Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Euro breaks out light snow Sunday afternoon from west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I thought the runs weren't that great south of the pike and near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The European looks decent but as far as trends go, not what I wanted to see overall. We'll see what 12z does. Looks good in this NNE pattern though for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Nothing like the cold wet slap of reality in SNE this time of year! I'm going for 1-3 in ORH with a (cold) change over that will make it disappear by Monday afternoon. 40F and raining is literally painful in the joints. But the season is young and there are a few decent chances before the annual Grinch storm. OK, whining over. On to the next thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 a few inches of snow for those of us who haven't had an inch plus event would be normal for mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Nothing like the cold wet slap of reality in SNE this time of year! I'm going for 1-3 in ORH with a (cold) change over that will make it disappear by Monday afternoon. 40F and raining is literally painful in the joints. But the season is young and there are a few decent chances before the annual Grinch storm. OK, whining over. On to the next thing! Worcester will probably stay rather cold. I'd take the under on temps there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I don't see how anime more than 15-20 miles inland goes above freezing with that Euro look. In fact, areas that go to ice could go back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don't see how anime more than 15-20 miles inland goes above freezing with that Euro look. In fact, areas that go to ice could go back to snow Your spell check created an interesting and amusing image there, Kevin. I took me a few to figure out that you weren't referring to Pikachu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don't see how anime more than 15-20 miles inland goes above freezing with that Euro look. In fact, areas that go to ice could go back to snow No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Today will be getting into the euro wheelhouse (as long as they didn't screw that up with recent updates).The 12z runs will start getting more weight overall but minor shifts in track mean a lot regarding srfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No. Yup. He's in denial...still living the dream from 12z yesterday lol, but he knows that the runs have gone in the negative direction from yesterday. Reality is a B tch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup. He's in denial...still living the dream from 12z yesterday lol, but he knows that the runs have gone in the negative direction from yesterday. Reality is a B tch. It's not that bad, I just don't agree with his assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I don't agree either. If things don't improve at 12z and going forward(track and location/strength of HP), then this will change to rain for most in SNE south of Worcester/Money Pit Mike. That HP yesterday was perfectly placed and building back in. On the latest runs that doesn't seem to be the case(hope it trends back the other way today and going forward). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don't agree either. If things don't improve at 12z and going forward(track and location/strength of HP), then this will change to rain for most in SNE south of Worcester/Money Pit Mike. That HP yesterday was perfectly placed and building back in. On the latest runs that doesn't seem to be the case(hope it trends back the other way today and going forward). Trying to give MPM rain....them are fightin words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I said south of MPM lol...he turns to ice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Well, it looks like the jury's still out as to whether Sun p.m./Monday will be a low impact snow-even Sun p.m/Monday or a low impact snow-to-rain event. Hopefully 12z will provide better agreement. I'm more intrigued by and hopeful for the 2nd system. Man, is NAM a torch. Now that I'm looking at this from over the top of the transparent cumulus towers rising above my morning coffee, ... I still see everything the same way - not that you asked or know inherently what that 'same way' means. The satellite altitude broad-scoped perspective of this scenario suggests it would be unwise, more so than usual ( relative to respective lead-time frames) to focus on a given cycle/solution from x-y-z model. Verbatim, most guidance have gental isentropic lift associated with early WAA streaming way, waaay out ahead of the main impulse. That should impart thickening clouds through the weekend and probably Sunday ends up calm and gray with maybe dim orbed sun completely gone by 1 pm or so. The radar for the region is festooned with shredded level 1/2 greens.. but other than a flit of white that catches the eye of a christmas stressed dad walking across the parking lot of a Mall, no one's really reporting. I kind of visualize the day like that. Things coalesce with more importance as the gray tinted dusk settles in and street lamps start slipping teeny plates and individual dentrites... kinda like what ends up on the shoulders of a recovering alcoholic after combing their hair. That should get more obviously inundating overnight and Monday I think is just a snowy commute. Not sure how much but expect inconveniences... The popsicle headache version below: The problem is as has always been for this lead up and scenario, and that is that we have very to extreme cold in mid and lower Canada (and associated low geometric heights). Meanwhile, there are modest summer tendencies refusing to acquiesce to seasonal change along the entire expanse from the SW all the way across into the Atlantic Basin at those ~ latitudes. That is causing a very stressed, high velocity mid level flow and as is usually the case in fast flow regimes .. model's are equally stressed. Errors are no longer at a premium for timing and amplitude regarding how they handle the various events rippling... actually, catapulted through the flow is more like it. I don't buy the NAM's solution (ironically, considering OceanWx and I were just discussing how the NAM should benefit by 10-fold increase in computing power recently brought on line by NCEP et al..) Despite that, the speed of system translation balanced against the amount of cold air in place and most importantly BACK-LOADED by fresh dense polar high while the system razor edges through the flow just underneath makes it both intuitively, and to a great deal logically very hard to believe the NAM would succeed at blithely punching 50 F air clear to CON NH like that (or whatever dream it was sellng...). If that happens above the 900 mb level (it's overall solution) we have an ice storm down here. Even the Euro being similar if perhaps 2 F warmer everywhere, is still prone to increased error despite being now pretty high up the hockey-stick curve of it's skill range. Nevertheless, it seems to have a better respect for boundary layer inhibition associated with that cold air. One aspect that occurs to me; that is all beneath the latitudes of the governing confluence medium that created the high. It's sort of like watching the surface of a river near the bank, where a quasi protected pool near the bank kisses the scream current just out of reach.. You get eddies and so forth along that interface, but the scream current its self never actually changes it's course? That sort of a weak analogy (also) hearkens to why I see the NAM not getting it as far as the fluid-mechanical limitations - the NAM is trying to move the scream current into the pool so to speak. That may be confusing... anyway, we mentioned in the model tech discussion the other day how the NAM and other meso models have become too convention-guided. So...lowering their usefulness at this sort of thing seems plausible based on all that. Anyway, point being ... That high up there is sort of not really part of the main band of ass-hauler westerlies, and so that's going to be wrong more likely in how anything in said band of ass-hauler westerlies interacts along that same sort of interface ...which happens to be us... One thing we know just from conventional experiences (if not a-priori) is that the lowest critical thickness interval (1300 or so metersof which) will be wrong wrong wrong when you have high pressure not only wedged in, but STILL THERE while the maelstrom carries about overhead. That's ur mantra folks - don't forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 So in English your saying that the High isn't going anywhere....and will exert it's force to create snow or frozen precip inland??? Did I get the jist of your post right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I'm still trying to translate the first line! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Tough to understand Tip sometimes. I have no idea about what he's actually saying about the upcoming event. Still thinking it will go over to rain in ORH, though maybe it will be FRZRA. At any rate, nothing significant unless the ice starts to accumulate on trees and , especially, roads. Hope I'm wrong and we get 5-8 snow and no significant melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I think I actually understood most of Tip's post this go round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Me too, although I still think it needed a TL;DR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 He is saying the HP to the north has staying power - its well protected, while the fast flow skirts around it's perifory rather than perforate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Tip should offer up his gift of clear, concise communication to help the NWS with their gridpoint forecasts during mixed precipitation events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: He is saying the HP to the north has staying power - its well protected, while the fast flow skirts around it's perifory rather than perforate it. lol so then I was right with my response to Tip...cuz that's what I was thinking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 He's saying in his eyes not much has changed since yesterday unless you bought into the the 8-20" the Euro showed . He's saying light snow in afternoon turns into steady snow at night With solid advisory snows regionally. And that the 2ndary will follow the tight thermal gradient along or just south of the south coast keeping g most places inland near or below 32 for duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 sorry ... i just felt like being metaphorical - high = cold-favored solutions models = probably not right about timing warm penetration if at all... I mean, really: haven't any of you ever watched steam rising above the rim of a hot beverage? seriously - you don't understand a metaphor like "transpartent cumulus rising above morning coffee" ... yeah, deaf ears/eyes i suppose. but that wasn't complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He's saying in his eyes not much has changed since yesterday unless you bought into the the 8-20" the Euro showed . He's saying light snow in afternoon turns into steady snow at night With solid advisory snows regionally. And that the 2ndary will follow the tight thermal gradient along or just sour of the south coast keeping g most places inland near or below 32 for duration well rats bid! Keven got it right- hahahaha j/k dude... yeah, i'm just not feelin' a penetration of warmth here. i mean, yeah, the high is moving ...perhaps a little faster off to the east, but, one thing we haven't even considered is that there is a snow pack right up to the rim of our geographic area. 'new' ish polar highe creeping over top will get a low level positive feed-back on cold and one should wonder if those indirect influences may also play a role. i can't tell you how many times a scenario like this ended up having to be now-cast through an icing event as a constant correction to failed warm penetration in my time. i dunno - stranger things have happened so don't pistol whip me when physical laws break down and warm wins - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: sorry ... i just felt like being metaphorical - high = cold-favored solutions models = probably not right about timing warm penetration if at all... I mean, really: haven't any of you ever watched steam rising above the rim of a hot beverage? seriously - you don't understand a metaphor like "transpartent cumulus rising above morning coffee" ... yeah, deaf ears/eyes i suppose. but that wasn't complicated. sorry man, some of us are simpletons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Early in the run still, but I think 12z GFS will probably be colder than the 06z run. Heights are looking a bit better in E Quebec through 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: sorry man, some of us are simpletons. no .. i give you credit as not being "simple minded" i do, however, equally give you my sympathies for having your mind be dimmed and dumbed by this auto-pilot instant gratification technology we are submerged in.. An easy victim of which is any time one could stop to appreciate things doesn't really happen. and, it doesn't then lend to creating a mind that is pre-prepared to reading a metaphor like 'steam compared to cumulus' and so forth. it's not ur fault. people just don't read anymore - it's a shrinking preference regardless. everything is emogees and rebus' on their portable devices. Tweets? absolutely murder the virtue of poetry and creative dialogue/exchange of opine and ideas. it's a conditioning thing. if you are young, it's status quo. if you are older ..say Gen x and more, you sense a dearth in virtuosity and value in just about everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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