 - Upper-level disturbance with LES moisture: 1.3"

Event 34 - 02/04/2017 - Weak shortwave with LES moisture: 0.9"

Event 35 - 02/05/2017 - Alberta Clipper: 1.6"

Event 36 - 02/06/2017 - Upper-level shortwave passing north of area: 2.0"

 

If tomorrow’s event produces any accumulation here, that would make it 7 for 7 to start of the month.  We’ve probably pulled off 7 accumulating systems in 7 days before, but I’m not sure if it’s ever synched up right with the start of a month, so that would be a noteworthy first week.  Ski conditions are excellent right now, so from a snow “quality” standpoint, things are great.  The only thing really missing that would really set this period well above average overall, as opposed to somewhere around average, would be the typical all-snow synoptic systems that are usually in the mix.  We’d probably have to sacrifice a couple of the smaller systems, but if the usual assortment of midwinter synoptic systems was thrown in, we’d probably be looking at an above average snowfall period.

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We'll hit 3-4" no problem with this opening round.

BTV on it with 2-4" and locally higher amounts.  

A little low level flow help for the east slope in helping to keep RH High through weak lift in the lowest 1-2kft.

IMG_4815.GIF

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

We'll hit 3-4" no problem with this opening round.

BTV on it with 2-4" and locally higher amounts.  

If we reach 4" it will be the single biggest event this season and that would be pretty close to last year's biggest as well. The band is lined up perfect for me with now. it is cranking yet again.

WUNIDS_map?station=CXX&brand=wui&num=6&d

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just dumping.  This is awesome.

Smugglers Notch to Bolton is getting smoked.

Feb5e_zpsyoca1mlf.gif

Powder Flu tomorrow ;) The fluff factor makes this a real picturesque snow as well with really no wind. 

 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just dumping.  This is awesome.

Smugglers Notch to Bolton is getting smoked.

Feb5e_zpsyoca1mlf.gif

Still snowing here too. Nice night. 

Off topic non-sequiter, I love those Subaru dog tested commercials. 

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48 minutes ago, alex said:

My mom's been visiting from Italy because she wanted to see snow. She's an even bigger weenie than I am. Has been sleeping with the shades open so she can watch the snow fall. And it hasn't disappointed - no big storm but measurable snow every day since she arrived a week ago. She's happy. 

 

That’s pretty cool actually, you’re definitely in upslope country, so you can’t get much better with respect to having continuous light snow falling.  This week was a great example.  I’m not sure if you have any backlighting outside, but if you do, you could set it up right you’d be able to have an effect that you mom would probably like if the flakes are big/slow enough (the way they often are with upslope).  You can see the backlighting effect in the interior shots in the Polar Express trailer below:

 

 

The snowfall they show in that trailer is the classic stuff that we have much of the winter (you’ll hear PF mention the “living in a snow globe” expression).  Here at our house we actually refer to it as “Polar Express snow” as well because it’s so similar to what they depicted in the movie.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We might pull 6" on 0.15" of QPF...40:1 ratios.

I would love nothing more than for BTV to end their drought on some random stationary f-gen max.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

I would love nothing more than for BTV to end their drought on some random stationary f-gen max.

It will be stretch but not entirely impossible.

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