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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There's been a streamer down the Winooski Valley since I've been up around 4am. 

Someone near J.Spin or even the western slopes just north or south of 89 might have gotten 1-2" or so I would think.

Quarter inch at the base of the mountain this morning.  Nothing in town but a trace of some flakes on the car windshield.

DEEEEEEEEP!!!!

I'm actually pretty excited to see if the GFS mid-range forecast verifies. Been showing an incredible ridge building in towards the end of next week and over the weekend. Temps would verify in to the 60s at BTV under full sun.  Be something to behold for late January.

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23 minutes ago, adk said:

DEEEEEEEEP!!!!

I'm actually pretty excited to see if the GFS mid-range forecast verifies. Been showing an incredible ridge building in towards the end of next week and over the weekend. Temps would verify in to the 60s at BTV under full sun.  Be something to behold for late January.

I saw on the 6z it looks wicked inverted.  Like +6 to +8 at H85 and 31F at MVL lol.  Highest it gets is 38F despite torched 4000ft.

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

1-2" new at the mountain and still coming down steadily.

lol

1.75" of new snow so far.

Drifts of 14-16".

I can't post this anywhere officially because this is not the experience 99% of people here right now are having right now, ha.

Ahh the Nosedive drifts.

2L8A3213compressed1.jpg

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41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol

1.75" of new snow so far.

Drifts of 14-16".

I can't post this anywhere officially because this is not the experience 99% of people here right now are having right now, ha.

Ahh the Nosedive drifts.

2L8A3213compressed1.jpg

Hahah we managed a couple of tenths here! 

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2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:


Pretty sad when 0.25" is overperformer. emoji6.png

Well, that was a little bit of an exaggeration but it has been a bit of an unexpected wintry morning, which I always see as a bonus, regardless of the type of winter we are having.

Anyway, back to current obs. Just when it looks like it's all done, it starts snowing again. No real accumulation but a decidedly wintry appeal in the air. The (in) Accurite thermometer says 20f but it's been stuck on that since Friday night sometime. 

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Well, that was a little bit of an exaggeration but it has been a bit of an unexpected wintry morning, which I always see as a bonus, regardless of the type of winter we are having.

Anyway, back to current obs. Just when it looks like it's all done, it starts snowing again. No real accumulation but a decidedly wintry appeal in the air. The (in) Accurite thermometer says 20f but it's been stuck on that since Friday night sometime. 



Definitely good mood flakes today :)

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

There's been a streamer down the Winooski Valley since I've been up around 4am. 

Someone near J.Spin or even the western slopes just north or south of 89 might have gotten 1-2" or so I would think.

 

Good call, we’d picked up 1.2” of snow at observations time this morning, and then a bit more subsequent to that.  I hadn’t gotten up early since I wasn’t really anticipating anything, and my wife told me that it was snowing.  It was really coming down at that point with some big, fat flakes.  The streamers on the radar were cool to see.  I’ll put together my observations in a bit.

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Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

The BTV NWS says this snow was due to an upper-level disturbance, and the accumulation was incredibly fluffy here with big flakes and no wind.  The liquid in the initial accumulation was somewhere in the 0.01” to 0.02” range, but rounded down to 0.01” so the density calculation came in at very lofty 120 to 1.  With liquid like that it’s not going to bolster the pack, but it has certainly freshened everything up.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 120.0

Snow Density: 0.8% H2O

Temperature: 24.3 F

Sky: Snow (5-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

 

Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 28.0 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

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4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

The BTV NWS says this snow was due to an upper-level disturbance, and the accumulation was incredibly fluffy here with big flakes and no wind.  The liquid in the initial accumulation was somewhere in the 0.01” to 0.02” range, but rounded down to 0.01” so the density calculation came in at very lofty 120 to 1.  With liquid like that it’s not going to bolster the pack, but it has certainly freshened everything up.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 120.0

Snow Density: 0.8% H2O

Temperature: 24.3 F

Sky: Snow (5-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

 

Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 28.0 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

It was as fluffy as it gets for sure and then it sublimated faster than you can say snow drought here. It was nice to see the dendrites fly though :) I wasn't expecting that this morning.

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It turned into quite the nice mid-winter day.

Just got home and taking the dog for a walk in the woods around my place and by the river...sunny mid-winter appeal.  Not deep winter but the solid 4-6" you can walk on definitely makes it seem like winter.

I do understand the plight of the CPV...I wouldn't be stoked to be walking through stick season in the woods.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It turned into quite the nice mid-winter day.

Just got home and taking the dog for a walk in the woods around my place and by the river...sunny mid-winter appeal.  Not deep winter but the solid 4-6" you can walk on definitely makes it seem like winter.

I do understand the plight of the CPV...I wouldn't be stoked to be walking through stick season in the woods.

IMG_4468.JPG

IMG_4471.JPG

Very nice and yes what we had sublimated as we continue stick season here. The departure is growing quick to -11" as of the latest climo report. 

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I’ve been seeing a lot of potential for a mix of frozen precipitation during the midweek period around here on the models, so I checked on the latest thoughts from the BTV NWS:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

301 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Surface low pressure lifts northward through the Great Lakes region Tuesday and precipitation will spread across our forecast area from Southwest to Northeast during the late afternoon and evening. Strong vorticity advection and deep moisture, therefore expect precipitation to be widespread. Early Wednesday morning a secondary low will form off the New England coast and bulk of the energy shifts to this low center and wraps colder air back into the system. Have continued with previous forecaster`s thinking that will see more of a sleet and snow mix rather than freezing rain...only exception being the Saint Lawrence valley where some low level Northeasterly flow will get trapped. From Tuesday evening through the overnight feel that we`ll see a mix of sleet and snow with some rain at the onset Tuesday afternoon and evening. Best chance for sleet and snow will be across Eastern Vermont and the Eastern Dacks. We`ll probably see more rain in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys, perhaps freezing rain in the Saint Lawrence valley as I previously mentioned. Warm air advection continues Wednesday with original low lifting north of the region and precipitation should change to all rain during this timeframe. As secondary low strengthens later in the day Wednesday and overnight colder air aloft will wrap into the system and precipitation should change over to snow.

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4 hours ago, eyewall said:

Very nice and yes what we had sublimated as we continue stick season here. The departure is growing quick to -11" as of the latest climo report. 

I attempted the same thing today and should have stuck to the straight woods rather than the groomed bike path. It was clear, glare ice with a quarter inch of fluff on top. I ducked into the woods where I promptly slipped and fell on my ass. We then skated home after a half mile or so. 

Edit:  Ugh, meant to quote PF's dog walking quote. 

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It was interesting to watch the WMUR Ch 9 Manchester NH news and weather this evening.  Hayley LaPoint who usually does a good job in my opinion really downplayed the midweek storm.  She said no appreciable snow for NH.  A bit of a mixed mess.  Really emphasized the warm air the system would bring in.   I would have been more bullish....

Did anyone else see her?

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I attempted the same thing today and should have stuck to the straight woods rather than the groomed bike path. It was clear, glare ice with a quarter inch of fluff on top. I ducked into the woods where I promptly slipped and fell on my ass. We then skated home after a half mile or so. 

Edit:  Ugh, meant to quote PF's dog walking quote. 

Yeah the Rec Path here is deadly right now...just straight pond ice that's a few inches thick.  Its wild.  You need to walk on the actual snowpack (which is still slick but lets you get traction). 

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Yeah the Rec Path here is deadly right now...just straight pond ice that's a few inches thick.  Its wild.  You need to walk on the actual snowpack (which is still slick but lets you get traction). 



Skate the rec path :)

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I had some time this morning to follow the “Total SWE Monday” routine suggested by CoCoRaHS, and some of the incentive came from the fact that I suspected it would be a fairly quick process with the snowpack not being overly deep.  The snowpack depth is 2.5” in the region of the stake where I measure snow depth, and it was immediately obvious that the snow was quite dense based on how much additional hot water it took to melt the core down.  There was 0.74” of liquid in the snow, which represents a ratio of 3.37 to 1, or a water content of 29.6%.  So that’s a fairly dense snowpack, but it’s nothing compared to what’s sitting on our driveway or the various other surfaces that folks have been talking about here in the thread.

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50 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

the max temps for this week have been shaved by 5-10 degrees.  This is a nice trend.

Yea, nice to see. Im at least peaking out the shades as opposed to having them nailed shut.

Be nice to see you guys in the CPV get a nice event or two.  I wouldn't say no to one down here either :)

Im not sure about this next event, feel pretty good that east slopes in SVT could get a decent hit, not sure about the west side, just so easy for any type of warm nose to get in here.

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I just got a text that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory for the potential effects of Winter Storm Jupiter coming into the area tomorrow.  The latest advisory text and BTV NWS maps are below.  The advisory is calling for a general 3-6” type of event in our area, which seems to be in line with our point forecast and the projected accumulations map.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

642 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017

 

NYZ028-030-031-034-035-VTZ006>009-011-017-171100-

/O.EXA.KBTV.WW.Y.0001.170117T2100Z-170118T1800Z/

EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-

EASTERN ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-

WESTERN RUTLAND-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PLATTSBURGH, SARANAC LAKE, TUPPER LAKE,

DANNEMORA, LAKE PLACID, PORT HENRY, TICONDEROGA, JOHNSON, STOWE,

ST. JOHNSBURY, MONTPELIER, MIDDLEBURY, VERGENNES, RUTLAND,

AND UNDERHILL

642 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM

EST WEDNESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4

PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

 

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CLINTON AND ESSEX

  COUNTIES IN NEW YORK, MUCH OF CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND

  EASTERN VERMONT.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF HEAVY WET

  SNOW...ALONG WITH A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION OF SLEET.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY TUESDAY

  EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

 

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

  AROUND SUNSET. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY

  NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

  WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES.

 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT

  IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

16JAN17A.jpg

 

16JAN17B.jpg

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