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Dec. 4th Snow Event


Chicago Storm

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9 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Looks like a good 1-2" event right now, could get another inch or two out of it if thermals improve some more. 

1-2" seems like a reasonable call for the bulk of LOT.  Heavier precip being depicted out west so would not be surprised to see some 3-4" amounts especially in parts of DMX/DVN areas.

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11 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

I like 1-3 out here for my area. Main issues being thermal profiles, especially at the surface, that could hinder accumulation. May even switch to rain in the afternoon which is being shown on some models.

Yeah, thermals are borderline, so any minor shift could make a difference still. 

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If temps weren't so marginal and LSRs were a little better this would be a solid advisory event for the DVN cwa.  Still could see a good 2-3" of wet snow given 0.3-0.45" qpf on most of the models.  Heaviest qpf in the western area, but rain mixing in initially out there.  Gonna go with a solid 3" here.  Could start as some very light rain or a mix here very briefly, so trees should get caked up good with snow given the light winds.

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Models continue to become wetter, with the latest runs going over 0.50" qpf in spots.  Despite the qpf, DVN is not optimistic about the ability of the snow to pile up due to lousy boundary layer temp and warm ground.  It should be a slop fest.  I think if I can get 2 inches it will be a win.  Areas to my northeast and east have a better shot at 3+ inches.  If only the temp was a few degrees lower.

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Wouldn't be surprised to have a sneak attack of more snow and cold on this one in the Detroit area than advertised. Temps are so close a tick down of a degree or two could make all the difference and trends on the past few runs have been promising. Here's to the first thread the needle scenario for the region, time to watch the truth unfold.

 

Hate the lack of fun reads here as of late and the in depth discussions which are so not happening.... Dummies like me are dependent on these conversations !!  Here's to the next Wagon's West and Zzzzz which should be © till further notice.

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Some differences in the models around here with the foreign models being wetter than the American ones.  There will be some dry air to overcome initially but screw it, I'm going bullish.  Going to side with the idea of a heavy enough burst to partially overcome the marginal thermal profiles.  I'm now thinking 2-3" here on colder surfaces.  Farther west out in parts of IA/IL/WI, I'd go 3 to locally 5".

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Some differences in the models around here with the foreign models being wetter than the American ones.  There will be some dry air to overcome initially but screw it, I'm going bullish.  Going to side with the idea of a heavy enough burst to partially overcome the marginal thermal profiles.  I'm now thinking 2-3" here on colder surfaces.  Farther west out in parts of IA/IL/WI, I'd go 3 to locally 5".

Agreed, and it really won't take much for some areas to see more than the forecasted 1-2". A degree could make a pretty big difference. Also models have been trending ever so slightly cooler/wetter with each run, so it's possible. 

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Most of the models seem to be bullseye Cyclone, with 3-5.

Meanwhile, for those of us in NE IN and NW OH, thermal profiles aren't favorable for anything more than a sloppy mix. However, the Canadian continues to show surface temps near freezing for the duration over in this area, which would give us a couple of inches. I just became a fan of this model. :hurrbear:

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Does anyone know how well the HRRR does in these marginal temp kind of events? I noticed that it is significantly colder in a good chunk of Iowa and Illinois than the 4k NAM tomorrow morning. 

 

Edit: It's also at the end of the recent HRRR runs, and I have no idea how much skill it has towards the end of its run.

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Feeling pretty good about this first little event.  Nice to have the first advisory of the season in effect.  

Some models are dropping over 0.50" of precip over in Iowa.  Hawkeye could be in for a good 4-5" even with the marginal BL throughout the event.  Still liking 3" for the QCA and here.  Wouldn't be surprised to get a little more than that, but the models have shifted a little west with the higher QPF the last day or so.  Will be sort of a shock tomorrow morning, as we have yet to see flakes during the daylight hours.  

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FWIW, temps are currently a hair under most guidance here (GFS 2m temps have a pretty good handle).  Sitting at 29 degrees now.  I don't want to go too far down the weenie path but the longer we're below freezing, the more the ground will be chilled even if temps get back on track later on.

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