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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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That H5 pattern isn't too dissimilar to December. The ridge in the east is skewed a bit too because of the cutter signal on D10 but that overall upper air look just didn't bother me like it did some. We're gonna have chances at our latitude when you keep some ridging around up near the Bering.

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40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lipstick on a pig? From day 11 to 15 AN at all levels.  Not exactly the type of pattern that brings joy. Surely it will change but cmon.

eps_t850a_5d_c_noram_61.png

eps_t2anom_m_east_60.png

eps_z500a_5d_noram_61.png

 Not an inferno being shown again. This winter maybe shot but I am trying to hold out hope here.

 

I will take the potential snowfalls before the 11th and onward. Yes that short window of days. The EPS may be breaking down the very strong negative EPO too fast. I think it probably is. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_29.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_31.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_31.png

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man..usually levelheaded Bluewave melting down today in NYC threads with nothing but a great pattern ahead thru the next 15-30 days. Though admittedly NYC on south is on the line

How did he melt down? He is a great poster and being realistic about the pattern for the NYC area. The Eps looked to have the mean trough in the plains with above normal temps in the east. The storm track looked to be close or west of the NYC area. That's not a good look for NYC. Yes you guys probably could fair better as Will said in sne-NNE if the pattern played out that way. I'm not sure why you need to rip and read from the NYC forum, when the pattern can be different for you given your location. The -epo is nice but NYC does better with a +pna/- ao along with that. NNE and places like orh will get their snow this winter regardless 

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12z CMC was close to something big and so was the 12z EURO, also the 12z GFS was close to bringing in a significant snowstorm to Cape Cod and the models are having a tough time with the progressive nature of the flow.  Remember the Boxing Day 2010 system, the models were too progressive with that flow and it ended up happening within a three day span.  Give it until Wednesday before calling it a non event.

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