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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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Sky has been full of snow all day, though none makes it to the ground in this dry and turbulent air.  Drove to Augusta today and the two bank temps were 4 and 5 at 11:30, 5 and 6 at 3 PM.  Doubt my temp has gone above 2 or 3, and winds still gusting 30+.  My 1/3" from last evening's flurry is about gone.  Only 0.01" LE, so not much to sublimate.

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12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV felt ok enough to issue an early winter storm watch.

That seems odd. 

I also don't agree that "Overall, this has the potential to be most snow that the majority of the North Country has seen during a single event this season." That's in the NWS discussion and with one model out to sea and the GFS clearly moving eastward ...I dunno...seems like somebody had a few at the UVM game and went to work excited. 

 

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The long term Tues-Fri still sounds optimistic from them as of 2:38 pm today:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

As for this cold, brutally cold days have an upside even for skiers. It's a great day to relax by the fire with a good book and drink of choice. Nothin' wrong with that! Especially if it's Saturday :) 

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2 hours ago, ThatGirlWhoSkis said:

The long term Tues-Fri still sounds optimistic from them as of 2:38 pm today:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

As for this cold, brutally cold days have an upside even for skiers. It's a great day to relax by the fire with a good book and drink of choice. Nothin' wrong with that! Especially if it's Saturday :) 

Whoops, never mind. I mean, relaxing by the fire w/ a book and a drink are still awesome but the outlook for Tues-Fri not so much.

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3 hours ago, adk said:

That seems odd. 

I also don't agree that "Overall, this has the potential to be most snow that the majority of the North Country has seen during a single event this season." That's in the NWS discussion and with one model out to sea and the GFS clearly moving eastward ...I dunno...seems like somebody had a few at the UVM game and went to work excited. 

 

As much as I love looking at the big model runs, never bought into it to the scale that its going to be a major snow event.  The upper level low and mesoscale snow on NNW flow and Champlain Valley convergence could actually put BTV and western slopes into a pretty good spot...but for the most of the BTV CWA I think its a scraper type event with maybe Advisory snows over a 24 hour period.  Some upslope spots could get warning criteria, likely Underhill side.

I still do expect eastern ticks as this approaches.  Maybe not in the next 24 hours...but in the final 24 hours, these things always seem to drift east and/or weaker with time.

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Musings..

High today of 9F.  Very impressive for March 11.   Low was -3.6F which occurred about an hour after sunrise.

Got about an 1" of snow from 2 squalls.  One late yesterday afternoon and one overnight

Saw the east trend on the models today.  When was the last track of a major winter storm over say Boston to give us northern people a bullseye.  Can't remember.  We are long overdue.

 

 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

As much as I love looking at the big model runs, never bought into it to the scale that its going to be a major snow event.  The upper level low and mesoscale snow on NNW flow and Champlain Valley convergence could actually put BTV and western slopes into a pretty good spot...but for the most of the BTV CWA I think its a scraper type event with maybe Advisory snows over a 24 hour period.  Some upslope spots could get warning criteria, likely Underhill side.

I still do expect eastern ticks as this approaches.  Maybe not in the next 24 hours...but in the final 24 hours, these things always seem to drift east and/or weaker with time.

Not a good day in weather land.  I have to admit, I'm pretty close to meltdown.   Yesterday, I'm putting the wheels in motion to drive up to Warren Wednesday night.  Went to bed last night with dreamy visions of snow at home up to the north country, and big ski days.  Tonight, not so much.  Tomorrow is another day.  

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Musings..

High today of 9F.  Very impressive for March 11.   Low was -3.6F which occurred about an hour after sunrise.

Got about an 1" of snow from 2 squalls.  One late yesterday afternoon and one overnight

Saw the east trend on the models today.  When was the last track of a major winter storm over say Boston to give us northern people a bullseye.  Can't remember.  We are long overdue.

 

 

It's been years.  

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This is just a frustrating hobby.   Science is such that, we know a total eclipse of the sun will cross the US on August 21rst and can tell eclipse start time to a second at a given location.  Yet a potential storm 2 days away is impossible to forecast.  3", 10", 14"?  every models vastly different.  Of course the atmosphere is fluid.  Best to just know Tuesday will be a snowy day.  Close the shades and open them up tomorrow.  With daylight saving time models come in an hour later too....

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

This is just a frustrating hobby.   Science is such that, we know a total eclipse of the sun will cross the US on August 21rst and can tell eclipse start time to a second at a given location.  Yet a potential storm 2 days away is impossible to forecast.  3", 10", 14"?  every models vastly different.  Of course the atmosphere is fluid.  Best to just know Tuesday will be a snowy day.  Close the shades and open them up tomorrow.  With daylight saving time models come in an hour later too....

Its only hard given the degree of accuracy people expect within the lead time they expect. Frankly I just think anything greater than 24hours notice is worthless. Though not everybody shares my opinion.

12z GFS says "what you talking about willis" to the BTV WINTER DEATH STORM OF THE YEAR warning.  

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36 minutes ago, adk said:

Its only hard given the degree of accuracy people expect within the lead time they expect. Frankly I just think anything greater than 24hours notice is worthless. Though not everybody shares my opinion.

12z GFS says "what you talking about willis" to the BTV WINTER DEATH STORM OF THE YEAR warning.  

Well the last two Euro runs have a massive region wide double digit event but yeah the GFS is saying enjoy your fringe job. It does seem to be the easterly outlier.

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Pretty interesting how on the hillside where our house is, much of the snow is gone save for some thin cover and deeper patches. Go down the road a mile or two and lose 300' elevation and it's way different. Pack is easily 12" and most people's lawns are still covered. All those foggy nights and poor CAD took a toll higher up. It's the one thing I don't like about our elevation.

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Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.03” L.E.

 

I didn’t see any specific impetus noted for yesterday’s snow in the BTV NWS forecast discussion, so I’m considering it part of the arctic frontal passage.  The weather has generally cleared out, so the totals above may be it for this event

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 7.2 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

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Now that the various wind chill advisory products have expired, the advisories associated with the potential midweek storm will likely be the most prominent feature on the BTV NWS advisory maps.  So, I’ve added the current advisory and projected accumulations maps below.  This event looks like it has the potential to be a bit more productive in this area with respect to accumulation than many of the recent coastal-based synoptic systems, with a general 12-18” indicated from the Greens eastward.

 

12MAR17A.jpg

 

12MAR17B.jpg

 

WWUS41 KBTV 121923

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Burlington VT

323 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

 

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-130900-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0003.170314T1100Z-170316T0000Z/

Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-

Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-

Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-

Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-

Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-

Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-

Eastern Rutland-

Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake,

Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry,

Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh,

South Hero, St. Albans, Newport, Island Pond, Burlington,

Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes,

Bradford, Randolph, Rutland, Springfield, White River Junction,

Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,

East Wallingford, and Killington

323 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING

THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

 

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Tuesday morning

through Wednesday evening.

 

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow.

 

* Accumulations...Generally 6 to 12 inches across northern New

  York, and 8 to 14 inches across central and northern Vermont.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...1 to 2 inches per hour, mainly Tuesday

afternoon through evening.

 

* Timing...The snow is expected to develop Tuesday morning, and

  possibly become heavy at times Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday

  night. An extended period of steady light snow may continue

  through Wednesday. The Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning

  commutes are expected to be especially difficult. 

 

* Locations...Northern New York and Central and Northern Vermont

 

* Impacts...Hazardous winter driving conditions due to snow

  covered roads, low visibility, and blowing and drifting snow.

 

* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, highest on

  Wednesday.

 

* Temperatures...Lows 10 to 15 above. Highs in the lower 20s.

 

* Visibilities...Down to one quarter mile or less at times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant

snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor

the latest forecasts.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go

to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather

situation.

 

&&

 

$$

 

BANACOS

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Eyewall...all of these runs have textbook Champlain Valley convergence.  You will do fine.  Don't worry about it.  As the low level flow goes northerly it'll really pile up in the Champlain Valley.

 

Yeah that was mentioned in the AFD and they mentioned that could takes above 14" if it pans out. That is very encouraging. That is what happened in the Feb system. 

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In his morning broadcast, Roger Hill went with blanket total snowfall numbers of 1 to 2 feet for the valleys, and up to 30 inches for the mountains with upcoming winter storm (Winter Storm Stella).  I’d assume he’s got the potential upslope portion of the storm included in there.  The BTV NWS has gone with a general 12 to 18 inches in the Winter Storm Warning for the Greens eastward, and in the BTV NWS forecast discussion it’s noted that there would be additional upslope snow potential on Wednesday night into Thursday.  Our point forecast at the house sums to 11-21 inches, with additional snow noted for Wednesday Night and Thursday.  Overall it sounds like a general foot or so of snow in the area.  I’ve added the latest BTV NWS advisories and projected accumulations maps below – there’s not actually too much to see on the advisories map because it’s just Winter Storm Warnings across the board.  The projected accumulations map tops out in the 18 to 24-inch range shown in the red shading along the spine and other spots among the Green Mountains.

 

13MAR17A.jpg

 

13MAR17B.jpg

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I love that when you click on BTV's link for the WSW it has tomorrows map and then the text is for a May 2016 Frost Advisory.

http://www.weather.gov/btv/headline1

 

Quote

 

Location       At least     Likely    Potential for        >=0.1"      >=1"        >=2"        >=4"            >=6"       >=8"           >=12"           >=18"

Norwich, VT       9          15           21               100%        100%      100%          99%           96%          92%            72%               28%

 

 

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