CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Didn't you say you were starting to buy it? No more like a true -NAO which I don't buy. And of course after I say I hope I don't jinx it, the models sort of lost that Greenland ridge. Still a semblance of it which can helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Looks like the 12z GFS is back to an offshore low, but pretty far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I don't feel great about next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I think it's worth watching. Not hard for even a light event which for these parts is welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 This is back to normal. Everything else with a hit and the ensembles and GFS op ots. Classic setup for nice northeast snow event Fri. Let's see who melts due to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This is back to normal. Everything else with a hit and the ensembles and GFS op ots. Classic setup for nice northeast snow event Fri. Let's see who melts due to the op Thought models were showing way off to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't feel great about next weekend. Me neither. I will check from time to time, but not buying anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: How much Otg now? 15" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said: I am no expert at all but this post seems to make a lot of sense given what has been said for the past month or more it's been a interesting 'verification' season thus far. we seem to be losing as much to a hostile base-line pattern, as we are gaining from 'getting lucky' ... really, we're proobably not too far from normal on the season/Dec for snow, to date? however, that base-line canvas could have very easily produced less. In fact, if it were not for the first -EPO that lasted 5 days several weeks ago, that led pretty directly to that deep arctic plume that timed so perfectly well and necessary so that warm frontal wave event (attached to the western cutter) could work out a snow event. If it were not for all that very fortunately timed series of atmospheric events ... where would we be? i don't speak for everyone, but i am 11" just about on the dot for this season here in Ayer, and removing that...i'd be all of 4.5" of sleet and slush. you know what is also fascinating, Mt Washington closes December as the 2nd snowiest Dec in history? i find that interesting. i can think of a whole lotta science fiction reasons why that may be so when the south is an inferno and the whole pattern can't relax. but in the end... mostly i wonder if the interminable southern/sub-tropical height wall (that's likely a warm ENSO vestige and/or GW related or both...) just pushes the axis of baroclinic action more N in the means. that's probably it... i tell you what... about the only counter-balancing influence/factor at mid latitudes over N/A (and probably the hemisphere as a whole as far as I can tell...) is that EPO domain space. It's been the only offset... otherwise, hoho man. I can imagine what a truly Pac dominated flow late autumn and early winter would have done if it that got around to coming into phase with said southerly heights and that imagination is a true headline warm run. buuut, so long as the epo can find its way negative, it'll shunt the inevitability of an obnoxious early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, 512high said: Thought models were showing way off to the east? Everything is a hit except GFS. For SNE. You haven't been around long Enough but every east coast snow event the GFS typically is ots and last to catch on . It may show one hit like 6z and then be ots for many runs in a row. Some weenies get all worried and think it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Me neither. I will check from time to time, but not buying anything I wasn't making that comment in response to the 12z GFS. I hadn't seen it nor heard of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Thoughts on 12z CMC (if it were to verify)? Seems to really pop a secondary off the coast for Tuesday and track it over ACK, but only spares the mountains of Maine and north the rain (although locks in mid-30s for nearly everyone). Ice storm potential? Or is the antecedent airmass too crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 What I'm seeing on this 12z operational GFS, re the mid week evolution, is a continuation along a trend to commit more and more to a secondary - in fact this version is more outrightly so. the writing on the wall may be that high pressure situated much more ideally N and NE of the New England - regardless of what people want, or how actually cold that air mass resulting actually is, it still represents the kind of BL forcing/kinematics that causes secondaries to form... we'll see. But, originally that was more of a wave and/or inflection on the coastal boundary ... but this version actaully looks like a Miller B - wet producing one, but the low develops on the Del Marva and passes now E of Boston on this particular run. Again, I saw some semblance of slow inching toward more commitment to secondary ...Euro too. This may be where this ends up... Still not out of the question that icing is a problem in some interior climos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 It definitely needs to be watch in CNE and down into nrn ORH. It's possible the icing my be relagated closer to source region in Maine, but certainly needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 For this far south at least, I'm not really concerned too much reg icing. An area like Chris or MPM takes longer to scour out cold. My hood floods with warmth better than them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It definitely needs to be watch in CNE and down into nrn ORH. It's possible the icing my be relagated closer to source region in Maine, but certainly needs to be watched. Prob one of those marginal 31-32 icing for a few spots if it happens but then self destructing into 33/34 rain after a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, ariof said: Thoughts on 12z CMC (if it were to verify)? Seems to really pop a secondary off the coast for Tuesday and track it over ACK, but only spares the mountains of Maine and north the rain (although locks in mid-30s for nearly everyone). Ice storm potential? Or is the antecedent airmass too crap? that's the million dollar question... no way to know for certain. 35 in mist versus 31.9 in persistent ZR are not hugely different meteorologically. i agree with Scott that the source region for the cold/nose/CAD will be more problematic for icing, but we can "tuck" and or just go gradient N and end up 33 down this way just the same. DPs are very important. Lots of local studies show that the intake into a 'drain source' that has DPs less than freezing is pretty critical in actually getting icing to sustain - that's probably true in every icing situation actually.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Congrats Scooter on the CMC.... eastern ma gets clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Big hit SNE GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Congrats Scooter on the CMC.... eastern ma gets clobbered Looks like a norlun trough setup Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Lol, GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Looks like a norlun trough setup Saturday. Ray can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Looks like a norlun trough setup Saturday. Lock it in. Norluns always verify five days out. Every. Single. Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Still clown range. We know the change to colder is coming and that's all I care about. Once you have the cold and it's durable as guidance shows, snow will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I am liking that 12z CMC a series of lows coming up. GFS 12z, doesn't look too bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's been a interesting 'verification' season thus far. we seem to be losing as much to a hostile base-line pattern, as we are gaining from 'getting lucky' ... really, we're proobably not too far from normal on the season/Dec for snow, to date? however, that base-line canvas could have very easily produced less. In fact, if it were not for the first -EPO that lasted 5 days several weeks ago, that led pretty directly to that deep arctic plume that timed so perfectly well and necessary so that warm frontal wave event (attached to the western cutter) could work out a snow event. If it were not for all that very fortunately timed series of atmospheric events ... where would we be? i don't speak for everyone, but i am 11" just about on the dot for this season here in Ayer, and removing that...i'd be all of 4.5" of sleet and slush. you know what is also fascinating, Mt Washington closes December as the 2nd snowiest Dec in history? i find that interesting. i can think of a whole lotta science fiction reasons why that may be so when the south is an inferno and the whole pattern can't relax. but in the end... mostly i wonder if the interminable southern/sub-tropical height wall (that's likely a warm ENSO vestige and/or GW related or both...) just pushes the axis of baroclinic action more N in the means. that's probably it... i tell you what... about the only counter-balancing influence/factor at mid latitudes over N/A (and probably the hemisphere as a whole as far as I can tell...) is that EPO domain space. It's been the only offset... otherwise, hoho man. I can imagine what a truly Pac dominated flow late autumn and early winter would have done if it that got around to coming into phase with said southerly heights and that imagination is a true headline warm run. buuut, so long as the epo can find its way negative, it'll shunt the inevitability of an obnoxious early spring I thought we got lucky two weeks ago too, I would have 4 inches of hostile snow/sleet here as well without that event. I think we will get some mid winter snow in the more "favorable" pattern eventually but my gut tells me this winter will be nothing special for most of us not in the distant interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Ha, what a clown model the Canadian is. Apparently still drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Most inv troughs modeled that far out become either a coastal low or nada OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 28 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: I thought we got lucky two weeks ago too, I would have 4 inches of hostile snow/sleet here as well without that event. I think we will get some mid winter snow in the more "favorable" pattern eventually but my gut tells me this winter will be nothing special for most of us not in the distant interior I'm not really sure ... in parlance of "gut feelings" per se, I'm sort of on the fence there. Part of me feels/senses (and it's not just gut, but I'm actually observing subtle tendencies emerging occasionally in the extended guidance) that the heights in that sub/tropical-equatorial band may relax as the winter ages. ...it may be slow, or it may happen pretty quickly - like dissipation event... But the bubble deflates/pops and that allows the vestigial/seasonal westerlies to finally descend less impeded. wow, in fact this 12z GFS tries to exemplify that whole sort of idea matter of fact. We see in the extended that we're losing both atmospheric depth in the deep S latitudes, as well.. the velocities are subsiding. Almost immediately the GFS spins up a slow mover ..but, of import is that the zygote for all that is a curvature in the flow that doesn't encounter a huge amount of gradient prior to the arrival of the amplitude. ...but, this probably all more of a fortuitous model run considering the conversation points at hand... I have, however, seen the Euro 'relax' things every once in a while, too. The other part of me wonders if it never does relent in the deep south, and then ... we get the inevitable recession of winter in late January but it's so prone to expansion in the south it just takes over and destroys winter. Obviously those two reality could not be more disparate. Hence the fence... On thing of muse, I'm actually a little spooked by one aspect: everything I've said this year, thus far, is finding ways to be right while simultaneously masked by observations that lie and make it look wrong. I don't know what I did to piss off what metaphysical forces there are that really run this fercockta game called operational weather but man my butt could not be more sore these days. kidding of course... I suspect other mets have been troubled by a particular operational weirdness that's going on though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Still clown range. We know the change to colder is coming and that's all I care about. Once you have the cold and it's durable as guidance shows, snow will come. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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