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Dec 11-12 Storm Threat


UlsterCountySnowZ

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

850s jump from -10 to +5 in a 4 hour period

That should provide some heavy snow for Albany to Lake George to cash in on. SWFEs just suck in general for this area. Maybe your area iced over for a good while-the surface will be tough to warm up much. Down by the coast and in the city it will spike well into the 40s, maybe in a few hours. The high can be as strong as it wants to be, when the wind turns onshore with the water so warm it's guaranteed to be over immediately. 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

GGEM 

IMG_0704.PNG

Yeah...even that looks like a slushy inch or so at most anywhere near the coast, and advisory level starting around I-287 to northern Rockland/Westchester. I know snowmaps are untrustworthy, but if anything they generally overdo totals. Averaging this with other models just about makes you write it off outside of the far north and west suburbs for more than 2 or 3". 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah...even that looks like a slushy inch or so at most anywhere near the coast, and advisory level starting around I-287 to northern Rockland/Westchester. I know snowmaps are untrustworthy, but if anything they generally overdo totals. Averaging this with other models just about makes you write it off outside of the far north and west suburbs for more than 2 or 3". 

The GFS differences aloft should have been more conducive of a colder solution on the GFS, main difference while tracks are similar on all models is of course H5, as well as the PV diving a bit more south on euro/ggem

 

photo credit goes to Hudson valley weather 

IMG_0705.JPG

IMG_0706.JPG

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23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The GFS differences aloft should have been more conducive of a colder solution on the GFS, main difference while tracks are similar on all models is of course H5, as well as the PV diving a bit more south on euro/ggem

 

photo credit goes to Hudson valley weather 

IMG_0705.JPG

IMG_0706.JPG

I think it's a case where for you that might matter, a colder GGEM solution would result in borderline warning snow vs. a very warm GFS. For the city and coast it's pretty much a done deal unless there's a huge shift and a low taking over south of the area which would keep winds offshore. And that onshore wind looks to really roar quickly, with marginal temps to start anyway for accumulating snow. Low dewpoints might also eat up the initial snow that would accumulate. I'm still hopeful everyone gets at least measurable snow but it will be very short lived near the coast unless there's a marked shift at this range to a less amplified or blockier solution which forces an offshore redevelopment. 

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10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The nam was the most noticeably colder/flatter,. As we draw closer I think a blend between euro/GFS aid a good bet, coating to 1" 2-4" N+W, 3-6" once your up into the capital region north of me even 

The main WAA finger is likely to miss the coast, so I still think at most 1/2 inch there barring some sort of shift south.  This will be one of those cases where SWF and far northern New Jersey are snowing from 10am tomorrow and NYC doesn't see a flake til 7pm 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The main WAA finger is likely to miss the coast, so I still think at most 1/2 inch there barring some sort of shift south.  This will be one of those cases where SWF and far northern New Jersey are snowing from 10am tomorrow and NYC doesn't see a flake til 7pm 

Even that may be generous for up here... dew points are very low, I think virga till atleast midnight Monday am, give or take 3 hours

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem is close to the nam with about a inch for the city. Li and central nj less then a inch. North and west 2-4. 

For the coast the snow will come Sunday late afternoon as the warm front lifts north. Once the main show comes at night it will be to warm by then 

Better than nothing I guess

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