Lava Rock Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Awesome John, I was trying to pic my way to the Jay/Farmington area, But we ran into a washout where they had closed the trail on our way to HebronSame with us. With had lunch and was taking one of the same trails back and a tree had fallen right across the trail which wasn't there couple hours earlier. I almost thought the guy that lived trailside cut it down intentionally, but my bud said it had fallen. Weird. There was no wind. We took another trail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Same with us. With had lunch and was taking one of the same trails back and a tree had fallen right across the trail which wasn't there couple hours earlier. I almost thought the guy that lived trailside cut it down intentionally, but my bud said it had fallen. Weird. There was no wind. We took another trail. I carry a saw on my sled in case of those situations, There were a few other water bars we had to cross, In hindsight, We should have turned around went back across the Androscoggin River and took ITS 87 to Jay, But didn't know which sections were going to be groomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nice Ginxy... more snow than I've got in my yard but less water, lol. I saw in one of the threads you posted your NOHRSC graphs for your CoCoRAHS station and forgot in my original post that you can see some of the stuff from my plots on that page as well. High Road: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?station=HRDV1®ion=us Barnes Camp: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?station=BRNV1®ion=us nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 So this is the weenie in me but I'm getting fascinated with the difference in lower elevation (below 2,000ft) snowdepths from the west and east side of the Spine. I saw this photo from Smugglers Notch the other day and the first thing that stood out to me was...where's the snow? I figured there would be nice snowbanks and stuff. Its possible they truck it out but given the 1,100ft COOP station there has a depth of 5", it actually looks like the base of Smuggs has equal or less snow than we have even in Stowe Village. For comparison I shot a photo out the window of driving around the base area on this side of the Notch where there's 17" at the stake (it keeps bouncing around between 15-20" depending on the settling or new snow). Lends more to what ono and Eyewall were talking about with very low snow on the west side approaches to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I thought Mad River wasn't doing well, but they have 96" on the season so far. How does this compare to the avg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: I noticed that too... did they just dig it out or actually raise it up? It should definitely help avoid the snow that kept crawling up the sides of the hole and was getting measured by the stake in the back. I still think its going to be hard to sustain accurate snowfall info up there but the set-up right now looks 100 times better than it had all of December and November. As long as they keep cleaning it out it should be much closer to reality. They did both. Curious to see if the snowcam summit totals come back to the pack now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 hours ago, dryslot said: Awesome John, I was trying to pic my way to the Jay/Farmington area, But we ran into a washout where they had closed the trail on our way to Hebron Too bad. If you head east from Farmington, one of the New Sharon club trails comes within 500' of our place - runs for 1,500' thru our woodlot just east of some sizable farm fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: So this is the weenie in me but I'm getting fascinated with the difference in lower elevation (below 2,000ft) snowdepths from the west and east side of the Spine. I saw this photo from Smugglers Notch the other day and the first thing that stood out to me was...where's the snow? I figured there would be nice snowbanks and stuff. Its possible they truck it out but given the 1,100ft COOP station there has a depth of 5", it actually looks like the base of Smuggs has equal or less snow than we have even in Stowe Village. For comparison I shot a photo out the window of driving around the base area on this side of the Notch where there's 17" at the stake (it keeps bouncing around between 15-20" depending on the settling or new snow). Lends more to what ono and Eyewall were talking about with very low snow on the west side approaches to the mountains. Yeah the west side is seriously lacking without question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Looks like we may see gusts to 50 mph tomorrow evening. That will be interesting :). Anyway ice climbers in the notch should be pleased with this week's conditions: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Hitman said: They did both. Curious to see if the snowcam summit totals come back to the pack now. Nice...raising it is the best way to not get whackball readings. Looks pretty good now with space around it for snow to accumulate without being forced into the same hole. They'll have to stay on top of digging it out or even raise it another foot or so and it would probably be fairly accurate with the snow that's landing there. I don't know enough about the layout of the mountain but from what I understand the arrow is where the cam is? I have this theory that it gets snowier on south through west wind directions and if its on the north side of that treeline that would make sense why. Like the most obscene reports seemed to be from the clippers that have a broad SW flow ahead of them...like I have a screen shot of that clipper that brought a 3-14" total over two days. And there was that southerly wind that loaded the stake with 4" prior to the rain moving in and they were the only place in VT to report any snow. Anyway, I do think their set-up looks a lot better right now...we'll see if it normalizes or if they continue to get those ridiculous ranges of like 1-8". The two times they over-ruled the stake last week you could see the range with elevation was much closer like 1-2" difference from bottom to top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 14 hours ago, powderfreak said: So this is the weenie in me but I'm getting fascinated with the difference in lower elevation (below 2,000ft) snowdepths from the west and east side of the Spine. I saw this photo from Smugglers Notch the other day and the first thing that stood out to me was...where's the snow? I figured there would be nice snowbanks and stuff. Its possible they truck it out but given the 1,100ft COOP station there has a depth of 5", it actually looks like the base of Smuggs has equal or less snow than we have even in Stowe Village. For comparison I shot a photo out the window of driving around the base area on this side of the Notch where there's 17" at the stake (it keeps bouncing around between 15-20" depending on the settling or new snow). Lends more to what ono and Eyewall were talking about with very low snow on the west side approaches to the mountains. Smuggs is "north side" imo. Trust west side stuff has even less snow than that. Once you cross the divide into the CPV the snow disappears. There isn't a flake in BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Looks like we have a high wind warning here in the CPV now for gusts up to 60 tonight. This should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Another cold morning, -6.9°F was the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Down around -16 at my place, about 10° colder than yesterday, with calm air all night. Looking forward to more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 I'm cross-posting this here since it's definitely a site that could be useful to NNE folks, and it might get quickly buried in the main thread. Thanks to Ginx for pointing out more cool potential for use of our CoCoRaHS data. 22 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: NOHRSC does it for Cocorahs stations... That is just way too cool Ginxy; I had no idea those analyses were run even down to the level of CoCoRaHS stations. It’s awesome to know that one’s diligent measurements are getting so much use, or at least hold so much potential for use. You know how you’re always telling people to join CoCoRaHS, well there you go peeps, join CoCoRaHS and you can get your data archived, analyzed, and even used in modeling for your site. I didn’t try it, but are there methods to run the analyses for any latitude/longitude for people that don’t have a station? I’m just guessing the system would have to interpolate it using actual station data, so the result would only be as good as the station density/proximity and not really get at the microclimate of the specific spot. Or maybe they incorporate satellite data? Here’s the page I went to for anyone that is interested – you can just enter your CoCoRaHS station number and you’ll get the plots: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html I ran the analysis on my station starting December 1, and put the SWE, Snow Depth, and Snow Melt plot below. You can see the three snow melt spikes we’ve had in red, which is very informative. You can also see how the analyses incorporate that actual snowpack cores that I’ve done so far this season (two blue circles), as well as the daily snow depth measurements (light blue squares). Man, that actually makes me want to do more frequent snowpack cores to help bolster the data, but it just hasn’t seemed all that necessary with the fairly meager snowpack we’ve had this season. The modeling through the 13th does suggest an increase in SWE & Snow Depth with a concomitant decrease in snow density at our site, so we’ll see how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, J.Spin said: I'm cross-posting this here since it's definitely a site that could be useful to NNE folks, and it might get quickly buried in the main thread. Thanks to Ginx for pointing out more cool potential for use of our CoCoRaHS data. 22 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: NOHRSC does it for Cocorahs stations... That is just way too cool Ginxy; I had no idea those analyses were run even down to the level of CoCoRaHS stations. It’s awesome to know that one’s diligent measurements are getting so much use, or at least hold so much potential for use. You know how you’re always telling people to join CoCoRaHS, well there you go peeps, join CoCoRaHS and you can get your data archived, analyzed, and even used in modeling for your site. I didn’t try it, but are there methods to run the analyses for any latitude/longitude for people that don’t have a station? I’m just guessing the system would have to interpolate it using actual station data, so the result would only be as good as the station density/proximity and not really get at the microclimate of the specific spot. Or maybe they incorporate satellite data? Here’s the page I went to for anyone that is interested – you can just enter your CoCoRaHS station number and you’ll get the plots: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html I ran the analysis on my station starting December 1, and put the SWE, Snow Depth, and Snow Melt plot below. You can see the three snow melt spikes we’ve had in red, which is very informative. You can also see how the analyses incorporate that actual snowpack cores that I’ve done so far this season (two blue circles), as well as the daily snow depth measurements (light blue squares). Man, that actually makes me want to do more frequent snowpack cores to help bolster the data, but it just hasn’t seemed all that necessary with the fairly meager snowpack we’ve had this season. The modeling through the 13th does suggest an increase in SWE & Snow Depth with a concomitant decrease in snow density at our site, so we’ll see how that goes. Very interesting data, now bookmarked. Be sure to include the two dashes (ME-FR-4) in your cocorahs ID or it doesn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Does NNE net gain this week? Seems like a huge temp gradient sets up for this week and next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, MarkO said: Does NNE net gain this week? Seems like a huge temp gradient sets up for this week and next. Depends on what you mean by NNE....in VT i find that highly unlikely to downright impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, MarkO said: Does NNE net gain this week? Seems like a huge temp gradient sets up for this week and next. how do you gain without snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, adk said: Depends on what you mean by NNE....in VT i find that highly unlikely to downright impossible. Be interesting to see what the mountain snowpack does...it's fukkin solid. Will take a lot of energy to melt anything significant. Pack temperature is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 For what its worth....the 12Z Euro has total snowfall of 3-6" for all of C/NNE through day 10. Small area of 6" plus on the spine of the Greens and an area of 10-18" for the Whites. A good chunk of the White total falls over the next 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Newest 18z RGEM looks nice overnight for the mountains. Drops 3-5" for the northern half of the Greens. Keeps 850mb temps at -3C or lower and warms 925mb up to 0C by daybeak. But definitely looks like a nice little mountain snowfall with up to a half inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Newest 18z RGEM looks nice overnight for the mountains. Drops 3-5" for the northern half of the Greens. Keeps 850mb temps at -3C or lower and warms 925mb up to 0C by daybeak. But definitely looks like a nice little mountain snowfall with up to a half inch of QPF. changes to rain pretty quickly though? Then pretty warm, mash them potatoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: changes to rain pretty quickly though? Then pretty warm, mash them potatoes I don't think it changes to rain on the mountain unless I'm missing something or its warmer above H85 (both 850 and 925 stay at or below freezing throughout the precipitation event)...based on the RGEM run. Other models may be different obviously. Looks like it switches to an elevation snow event around 3am but as far as I can see its all snow above 1,500-2,000ft unless there's warmth aloft. Even at 12z tomorrow its -5C at H85, though 0C at 925mb. 925mb warmth is much more pronounced in NH and ME. Precipitation ends between 9z and 12z. Highs tomorrow are mid-30s at 1,500ft base area...so yeah will get soft. And when precipitation ends its warmed up to -5C at H85. And here's 12z 925mb temps after precip has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 It'll be interesting... its currently 12F at the summit. I think the higher elevations could stay all snow this far NW. And we've got an ESE wind at the base area at 20F which usually helps in some light orographic ascent cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It'll be interesting... its currently 12F at the summit. I think the higher elevations could stay all snow this far NW. And we've got an ESE wind at the base area at 20F which usually helps in some light orographic ascent cooling. Yea it will probably stay all snow up top. I saw this and didn't think about 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea it will probably stay all snow up top. I saw this and didn't think about 3k Yeah I'm expecting 1" maybe 2" in town at the absolute max...followed by a 34-35F rain. If you look at the HRRR though its funny how its resolution is actually picking up nicely on the elevation snow: Its got little pin-prick amounts of 6" at Mansfield and then again at Sugarbush area to the south...then also the few 2,500ft+ spots in NEK. Its actually pretty incredible how the resolution is picking that stuff up. Presidentials get hammered above 3,000ft and its got like 16" at Mt Marcy in the Adirondacks. From what I can see the 6"+ line is somewhere near that 2,000-2,500ft elevation layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 PF TK is in your hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: PF TK is in your hood Yeah been texting with him. Might take a run with him in the morning. He's leaving sometime tomorrow. Great guy to get a beer with and make some turns with. Ran into Windex Wier Lundsted in the glades about a week or two ago, too. Those guys are fun weather weenies to be around. We' draw maps in the frost on the gondola cabins like all good weens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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