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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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I'm curious if this will be a more widespread light snow event like the globals are indicating, or is it more tied to the terrain like the meso-scales are starting to indicate.

Here's the 18z 4km NAM...zoomed in on Montreal as it does get the northern Greens in it.  Its more of a dusting to 1" or maybe 2" for most of the elevations under 1,500ft...but has a good bit for the upslope regions.  Even going to 0.4-0.6" for the Jay Peak area, with 0.3-0.4" for the Smuggs/Stowe area and probably Bolton.  Also can see a nice weenie pocked near Bretton Woods for alex.

 

hires_tprecip_montreal_61_zpsy3mvdrym.pn

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Left my snowcoverd, iced covered frozen tundra for a overnight trip down to Boston.  No snowcover, sun 35F  felt like another world.  Reminds me why I love living up here where winter is real winter...  (usually).  Snowcover builds up steadily north of the Mass/NH line.  Full winter mode north of Concord NH.

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I'm curious if this will be a more widespread light snow event like the globals are indicating, or is it more tied to the terrain like the meso-scales are starting to indicate.

Here's the 18z 4km NAM...zoomed in on Montreal as it does get the northern Greens in it.  Its more of a dusting to 1" or maybe 2" for most of the elevations under 1,500ft...but has a good bit for the upslope regions.  Even going to 0.4-0.6" for the Jay Peak area, with 0.3-0.4" for the Smuggs/Stowe area and probably Bolton.  Also can see a nice weenie pocked near Bretton Woods for alex.

 

hires_tprecip_montreal_61_zpsy3mvdrym.pn

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18 hours ago, bobbutts said:

18 with clear skies and calm winds just before 10pm with a forecast low of 14.  I'm going to take the under on that.

What did you get to?

Given the early radiational cooling followed by clouds, wind, and a fropa, then back down with CAA, I'm okay with 4 degrees (CON got to 10).

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18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

What did you get to?

Given the early radiational cooling followed by clouds, wind, and a fropa, then back down with CAA, I'm okay with 4 degrees (CON got to 10).

I slept through the low and my thermometer while accurate is missing the feature to store anything, so it's a mystery. 

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I was just looking through my December data, and it’s going to be interesting to see where we end up with respect to average snowfall for the month.  We’ve had 24.4” of snow on the month thus far, and it’s felt fairly snowy, but I think in part that’s simply due to the fact that the last three Decembers have been so abysmal.  Another factor making it feel snow was the number if days with flakes - we actually went 17 straight days with some form of snowfall (Dec 3 – Dec 19).  But, there haven’t been any large storms, so what we’ve had is really just keeping pace with average.  There’s definitely some potential ahead (fairly dicey in some cases), but we’ll need at couple of at least moderate events, and/or a lot of upslope etc. if the month is going to end up pushing anywhere past average.

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22 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I'm curious if this will be a more widespread light snow event like the globals are indicating, or is it more tied to the terrain like the meso-scales are starting to indicate.

Here's the 18z 4km NAM...zoomed in on Montreal as it does get the northern Greens in it.  Its more of a dusting to 1" or maybe 2" for most of the elevations under 1,500ft...but has a good bit for the upslope regions.  Even going to 0.4-0.6" for the Jay Peak area, with 0.3-0.4" for the Smuggs/Stowe area and probably Bolton.  Also can see a nice weenie pocked near Bretton Woods for alex.

 

hires_tprecip_montreal_61_zpsy3mvdrym.pn

Some of the higher res models have started to shift this south a little.  I'm still skeptical that the spine gets greater than .5" qpf out of this. 10 days ago, the pattern was more favorable. Now I feel like we have a lot of low level southerly winds and not the same upper atm set-up.  I'm feeling like this is really a 2-4" event. Not that 2-4" isn't fun. Or needed. I know that with 2-4" today and maybe another 1-3" on the 24th the tourons will be super happy as it will look like winter again. 

 

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27 minutes ago, adk said:

Some of the higher res models have started to shift this south a little.  I'm still skeptical that the spine gets greater than .5" qpf out of this. 10 days ago, the pattern was more favorable. Now I feel like we have a lot of low level southerly winds and not the same upper atm set-up.  I'm feeling like this is really a 2-4" event. Not that 2-4" isn't fun. Or needed. I know that with 2-4" today and maybe another 1-3" on the 24th the tourons will be super happy as it will look like winter again. 

 

That's been my thoughts on this event the whole time...maybe a spot 5" amount somewhere up at 4000ft but its a 2-3/2-4" type deal I think.

Saturday is starting to look better for a couple more inches of dense snow.

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2-3" on the mountain... actually its more like 2.5-3.0" and not elevation dependent at all.  It seems very even based on the 3" at 3,000ft and 2.5" at 1,500ft with no real orographic enhancement...which makes sense with the synoptic level lift in this first burst.

Looks like its more elevation dependent again down in the Mad River Valley though with 1-4" at Sugarbush so far.

Here's 3000ft at 9:20am:

Dec_22.jpg

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25 minutes ago, adk said:

It was a good three though PF. Had some moisture with it so skied and bonded well with the hard surfaces. Should do a lot to the feel of the place heading into the holiday week. 

Yeah I think we could add another 1-2" later and maybe with whatever upslope response we get.

Its still snowing but only like quarter inch or less per hour.

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Okay: Driveway advice being sought.

Driveway at the new house is steep, paved, and about 80 yards long, on north side of hill, lots of trees.  Last Saturday's mix left icy spots and some glacial like packed snow in spots.  The last two nights I have not been able to get more than 3/4ths of the way up before sliding back down.  Tonight I will get home to 2 to 3 inches of pristine snow on top of the offending ice.

So: do I park at the bottom and clean off the snow in the hopes that the balance will melt or do I just drive on up and see if the snow gives me enough grip to make it up?

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