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powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

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It's ripping in town.  Wet stuff but closing in on an inch.  Mountain is getting blasted.

Coop picked up 0.39" liquid this afternoon with a snow depth increase of 3" through 4:30pm.  And it's been nuking ever since.

IMG_4617.GIF

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Grooming reporting 2"+ since 4pm on their cars and puking snow.  So probably 1/2"-3/4" per hour there at 1,500ft but there was a lull.  Bodes well for the upper mountain.

Its really coming down in town.  If this was fluff it would be 1-2"/hr.  Wet paste though sticking to every little branch.

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Grooming reporting 2"+ since 4pm on their cars and puking snow.  So probably 1/2"-3/4" per hour there at 1,500ft but there was a lull.  Bodes well for the upper mountain.

Its really coming down in town.  If this was fluff it would be 1-2"/hr.  Wet paste though sticking to every little branch.

Great to hear PF. Just got to Stowe from Concord, MA. 89 Changed over to very heavy snow at exit 4 in VT. Roads must be really bad by now. See you on the hill.

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I'll post in this thread.. Up at killington this week. Staying at a house that is at 2200'. Ripping right now. We go here about 4 and there has been about 2 inches since we've been here. 

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Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.24” L.E.

 

Prior to the precipitation changing back over to snow, there was 0.08” of rain here, then 0.15” of additional liquid in the snow that has fallen this evening.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.15 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 32.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

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5 minutes ago, alex said:

White field's most likely snowfall amounts are actually higher than the greatest potential. Oh boy. Come on, GYX. 

I wonder if the sample point on the graphics is slightly different than in our grids. Because I see most likely as 3", potential for this much 3.1", and at least this much 1.8". So it should be spitting out a sample of 3" too.

Also these graphics suck in upslope snow, just FYI. It's based of the spread of the model blend. And well, WPC just can't get down the resolution in the mountains that we need.

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~4" at 1,500ft this morning... about 1.5" at home.

Very dense and high confidence of at least 6" above 3,000ft.

Lots of graupel and rimed flakes.  The snowbanks in the ski resort parking are almost wet it seems from the parking lots.  I think we just got a surprising amount of QPF shot into the mountain snowpack.

Models look real good tonight.  Euro drops like a half inch of QPF in the next 36-48 hours over a large area of NVT.

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Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.24” L.E.

 

There were just a couple more tenths of an inch of fluff last night after my 10:00 P.M. observations, and we’re now in a lull between impulses.  It looks like the next shortwave is expected to get into the area around the evening commute:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 651 AM EST Friday...Mid-upper level shortwave is approaching the eastern Great Lakes this morning and is expected to bring more widespread snow showers later in the afternoon/evening and beginning of the overnight period. Expect snow showers to be reinvigorated from NW to SE, moving in the SLV around 20-22Z and reaching the CPV and Nrn VT around 22-02Z and continuing south across central and southern VT after 02Z. Embedded heavier snow showers expected as BUFKIT time series continues to show potential for brief period of snow squalls, which is also support by mesoscale model reflectivity.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 33.3 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 I think we just got a surprising amount of QPF shot into the mountain snowpack.

Models look real good tonight.  Euro drops like a half inch of QPF in the next 36-48 hours over a large area of NVT.

 

We’ve had roughly a quarter inch of liquid at the house thus far, so I’ve got to think the mountain has picked up at least twice that amount.

 

The precipitation looks pretty robust overnight tonight – you can see on the models how the upslope snow pushes southward down the spine much more than it has thus far in this event.

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How are my fellow NNE folks doing this winter compared to average?

I don't have the luxury to be there most of the time for measurement, but for my cabin I believe this winter has been at or about average. I'm guessing somewhere near the 50" mark to date, and since it's about mid winter, that would put me at or maybe slightly above average (which I'm guessing is in the mid 90's).

I notice the Mansfield snow stake is slightly above average.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

~4" at 1,500ft this morning... about 1.5" at home.

Very dense and high confidence of at least 6" above 3,000ft.

Lots of graupel and rimed flakes.  The snowbanks in the ski resort parking are almost wet it seems from the parking lots.  I think we just got a surprising amount of QPF shot into the mountain snowpack.

Models look real good tonight.  Euro drops like a half inch of QPF in the next 36-48 hours over a large area of NVT.

The high res certainty go wild up there and over to Pittsburg. Even if theyre overdone that should be another good event

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1 hour ago, MarkO said:

How are my fellow NNE folks doing this winter compared to average?

I don't have the luxury to be there most of the time for measurement, but for my cabin I believe this winter has been at or about average. I'm guessing somewhere near the 50" mark to date, and since it's about mid winter, that would put me at or maybe slightly above average (which I'm guessing is in the mid 90's).

I notice the Mansfield snow stake is slightly above average.

Snowfall here is about a foot above my average thru today.  On average, we reach 54" on Feb. 12.  Not sure we get anything significant between now and then, though that's clown range.  Dec temp ran 4F BN, Jan is currently +5.3 and will probably gain a degree by the end, making it my 3rd mildest behind 2006 and 2002.  Any winter with a 20" event (that I witness) gains a subjective boost.

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8 hours ago, MarkO said:

How are my fellow NNE folks doing this winter compared to average?

I don't have the luxury to be there most of the time for measurement, but for my cabin I believe this winter has been at or about average. I'm guessing somewhere near the 50" mark to date, and since it's about mid winter, that would put me at or maybe slightly above average (which I'm guessing is in the mid 90's).

I notice the Mansfield snow stake is slightly above average.

 

My data are showing a similar trend to the BTV numbers that eyewall has been reporting.  Mean snowfall at our site for this date is 75.8”, so we’re roughly 10 inches behind that and running at 87.2% of average.

 

Snowpack has been the bigger deficit this season, and I haven’t checked the actual numbers, but I bet it’s in the 50% range if I was to run the snow depth-days.  The snowpack has been continuous since the Nov/Dec period as PF has mentioned, but that should basically be a given – even last season, which has got to be one of the most horrendous of all time, we had continuous snowpack from December through March.  There are probably a couple inches of liquid in the pack at our site at this point, which is fairly robust, but I bet that’s probably below the average liquid in the pack for this date if I had those numbers to check.

 

So like before, if I was to grade the winter at our site based on the snowfall and snowpack with C as average, it’s got to be somewhere in the C-/D+ range; I’ve basically got no choice but to go for a below average grade if both snowfall and snowpack are below the mean.  Other factors that I don’t track such as temperatures/thaws could play a part in the grade.  They don’t really matter to me personally with respect to the tenor of the winter (snowfall essentially trumps everything), but I think the snowfall/snowpack numbers incorporate those temperature factors anyway.

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My niece and her husband in Underhill tapped out on January 16th and have made about 500 gallons already.  So much for the tradition of tapping out on Town Meeting day.

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MarkO,   I think I am about 25 to 30 miles SSW of you.  Bit lower in elevation.   I am at 42" of snow for the season.   27" in December of which 10" fell during that big storm on Dec 30th.   I would guess my snow average is in the mid 80's but have not hit that in the last couple of years.

We have had constant snowcover since late November but it has never gotten much over 12" at any one time.

Usually Newfound Lake is frozen by now.  There have been a few years it never froze over.  This maybe one of those years.  Below is a picture taken yesterday of the lake from over my house.

ice.jpg

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

MarkO,   I think I am about 25 to 30 miles SSW of you.  Bit lower in elevation.   I am at 42" of snow for the season.   27" in December of which 10" fell during that big storm on Dec 30th.   I would guess my snow average is in the mid 80's but have not hit that in the last couple of years.

We have had constant snowcover since late November but it has never gotten much over 12" at any one time.

Usually Newfound Lake is frozen by now.  There have been a few years it never froze over.  This maybe one of those years.  Below is a picture taken yesterday of the lake from over my house.

ice.jpg

Lake George in NY is also wide open, didn't freeze last year either (safe enough to go on)

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Did anything change with the CON ASOS instrumentation or siting a little over a week ago? I've noticed their high temps are more in line to what they used to be (~3F warmer than me on avg compared to 4-5F). They've been a little cooler than their local HADS sites too. There seemed to be a sudden shift around 1/17 or 1/18, that's why I ask.

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A solid F down here.  December snow was okay, but temps were still above average (+3.2 for BTV) and there was the occasional rain event.  January (+11.5 F at BTV and only 3.2 inches of snow here) has been a disaster, no other way to look at it.

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3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

My data are showing a similar trend to the BTV numbers that eyewall has been reporting.  Mean snowfall at our site for this date according is 75.8”, so we’re roughly 10 inches behind that and running at 87.2% of average.

 

Snowpack has been the bigger deficit this season, and I haven’t checked the actual numbers, but I bet it’s in the 50% range if I was to run the snow depth-days.  The snowpack has been continuous since the Nov/Dec period as PF has mentioned, but that should basically be a given – even last season, which has got to be one of the most horrendous of all time, we had continuous snowpack from December through March.  There are probably a couple inches of liquid in the pack at our site at this point, which is fairly robust, but I bet that’s probably below the average liquid in the pack for this date if I had those numbers to check.

 

So like before, if I was to grade the winter at our site based on the snowfall and snowpack with C as average, it’s got to be somewhere in the C-/D+ range; I’ve basically got no choice but to go for a below average grade if both snowfall and snowpack are below the mean.  Other factors that I don’t track such as temperatures/thaws could play a part in the grade.  They don’t really matter to me personally with respect to the tenor of the winter (snowfall essentially trumps everything), but I think the snowfall/snowpack numbers incorporate those temperature factors anyway.

Not so much here.  Thanks to the LE-rich dump late last month, my SDDs are at about 160% of average (should get over 800 by 1/31, avg season about 500 by that date), already well past the total for 05-06 (my lowest) and after tomorrow will have moved ahead of 09-10 and last year, 2nd and 3rd lowest.  07-08 remains 2 laps ahead of any other winter, but I'll probably edge ahead of 08-09 for 2nd place by the end of the month.  (That season climbed to 49" following the 24.5" of 2/22-23, so I doubt this year will hold its current rank.)

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Wow what a day.  Last night's storm was sweet with that QPF heavy snow.

3,000ft turned out to be 6" since cleaned yesterday afternoon for a total of 8" in 24 hours.

Some phenomenal skiing out there today.  Winter stoke was high in Stowe today.

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59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, if only everyone else parties at 3k. It's like a funeral in here and then PF comes in with nudity at 3k. 

Hehe that's funny. But true. 

Feels wintry here, light but constant snow. Gyx went from 1-2 to 3-5" tonight, hopefully that pans out 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, if only everyone else parties at 3k. It's like a funeral in here and then PF comes in with nudity at 3k. 

I live in BTV. I hate when it snows here. 

I go an party at 3K then come home to dry roads, sun, and easy living. 

 

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9 minutes ago, adk said:

I live in BTV. I hate when it snows here. 

I go an party at 3K then come home to dry roads, sun, and easy living. 

 

That would infuriate me...watching the snow rapidly disappear on my ride home.

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21 minutes ago, adk said:

I live in BTV. I hate when it snows here. 

I go an party at 3K then come home to dry roads, sun, and easy living. 

 

That's like saying I live in Orlando, but hate the heat in the summer. :lol: 

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