Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 21 minutes ago, OHweather said: Only 0.02" of liquid recorded with that too. There's often some under catch in the gauge when it's snowing, but even with that said it seems this first batch is 20-30:1 It's very fluffy snow for sure. 2.2" here as of 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 0z NAM is not coming in correctly apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: 0z NAM is not coming in correctly apparently... What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The 0z NAM stopped loaded at hour 24. Even the 3km and 4km NAM are not loading at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: What do you mean? He means that parts of the run are missing on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Also on PivotalWeather and WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just over 2" so far in Libertyville, it's a very peaceful snowfall. I've always preferred the sparkling fluff to the paste job we had last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 GRR worried, in the good way. They think the system may under up OVER performing .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 Will be staying the course with this update in terms of headlines, but I am a bit concerned this system may overperform. The snowfall occurs in a 24-30 hour period with fairly high liquid equivalent totals. The lowest QPF is via the ECMWF, on the order of 0.40 to 0.60 across the southern half of the CWA. The GFS is a bit more 0.60 to 0.70. The NAM is the high end, at 0.80 to 1.00. Warm air advection snow events typically are some of our heaviest and we see a warm air advection mode almost the entire duration. On Sunday especially, we see strong isentropic upglide on the 290K surface with 40-50 knots straight up the surfaces, so strong pressure advection with condensation pressure deficits of only 5-10mb's. We want to be able to peruse the entire 00z suite of guidance before making any changes/upgrades to the current forecast. The current forecast has 6-9 inches over 24-30 hours. If the models nudge up just a bit overnight in terms of QPF we may need to upgrade some counties even with the 24-30 hour time frame. My area of concern would be about the southern half of the forecast area. The snow will be working from a 20:1 snow tonight to closer to 10:1 by Sunday evening. Bottom line is it looks to be an impactful snow in both amount and the fact that it will become increasing dense as we move through the event. Another item to keep an eye on will be the lake enhanced snow that is going on right now. This snow will work up the Lake Michigan shoreline tonight. The flow is swinging from SW to S which will eventually take the laminar batch of snow off shore, but between now and 09z or so heavier snows will be working northward through the lakeshore counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Yeah, the NAM quit loading at 24 hrs. Here's the 24 hr snowfall total map. I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Snow has just resumed here. Seems like Iowa City is getting some nice snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Natester said: Snow has just resumed here. Seems like Iowa City is getting some nice snow right now. Not quite here yet. But looking closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The NAM runs are out on the NCEP website, oddly enough. The 4km NAM shows increasing potential of an all snow event for Northwest Ohio, especially north of US Highway 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 This will be a real blockbuster for northwest Ohio compared to any individual storm of last winter! But not so much compared to 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 2" on the nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2.5" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 CHICAGO NWS UPDATE FXUS63 KLOT 110259 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 859 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 .UPDATE... 855 PM CST Evening Update... No changes planned to forecast or headlines at this time, though will be making some minimal changes to near term pops based on radar/obs trends. Initial region of warm-advection forced light snow overspread the region late this afternoon as anticipated, with heavier (mainly moderate) snowfall within a region of frontogenetically-forced northwest-southeast bands. Recent radar trends show this banding has weakened and lifted northeast across southeast WI, Lake Michigan and northern IN at this time. However, 00Z DVN sounding depicts a fairly deeply saturated column with nice veering wind profile signature associated with strong warm-advection. Within this region of persistent upglide, latest high-res guidance continues to support regeneration of transient f-gen banding which should continue to result in periods of moderate or greater intensity snowfall. While we`re currently in a lull in radar returns especially across the western parts of the cwa, stronger returns are blossoming across portions of eastern IA, and would expect an uptick in coverage and intensity later this evening/overnight as forcing and moisture advection persist. With the first band working to moisten initially dry low-levels, will likely see additional bands more efficient in lowering vis and producing heavier snow, and latest RAP soundings suggest a decent period of deeper dendritic growth after 05-06Z. Initial bands of snow have produced 2+" of new snow in many spots across the warning area, which is in line with going forecast amounts through 06Z. Thus not inclined to make any big changes at this time, with expected redevelopment and increase in snow coverage and intensity later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Cyclone about to get into the snow again. Also, the snow is really filling in. I guess the HRRR is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 This will be a real blockbuster for northwest Ohio compared to any individual storm of last winter! But not so much compared to 2013-14.Ah you forget about the April monster that dropped 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 30 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 2.5" here 1.5" here. Nothing falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Areas in Indiana, Lima and Defiance, and Findlay, all getting -SN reports, and 1" storm report from central Indiana. Perhaps some decent snow accumulation rates west of Fort Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 inch here ut it's stopped. Proaly the best we're going to do for North Central In. before the slop moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Chinook said: Areas in Indiana, Lima and Defiance, and Findlay, all getting -SN reports, and 1" storm report from central Indiana. Perhaps some decent snow accumulation rates west of Fort Wayne. That -SN is sticking to surfaces here north of Lima. Still just trace amounts though. Looking forward to those heavier bands as the night goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just started snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2.5" down here - little lull in the action. Looks like returns are still to fire up out to the west though. going with 7-8" imby before all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Staying with 9" prediction here. Already have 3.2" and the snow, although moderate, keeps back-building here near the northern chicago suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3" on the dot in E Aurora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Up to 2.7" this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 After the column was nice and saturated for hours, we've now gone back to a virga storm here, as dry air has intruded from the southwest. Gonna take awhile to resaturate the column, and start the whole process over again. I think our best chance for appreciable precip comes with the final wave arriving mid-morning tomorrow. May get a quick inch of slop out of that before it jets east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Already picked up a couple inches of lake enhanced snow here. Always fun to watch it roll up along the coast on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, blackrock said: Already picked up a couple inches of lake enhanced snow here. Always fun to watch it roll up along the coast on radar. Very noticeable on radar. Enjoy the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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