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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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All things considered...not much damage overall from the heavy rain and 8 hours of warmth today.  It poured though but all that rain was easily absorbed by the cold snowpack.

Given I only saw a drop of 3-4" at 1,500ft and even less at home, all this did was compact the snow instead of melt it.

The COOP stake dropped down to 36" but that's a VERY solid 36" now given a temp in the low teens now...like sidewalk/pavement type solid.  Going to set the base for the entire season.  Get 6-10" and we are back ripping powder in the woods again.

Added another 1" of liquid in rain last night but basically just beefed up the staying power of the snowpack.  All in all, a good way to run a "Grinch" system.

Daily Hydrometeorological Data
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

Station            Precip   Temperature   Present         Snow
                   24 Hrs   Max Min Cur   Weather     New Total SWE
...Vermont...
Mount Mansfield     0.96    45  14  14                  T  36
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33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I picked up 0.2" in a heavier snow shower.  Big floaty dendrites. 

Down to 9F at 1500ft.  Impressive cold air push in the lower levels.  

That'll really give some lube to those black ice spots.  I think it was Tamarack who commented a few years ago on the fact that clear ice with a skiff of snow on it may be the surface type that has the least amount of friction. 

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Event totals: 3.8” Snow/0.90” L.E.

 

I headed into the Champlain Valley this evening for a Christmas party, so I’ll pass along what I saw in terms of snowpack – at least to the extent that my headlights would allow.  The first thing to note is that the road conditions were excellent.  I was going to skip the party if the roads were sketchy, but it was smooth, dry blacktop all the way.  Heading westward, snowpack seemed pretty solid until about Jonesville, and essentially from there all the way through to Burlington, coverage looked 50/50.  Based on what eyewall had said I thought I’d find the entirety of the greater Burlington area devoid of snow, but that’s definitely not the case.  When I was traveling through Colchester, every house I saw had full coverage, with what looked like a solid couple of inches.  It wasn’t until I got right on the lakeshore at Colchester Point that I found yards showing mostly grass.  So, there are definitely going to be people in the Burlington area that still have solid snow coverage.

 

On the way home, the roads were clear until I approached the pass here along the Waterbury/Bolton line, where there was snow in the road where cars hadn’t traveled.  It wasn’t like that when I left, so presumably we had some bouts of flakes while I was gone.  I found 0.3” on the snowboards, so that’s been the backside snow from Winter Storm Decima at our site up to this point.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 15.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

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22 hours ago, adk said:

I don't think there is anything proprietary in saying that freezing rain in a rural area causes outages. 

Any word on what 89 is like? VTrans hasn't been on top of that road lately. 

Sorry for the late response, but my internship with VTrans is over so I'm not too sure :P. I intern with VLITE now.

 I drove down 89 this afternoon to avoid the Notch and noticed it was slippery, as well. 91 wasn't great either and this was after 3pm! The typical 'right lane is fine' vs. 'pass at your own risk left lane' with ice in between tire tracks. I felt slippage to about White River Junction then the roads became mostly dry.

As for prediction outages, a friend of mine built this very simplistic model to forecast power outages. It works fairly well (all things considered), but it needs some tweaking. It had a coefficient of determination value of roughly 45%ish based on observations between 40ish locations during the Dec 2013 ice event across VT. We use a couple NWP variables to predict ice fraction which we then use to estimate ice loads on utility wires based on the statistical average between towns. There's a solid exponential relationship between ice load and outages for zoned locations (towns). We know each towns coverage in terms of mile-wire so we can approximate outages during an ice event. Pretty neat stuff imo!!! 

Pretty crude, but effective. I've been updating this model on a case by case basis. VEC and GMP take our estimates pretty seriously.

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13 hours ago, mreaves said:

That'll really give some lube to those black ice spots.  I think it was Tamarack who commented a few years ago on the fact that clear ice with a skiff of snow on it may be the surface type that has the least amount of friction. 

Good memory.  That was knowledge gleaned from numerous unplanned impacts on such surfaces.  However, it is fully true only when the ice and the snow are well below 32.  Snow upon wet ice followed by cold can offer very good traction.   Unfortunately, we garnered nary a flake as yesterday's low and wet 30s became this morning's zero.  Storm #2 brought 0.37" precip, mostly ZR with some IP at the start and plain rain (very light) at the end, only costing 2" of the 12 at the stake Saturday evening.

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17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Get 6-10" and we are back ripping powder in the woods again.

 

Man, I continue to like the look of the GFS with that Thursday system to get things softened back up – it’s looked like it’s had potential for a number of runs.  The BTV NWS isn’t talking about it much yet in their discussion, but there is the potential Wednesday system as well, which seems to only graze the area, and they do mention that one.

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 346 AM EST Monday...No significant weather expected in the extended period from Wednesday night onward...but there will be a few systems impacting the region. First is a shortwave trough moving into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Most of the forcing with this system stays north of the border and our area stays on the warmer side of this system with surface low tracking just north of our area. Thus looking at rain and snow for precipitation. There may be some upslope precipitation on the backside of this system Thursday night into Friday with relatively quiet weather Friday night into Saturday as a weak upper trough passes to our north once again.

 

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The BTV NWS is starting to cover the potential Wednesday/Thursday stuff a bit more now in their forecast discussion.:

 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 236 PM EST Monday...Active weather returns for the extended period from Wednesday night onward, with two systems we`re keeping our eyes on. The first which we`ve been  highlighting now for a few days will be a weak clipper-like  system tracking through the Great Lakes Wednesday night, and  through the Northeast on Thursday. Aloft, mid-level shortwave  energy is fairly potent, but overall deep layer moisture is lacking as is normally the case with clippers. So while we continue to highlight high probabilities of precipitation occurring, the resulting amounts will generally be on the light side. Nevertheless, we should see widespread light snow develop  across the northern New York towards daybreak Thursday and into  Vermont mid-morning, with thermal profiles supporting mainly  snow as the ptype, but could see a little rain/snow mix in the  deeper Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys for a short period in  the afternoon during max heating. Bulk of the precip exits east Thursday night, but there may be some additional upslope snowfall on the backside of the system as the flow turns to the northwest and some low/mid-level moisture lingers. Storm total snow should mainly be a dusting to 2" in the valleys, and 2-4" elsewhere, locally higher across the northern Greens where up to 6" is possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak.

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah looks like a nice refresher currently for the northern third of New England.

 

Well that could be pretty nice timing as we head into the first weekend of the big holiday period.  The snowpack is obviously robust, but freshening it up and potentially putting some snow back on the trees in town would be great for visitors.  Then of course there’s the benefit of a boost to the actual snow quality on the slopes.

 

The temperatures actually look really comfortable over the weekend as well – I think potential visitors coming up this weekend should be pretty excited overall, even without the possible snow from this week factored in.  If we get snow, all the better.

 

There’s also that potential system at the beginning of next week.  It looks pretty far northwest, but it should be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Next system on the horizon could be a doozy, but at 7 days out uncertainty is high as is typical. Currently, long range guidance of the ECMWF and GFS are highlighting a strong low pressure system developing over the central CONUS Christmas afternoon, and tracking well northwest of our CWA Sunday night. In some fashion we get a warm frontal boundary passage Sunday night into Monday, with thermal profiles supporting a wintry mix, but what that mix is, and when/where is anyone`s guess right now. Could possibly have an impact for travel the day after Christmas, so stay tuned through the week for further updates.

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Elevation ftl this morning. 6.5f, while valleys well below 0.

On my drive into work, the car thermometer bounced around quite a bit, from a low of -7° to a high of 0°.  It's fun watching it as I go up and down the hills.  Often the temps move with small changes in elevation.

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Torch!!

000
NOUS41 KGYX 201438
PNSGYX
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-180235--210238-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
938 AM EST TUE DEC 20 2016

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 23
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/GRAY

***********************LOW TEMPERATURE***********************

LOCATION              MINIMUM     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                         TEMP           OF
                        DEG F   MEASUREMENT

MAINE

...ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...
   AUBURN/LEWISTON MUNI -12.0   656 AM 12/20  AWOS
   1 W LEEDS            -12.0   715 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 W LISBON FALLS     -10.0   725 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NE POWNAL          -10.0   339 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 SSW LISBON FALLS    -9.0   416 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 S TURNER            -8.0   609 AM 12/20  CWOP
   LEWISTON              -6.0   720 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 ENE POWNAL          -5.0   334 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 SE LIVERMORE        -4.0   818 AM 12/20  CWOP

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
   3 WSW NEW GLOUCESTER  -9.0   712 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NNW BRIDGTON        -8.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   6 SSW NAPLES          -7.0   718 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NNW GRAY            -6.0   630 AM 12/20  MESOWEST
   GRAY                  -5.0   259 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 SSW YARMOUTH        -4.0   340 AM 12/20  MEDOT
   BRUNSWICK             -4.0   446 AM 12/20  CWOP
   BRUNSWICK NAVAL AIR   -4.0   439 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   1 NE CUMBERLAND       -4.0   333 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 S GORHAM            -3.0   335 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 S NAPLES            -3.0   800 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 ESE STANDISH        -3.0   410 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 E NORTH WINDHAM     -3.0   400 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 ESE BUXTON          -2.0   124 AM 12/20  CWOP

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   NEW SHARON           -17.0   640 AM 12/20  NEPP
   EUSTIS               -16.0   655 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   CARRABASSETT VALLEY  -15.0   304 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   9 E NEW SHARON       -14.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   1 ENE RANGELEY       -13.0   600 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   3 SSW FARMINGTON     -13.0   610 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   OQUOSSOC             -12.0   530 AM 12/20  HADS
   WELD                 -11.0   732 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NW RANGELEY        -10.0   240 AM 12/20  NEPP
   3 W CHESTERVILLE      -6.0   718 AM 12/20  CWOP
   RANGELEY 2NW          -6.0   600 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER

...KENNEBEC COUNTY...
   1 W SIDNEY           -15.0   553 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 E READFIELD        -11.0   630 AM 12/20  CWOP
   WATERVILLE ROBERT LA -10.0   356 AM 12/20  AWOS
   5 ENE LITCHFIELD     -10.0   724 AM 12/20  CWOP
   FARMINGDALE           -9.0   708 AM 12/20  CWOP
   AUGUSTA STATE AIRPOR  -7.0   653 AM 12/20  ASOS
   3 WSW MOUNT VERNON    -7.0   623 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 SSE WATERVILLE      -7.0   722 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 W OAKLAND           -5.0   616 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 E AUGUSTA           -4.0   756 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 WSW MOUNT VERNON    -3.0   549 AM 12/20  CWOP

...LINCOLN COUNTY...
   3 NNE WHITEFIELD     -12.0   730 AM 12/20  USGS
   1 W WISCASSET         -6.0   507 AM 12/20  CWOP
   WISCASSET AIRPORT     -4.0   453 AM 12/20  ASOS

...OXFORD COUNTY...
   2 WNW ANDOVER        -20.0   640 AM 12/20  NEPP
   4 NW OQUOSSOC        -19.0   700 AM 12/20  MESOWEST
   1 NW BETHEL          -18.0   700 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   RUMFORD  7SW         -17.0   716 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   ANDOVER 2            -17.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   EASTERN SLOPES REGIO -15.0   354 AM 12/20  ASOS
   1 SSE ROXBURY        -15.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   4 E GILEAD           -15.0   723 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 ESE WEST PARIS     -13.0   800 AM 12/20  HADS
   4 NW DENMARK         -12.0   805 AM 12/20  CWOP
   P.O. BOX AT BETHEL   -12.0   741 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 NE WATERFORD       -11.0   722 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 S GREENWOOD        -10.0   618 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NE CASCO            -8.0   757 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 WSW NEWRY           -8.0   730 AM 12/20  AWS
   2 ENE HARTFORD        -7.0   659 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 E HARTFORD          -7.0   645 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   HARTFORD              -1.0  1040 PM 12/19  CO-OP OBSERVER

...SAGADAHOC COUNTY...
   3 NNW TOPSHAM         -9.0   529 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 E BOWDOINHAM        -6.0   451 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 WNW BATH            -5.0   343 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NW BATH             -3.0   530 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   4 SSW GEORGETOWN      -3.0   359 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 W BATH              -3.0   421 AM 12/20  CWOP

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
   3 NW PITTSTON FARM   -21.0   345 AM 12/20  HADS
   PITTSTON FARM        -20.0   710 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   PITTSTON FARM NEPP   -20.0   505 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   3 W NORRIDGEWOCK     -18.0   639 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   2 N MERCER           -18.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   JACKMAN              -17.0   109 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   THE FORKS            -15.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   5 WSW EMBDEN         -14.0   500 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 NNW ROME           -13.0   632 AM 12/20  CWOP
   FLAGSTAFF LAKE       -13.0   630 AM 12/20  HADS
   HARMONY              -13.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BINGHAM              -10.0   645 AM 12/20  HADS
   5 ENE ROME            -8.0   620 AM 12/20  CWOP

...WALDO COUNTY...
   4 NW LINCOLNVILLE     -9.0   315 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 SSW BELFAST         -8.0   514 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   2 SSW ORRINGTON       -5.0   116 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 SW FREEDOM          -1.0  1132 PM 12/19  CWOP

...YORK COUNTY...
   5 WNW HOLLIS         -10.0   620 AM 12/20  NEPP
   1 WSW BUXTON         -10.0   709 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 E CORNISH           -9.0   645 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 SE PARSONSFIELD     -7.0   709 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NW ACTON            -6.0   619 AM 12/20  CWOP
   SANFORD REGIONAL AIR  -4.0   656 AM 12/20  AWOS
   3 N WATERBORO         -1.0   418 AM 12/20  CWOP

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...BELKNAP COUNTY...
   1 ENE BARNSTEAD      -11.0   615 AM 12/20  AWS
   2 W SANBORNTON       -10.0   722 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 ESE SANBORNTON      -9.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   SANBORNTON            -8.0   543 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   LACONIA MUNICIPAL AI  -6.0   608 AM 12/20  AWOS
   1 WSW BELMONT         -5.0   615 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 ENE MEREDITH        -2.0   717 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NW STRAFFORD        -2.0   632 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WSW SANBORNTON      -2.0   647 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 ENE GILFORD         -1.0   645 AM 12/20  HADS

...CARROLL COUNTY...
   3 N CHATHAM          -17.0   815 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 ESE MOULTONBOROUGH -11.0   645 AM 12/20  HADS
   6 WSW JACKSON        -11.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   TAMWORTH 4           -10.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   CONWAY               -10.0   707 AM 12/20  RAWS
   3 NE WOLFEBORO       -10.0   756 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WSW TUFTONBORO      -9.0   633 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 ENE CONWAY          -8.0   645 AM 12/20  USGS
   1 SW FREEDOM          -8.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   NORTH CONWAY          -6.0   800 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   4 N SANDWICH          -5.0   720 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 SE CRAWFORD NOTCH   -5.0   644 AM 12/20  CWOP
   6 SW JACKSON          -3.0   714 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 E WAKEFIELD         -1.0   630 AM 12/20  HADS

...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
   DILLANT-HOPKINS AIRP -12.0   756 AM 12/20  AWOS
   KEENE                -10.0   600 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 W SWANZEY           -9.0   745 AM 12/20  USGS
   3 WSW SWANZEY         -9.0   719 AM 12/20  CWOP
   GILSUM                -8.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 SSE WESTMINSTER     -7.0   745 AM 12/20  GOES
   MARLBOROUGH           -7.0   729 AM 12/20  AWS
   SURRY MOUNTAIN LAKE   -7.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   ALSTEAD               -7.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   OTTER BROOK LAKE      -6.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 W MARLBOROUGH       -6.0   715 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 WNW ROXBURY         -6.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   WALPOLE  2 S NEPP     -5.0   445 AM 12/20  GOES
   1 SSE FITZWILLIAM     -5.0   621 AM 12/20  CWOP
   RICHMOND              -4.0   624 AM 12/20  CWOP
   WALPOLE               -4.0   615 AM 12/20  USARMY-COE
   1 ESE RINDGE          -4.0   525 AM 12/20  CWOP
   JAFFREY MUNICIPAL-SI  -3.0   552 AM 12/20  ASOS
   3 WSW KEENE           -3.0   651 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   3 ESE RINDGE          -1.0   622 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 ESE WESTMORELAND    -1.0   716 AM 12/20  CWOP

...COOS COUNTY...
   1 WNW ERROL          -17.0   640 AM 12/20  NEPP
   BERLIN MUNICIPAL AIR -17.0   652 AM 12/20  ASOS
   ERROL                -15.0   415 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 WNW JEFFERSON      -14.0   449 AM 12/20  CWOP
   MT WASHINGTON REGION -13.0   652 AM 12/20  ASOS
   NORTH STRATFORD      -13.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 ENE GROVETON       -12.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 NE BERLIN          -11.0   726 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 WSW PITTSBURG      -11.0   615 AM 12/20  HADS
   LAKE FRANCIS - PITTS -11.0   545 AM 12/20  NHDES
   BERLIN                -9.0   723 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   10 NE CLARKSVILLE     -6.0  1100 PM 12/19  HADS
   4 NNE CLARKSVILLE     -5.0   620 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   FIRST CONNECTICUT LA  -5.0   620 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 N LANCASTER         -4.0   710 PM 12/19  RAWS
   PINKHAM NOTCH         -3.0   600 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER

...GRAFTON COUNTY...
   PLYMOUTH MUNICIPAL A -15.0   655 AM 12/20  AWOS
   LISBON               -13.0   748 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WNW HEBRON         -11.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 ESE LOWER WATERFOR -10.0   713 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   5 E EASTON           -10.0   534 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   WOODSTOCK            -10.0   706 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   WATERVILLE VALLEY     -9.0   650 AM 12/20  HADS
   LINCOLN               -9.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   ENFIELD               -9.0   603 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 E BETHLEHEM         -9.0   330 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 NW ASHLAND          -8.0   607 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   ASHLAND               -8.0   745 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 NW LINCOLN          -7.0   411 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   LEBANON MUNICIPAL AI  -7.0   741 AM 12/20  ASOS
   3 SW LEBANON          -6.0   740 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WNW ENFIELD         -5.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   BRISTOL               -5.0   549 AM 12/20  CWOP
   5 W LINCOLN           -5.0   304 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   3 WSW LITTLETON       -3.0   746 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WSW BETHLEHEM       -2.0   749 AM 12/20  CWOP

...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
   2 W GOFFSTOWN         -8.0   745 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 W SOUTH HOOKSETT    -5.0   715 AM 12/20  AWS
   1 NW NEW BOSTON       -4.0   716 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 SE HOLLIS           -4.0   312 AM 12/20  CWOP
   HANCOCK               -4.0   730 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 N HILLSBOROUGH      -3.0   722 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NNE GOFFSTOWN       -3.0   708 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 SSE BEDFORD         -3.0   707 AM 12/20  CWOP
   PETERBOROUGH          -3.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   EAST MILFORD          -2.0   730 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 W MANCHESTER        -2.0   745 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 WSW LYNDEBOROUGH    -2.0   700 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 WNW WEARE           -2.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 S NEW IPSWICH       -2.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 SSW HOLLIS          -1.0   718 AM 12/20  CWOP
   MILFORD               -1.0   625 AM 12/20  AWS
   1 SSW MANCHESTER      -1.0   622 AM 12/20  CWOP

...MERRIMACK COUNTY...
   1 E ALLENSTOWN       -13.0   558 AM 12/20  RAWS
   3 WSW BRADFORD       -12.0   800 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   1 ENE CHICHESTER     -12.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 NE CONTOOCOOK      -11.0   742 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 SE WILMOT          -10.0   804 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 E CONCORD          -10.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   CONCORD MUNI ARPT     -9.0   651 AM 12/20  ASOS
   2 SW CONTOOCOOK       -9.0   700 AM 12/20  USGS
   PITTSFIELD            -9.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   DAM                   -9.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   WEST HOPKINTON        -8.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   CONTOOCOOK            -8.0   718 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 E DANBURY           -8.0   736 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 W NORTHFIELD        -8.0   615 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NNW FRANKLIN        -7.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   TILTON                -7.0   630 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 WNW NEW LONDON      -5.0   754 AM 12/20  CWOP
   HOOKSETT              -5.0   723 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NNW WARNER          -4.0   742 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NW CANTERBURY       -3.0   710 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   2 SSW CHICHESTER      -1.0   602 AM 12/20  CWOP

...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
   2 WNW EXETER          -4.0  1245 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 E SOUTH HOOKSETT    -3.0   658 AM 12/20  CWOP
   RAYMOND               -1.0   245 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 ENE LITCHFIELD      -1.0   322 AM 12/20  CWOP

...STRAFFORD COUNTY...
   LAKE SUNAPEE          -5.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   MILTON                -4.0   615 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 S ROCHESTER         -4.0   615 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 WSW FARMINGTON      -4.0   221 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 E BARRINGTON        -2.0   415 AM 12/20  USGS
   NH DURHAM 2 SSW       -1.0   405 AM 12/20  GOES

...SULLIVAN COUNTY...
   2 SE CLAREMONT       -10.0   622 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NE NEWPORT          -8.0   605 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NE CORNISH          -7.0   526 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 WSW CLAREMONT       -6.0   724 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 ENE GOSHEN          -6.0   529 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 SSE SUNAPEE         -6.0   721 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NE GRANTHAM         -5.0   805 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 W CLAREMONT         -4.0   753 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NE CHARLESTOWN      -4.0   811 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NE ACWORTH          -2.0   623 AM 12/20  CWOP

 

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43 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Torch!!


000
NOUS41 KGYX 201438
PNSGYX
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-180235--210238-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
938 AM EST TUE DEC 20 2016

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 23
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/GRAY

***********************LOW TEMPERATURE***********************

LOCATION              MINIMUM     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                         TEMP           OF
                        DEG F   MEASUREMENT

MAINE

...ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...
   AUBURN/LEWISTON MUNI -12.0   656 AM 12/20  AWOS
   1 W LEEDS            -12.0   715 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 W LISBON FALLS     -10.0   725 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NE POWNAL          -10.0   339 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 SSW LISBON FALLS    -9.0   416 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 S TURNER            -8.0   609 AM 12/20  CWOP
   LEWISTON              -6.0   720 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 ENE POWNAL          -5.0   334 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 SE LIVERMORE        -4.0   818 AM 12/20  CWOP

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
   3 WSW NEW GLOUCESTER  -9.0   712 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NNW BRIDGTON        -8.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   6 SSW NAPLES          -7.0   718 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NNW GRAY            -6.0   630 AM 12/20  MESOWEST
   GRAY                  -5.0   259 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 SSW YARMOUTH        -4.0   340 AM 12/20  MEDOT
   BRUNSWICK             -4.0   446 AM 12/20  CWOP
   BRUNSWICK NAVAL AIR   -4.0   439 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   1 NE CUMBERLAND       -4.0   333 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 S GORHAM            -3.0   335 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 S NAPLES            -3.0   800 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 ESE STANDISH        -3.0   410 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 E NORTH WINDHAM     -3.0   400 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 ESE BUXTON          -2.0   124 AM 12/20  CWOP

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   NEW SHARON           -17.0   640 AM 12/20  NEPP
   EUSTIS               -16.0   655 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   CARRABASSETT VALLEY  -15.0   304 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   9 E NEW SHARON       -14.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   1 ENE RANGELEY       -13.0   600 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   3 SSW FARMINGTON     -13.0   610 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   OQUOSSOC             -12.0   530 AM 12/20  HADS
   WELD                 -11.0   732 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NW RANGELEY        -10.0   240 AM 12/20  NEPP
   3 W CHESTERVILLE      -6.0   718 AM 12/20  CWOP
   RANGELEY 2NW          -6.0   600 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER

...KENNEBEC COUNTY...
   1 W SIDNEY           -15.0   553 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 E READFIELD        -11.0   630 AM 12/20  CWOP
   WATERVILLE ROBERT LA -10.0   356 AM 12/20  AWOS
   5 ENE LITCHFIELD     -10.0   724 AM 12/20  CWOP
   FARMINGDALE           -9.0   708 AM 12/20  CWOP
   AUGUSTA STATE AIRPOR  -7.0   653 AM 12/20  ASOS
   3 WSW MOUNT VERNON    -7.0   623 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 SSE WATERVILLE      -7.0   722 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 W OAKLAND           -5.0   616 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 E AUGUSTA           -4.0   756 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 WSW MOUNT VERNON    -3.0   549 AM 12/20  CWOP

...LINCOLN COUNTY...
   3 NNE WHITEFIELD     -12.0   730 AM 12/20  USGS
   1 W WISCASSET         -6.0   507 AM 12/20  CWOP
   WISCASSET AIRPORT     -4.0   453 AM 12/20  ASOS

...OXFORD COUNTY...
   2 WNW ANDOVER        -20.0   640 AM 12/20  NEPP
   4 NW OQUOSSOC        -19.0   700 AM 12/20  MESOWEST
   1 NW BETHEL          -18.0   700 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   RUMFORD  7SW         -17.0   716 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   ANDOVER 2            -17.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   EASTERN SLOPES REGIO -15.0   354 AM 12/20  ASOS
   1 SSE ROXBURY        -15.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   4 E GILEAD           -15.0   723 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 ESE WEST PARIS     -13.0   800 AM 12/20  HADS
   4 NW DENMARK         -12.0   805 AM 12/20  CWOP
   P.O. BOX AT BETHEL   -12.0   741 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 NE WATERFORD       -11.0   722 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 S GREENWOOD        -10.0   618 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NE CASCO            -8.0   757 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 WSW NEWRY           -8.0   730 AM 12/20  AWS
   2 ENE HARTFORD        -7.0   659 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 E HARTFORD          -7.0   645 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   HARTFORD              -1.0  1040 PM 12/19  CO-OP OBSERVER

...SAGADAHOC COUNTY...
   3 NNW TOPSHAM         -9.0   529 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 E BOWDOINHAM        -6.0   451 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 WNW BATH            -5.0   343 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NW BATH             -3.0   530 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   4 SSW GEORGETOWN      -3.0   359 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 W BATH              -3.0   421 AM 12/20  CWOP

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
   3 NW PITTSTON FARM   -21.0   345 AM 12/20  HADS
   PITTSTON FARM        -20.0   710 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   PITTSTON FARM NEPP   -20.0   505 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   3 W NORRIDGEWOCK     -18.0   639 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   2 N MERCER           -18.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   JACKMAN              -17.0   109 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   THE FORKS            -15.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   5 WSW EMBDEN         -14.0   500 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 NNW ROME           -13.0   632 AM 12/20  CWOP
   FLAGSTAFF LAKE       -13.0   630 AM 12/20  HADS
   HARMONY              -13.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BINGHAM              -10.0   645 AM 12/20  HADS
   5 ENE ROME            -8.0   620 AM 12/20  CWOP

...WALDO COUNTY...
   4 NW LINCOLNVILLE     -9.0   315 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 SSW BELFAST         -8.0   514 AM 12/20  NONFEDAWOS
   2 SSW ORRINGTON       -5.0   116 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 SW FREEDOM          -1.0  1132 PM 12/19  CWOP

...YORK COUNTY...
   5 WNW HOLLIS         -10.0   620 AM 12/20  NEPP
   1 WSW BUXTON         -10.0   709 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 E CORNISH           -9.0   645 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 SE PARSONSFIELD     -7.0   709 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NW ACTON            -6.0   619 AM 12/20  CWOP
   SANFORD REGIONAL AIR  -4.0   656 AM 12/20  AWOS
   3 N WATERBORO         -1.0   418 AM 12/20  CWOP

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...BELKNAP COUNTY...
   1 ENE BARNSTEAD      -11.0   615 AM 12/20  AWS
   2 W SANBORNTON       -10.0   722 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 ESE SANBORNTON      -9.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   SANBORNTON            -8.0   543 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   LACONIA MUNICIPAL AI  -6.0   608 AM 12/20  AWOS
   1 WSW BELMONT         -5.0   615 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 ENE MEREDITH        -2.0   717 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NW STRAFFORD        -2.0   632 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WSW SANBORNTON      -2.0   647 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 ENE GILFORD         -1.0   645 AM 12/20  HADS

...CARROLL COUNTY...
   3 N CHATHAM          -17.0   815 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 ESE MOULTONBOROUGH -11.0   645 AM 12/20  HADS
   6 WSW JACKSON        -11.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   TAMWORTH 4           -10.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   CONWAY               -10.0   707 AM 12/20  RAWS
   3 NE WOLFEBORO       -10.0   756 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WSW TUFTONBORO      -9.0   633 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 ENE CONWAY          -8.0   645 AM 12/20  USGS
   1 SW FREEDOM          -8.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   NORTH CONWAY          -6.0   800 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   4 N SANDWICH          -5.0   720 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 SE CRAWFORD NOTCH   -5.0   644 AM 12/20  CWOP
   6 SW JACKSON          -3.0   714 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 E WAKEFIELD         -1.0   630 AM 12/20  HADS

...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
   DILLANT-HOPKINS AIRP -12.0   756 AM 12/20  AWOS
   KEENE                -10.0   600 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 W SWANZEY           -9.0   745 AM 12/20  USGS
   3 WSW SWANZEY         -9.0   719 AM 12/20  CWOP
   GILSUM                -8.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 SSE WESTMINSTER     -7.0   745 AM 12/20  GOES
   MARLBOROUGH           -7.0   729 AM 12/20  AWS
   SURRY MOUNTAIN LAKE   -7.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   ALSTEAD               -7.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   OTTER BROOK LAKE      -6.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 W MARLBOROUGH       -6.0   715 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 WNW ROXBURY         -6.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   WALPOLE  2 S NEPP     -5.0   445 AM 12/20  GOES
   1 SSE FITZWILLIAM     -5.0   621 AM 12/20  CWOP
   RICHMOND              -4.0   624 AM 12/20  CWOP
   WALPOLE               -4.0   615 AM 12/20  USARMY-COE
   1 ESE RINDGE          -4.0   525 AM 12/20  CWOP
   JAFFREY MUNICIPAL-SI  -3.0   552 AM 12/20  ASOS
   3 WSW KEENE           -3.0   651 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   3 ESE RINDGE          -1.0   622 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 ESE WESTMORELAND    -1.0   716 AM 12/20  CWOP

...COOS COUNTY...
   1 WNW ERROL          -17.0   640 AM 12/20  NEPP
   BERLIN MUNICIPAL AIR -17.0   652 AM 12/20  ASOS
   ERROL                -15.0   415 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 WNW JEFFERSON      -14.0   449 AM 12/20  CWOP
   MT WASHINGTON REGION -13.0   652 AM 12/20  ASOS
   NORTH STRATFORD      -13.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 ENE GROVETON       -12.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 NE BERLIN          -11.0   726 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 WSW PITTSBURG      -11.0   615 AM 12/20  HADS
   LAKE FRANCIS - PITTS -11.0   545 AM 12/20  NHDES
   BERLIN                -9.0   723 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   10 NE CLARKSVILLE     -6.0  1100 PM 12/19  HADS
   4 NNE CLARKSVILLE     -5.0   620 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   FIRST CONNECTICUT LA  -5.0   620 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 N LANCASTER         -4.0   710 PM 12/19  RAWS
   PINKHAM NOTCH         -3.0   600 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER

...GRAFTON COUNTY...
   PLYMOUTH MUNICIPAL A -15.0   655 AM 12/20  AWOS
   LISBON               -13.0   748 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WNW HEBRON         -11.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 ESE LOWER WATERFOR -10.0   713 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   5 E EASTON           -10.0   534 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   WOODSTOCK            -10.0   706 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   WATERVILLE VALLEY     -9.0   650 AM 12/20  HADS
   LINCOLN               -9.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   ENFIELD               -9.0   603 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 E BETHLEHEM         -9.0   330 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 NW ASHLAND          -8.0   607 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   ASHLAND               -8.0   745 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 NW LINCOLN          -7.0   411 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   LEBANON MUNICIPAL AI  -7.0   741 AM 12/20  ASOS
   3 SW LEBANON          -6.0   740 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WNW ENFIELD         -5.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   BRISTOL               -5.0   549 AM 12/20  CWOP
   5 W LINCOLN           -5.0   304 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   3 WSW LITTLETON       -3.0   746 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 WSW BETHLEHEM       -2.0   749 AM 12/20  CWOP

...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
   2 W GOFFSTOWN         -8.0   745 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 W SOUTH HOOKSETT    -5.0   715 AM 12/20  AWS
   1 NW NEW BOSTON       -4.0   716 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 SE HOLLIS           -4.0   312 AM 12/20  CWOP
   HANCOCK               -4.0   730 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 N HILLSBOROUGH      -3.0   722 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NNE GOFFSTOWN       -3.0   708 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 SSE BEDFORD         -3.0   707 AM 12/20  CWOP
   PETERBOROUGH          -3.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   EAST MILFORD          -2.0   730 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   2 W MANCHESTER        -2.0   745 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 WSW LYNDEBOROUGH    -2.0   700 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 WNW WEARE           -2.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 S NEW IPSWICH       -2.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 SSW HOLLIS          -1.0   718 AM 12/20  CWOP
   MILFORD               -1.0   625 AM 12/20  AWS
   1 SSW MANCHESTER      -1.0   622 AM 12/20  CWOP

...MERRIMACK COUNTY...
   1 E ALLENSTOWN       -13.0   558 AM 12/20  RAWS
   3 WSW BRADFORD       -12.0   800 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   1 ENE CHICHESTER     -12.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 NE CONTOOCOOK      -11.0   742 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 SE WILMOT          -10.0   804 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 E CONCORD          -10.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   CONCORD MUNI ARPT     -9.0   651 AM 12/20  ASOS
   2 SW CONTOOCOOK       -9.0   700 AM 12/20  USGS
   PITTSFIELD            -9.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   DAM                   -9.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   WEST HOPKINTON        -8.0   700 AM 12/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   CONTOOCOOK            -8.0   718 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 E DANBURY           -8.0   736 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 W NORTHFIELD        -8.0   615 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NNW FRANKLIN        -7.0   730 AM 12/20  HADS
   TILTON                -7.0   630 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 WNW NEW LONDON      -5.0   754 AM 12/20  CWOP
   HOOKSETT              -5.0   723 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NNW WARNER          -4.0   742 AM 12/20  CWOP
   3 NW CANTERBURY       -3.0   710 AM 12/20  NHDOT
   2 SSW CHICHESTER      -1.0   602 AM 12/20  CWOP

...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
   2 WNW EXETER          -4.0  1245 AM 12/20  HADS
   1 E SOUTH HOOKSETT    -3.0   658 AM 12/20  CWOP
   RAYMOND               -1.0   245 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 ENE LITCHFIELD      -1.0   322 AM 12/20  CWOP

...STRAFFORD COUNTY...
   LAKE SUNAPEE          -5.0   715 AM 12/20  HADS
   MILTON                -4.0   615 AM 12/20  HADS
   2 S ROCHESTER         -4.0   615 AM 12/20  HADS
   3 WSW FARMINGTON      -4.0   221 AM 12/20  CWOP
   4 E BARRINGTON        -2.0   415 AM 12/20  USGS
   NH DURHAM 2 SSW       -1.0   405 AM 12/20  GOES

...SULLIVAN COUNTY...
   2 SE CLAREMONT       -10.0   622 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NE NEWPORT          -8.0   605 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NE CORNISH          -7.0   526 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 WSW CLAREMONT       -6.0   724 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 ENE GOSHEN          -6.0   529 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 SSE SUNAPEE         -6.0   721 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NE GRANTHAM         -5.0   805 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 W CLAREMONT         -4.0   753 AM 12/20  CWOP
   2 NE CHARLESTOWN      -4.0   811 AM 12/20  CWOP
   1 NE ACWORTH          -2.0   623 AM 12/20  CWOP

 

Impressive for this time of year. Maybe I can promote our hill as the Florida of Maine.

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Models still look good for a refreshing type snowfall on Thursday... just in time to make it look a little fresher for Christmas.  Plenty of snow on the ground right now for a white Christmas but it does have that firm thaw-freeze look to it.  Would be nice to get some fresh white into the trees, even if just 1-3".

Models have been very consistent in the Mansfield to Jay Peak region though of 3-6" of snowfall over the past several days, and model blend would be 0.3-0.6" QPF.  Lower elevations probably 1-3".

12z EURO went farther south than its previous runs, even bringing an inch or so down into extreme northwest Mass up through CON and into S.ME with 2-4" from the Adirondacks through this area and then eastward to Dryslot and Tamarack.

 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Models still look good for a refreshing type snowfall on Thursday... just in time to make it look a little fresher for Christmas.  Plenty of snow on the ground right now for a white Christmas but it does have that firm thaw-freeze look to it.  Would be nice to get some fresh white into the trees, even if just 1-3".

Models have been very consistent in the Mansfield to Jay Peak region though of 3-6" of snowfall over the past several days, and model blend would be 0.3-0.6" QPF.  Lower elevations probably 1-3".

12z EURO went farther south than its previous runs, even bringing an inch or so down into extreme northwest Mass up through CON and into S.ME with 2-4" from the Adirondacks through this area and then eastward to Dryslot and Tamarack.

 

I'd be very happy with a 3" snowfall. 

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This afternoon’s thoughts from the BTV NWS on the upcoming snow potential are below:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

304 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...Clipper low to approach from the Northern Great lakes Wednesday night, cross north of our forecast area Thursday and off the coast of Maine on Thursday night. Lots of clouds in place through these three periods will keep overnight minimum temperatures very mild, and the diurnal trend small. Light snow will begin in our Western zones Wednesday night, spreading across our entire forecast area on Thursday, then some wrap around Northwesterly flows will linger into Thursday night before ending. This system is a bit more robust then weaker low moving across our area today. QPF will be around a tenth to a third of an inch liquid. Storm total snowfall ranges from an inch to about 4 inches. The higher elevations of Northern Vermont will have up to 5 inches in some spots.

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9 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'd be very happy with a 3" snowfall. 

Yeah I'd be thrilled with even 1-2" to just cover up the brown snowbanks along the Mountain Road, lol.

I drove to BTV yesterday to pick something up on Church Street and cover looked pretty similar (within a couple inches) from here through J.Spins area (generally 5-7") but then it dropped quickly in the Bolton Flats...though I will say that area is wind-blown and never seems to have much snow regardless and the highway is on the south facing side of the valley.  Hard to get a good judge of snow in there.  Snow cover seemed to ramp back up a little to like 3-4" in the French Hill area of Williston where its more wooded, then dropped again to patchy cover in the open fields that get blasted by southerly winds approaching BTV.  Inside BTV proper though there seemed to be 2-3" in some yards and none in others...overall I'd say there was 1-2" of cover on average there.

Certainly though driving around Stowe and Waterbury is a different overall feel and look than the BTV area.  Big difference east of the spine vs. west of the spine in that regard.  6-7" of firm snow that you can practically walk on may not seem like much but gives a definite winter vibe that sometimes the Champlain Valley can be lacking.  Definitely a big reason why I wanted to move east of the mountains after 6 years in BTV land....as well as being closer to work, lol.

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