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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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I prob got a foot or so in that 2002 storm.  It came at a tough time for travel.  We had Christmas here as usual.  I was trying to send some of the people home   They thought it would abate.  Nope

somewhere I have a 8mm video that shows the snow ripping past our kitchen door.   It was the storm and winter that convinced us to build our garage

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Changes on EPS today..Building ridging in Alaska after day 10..Would get the cold back into the states by end of year/early 2017

The cold truly never really gets very far away...but yeah, the EPO does reload on the 11-15 day and it would give us some chances probably. Same deal though...can't rule out cutters and all that. Hopefully we get some where the high stays in a good spot. I'd also like to build a PNA ridge hopefully at some point in January...January is probably our most hostile month in dealing with a -PNA in New England...usually we can actually do fine with a -PNA, but if there's one month it becomes more annoying, it's January.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

North side street white. south side green..and thats all from the screamer..no warm sun melt.

8F043DDA-A5B2-4C57-9C7A-4F2305BB410F_zps

Does all the fertilizer you put down in the summer melt your snow faster than the rest of your neighborhood?

It looks like it melted with precision around your property line.

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47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Does all the fertilizer you put down in the summer melt your snow faster than the rest of your neighborhood?

It looks like it melted with precision around your property line.

I'm not sure why.. but in every screamer .. that section of the yard melts quickly . My neighbors all use the good Lesco fert

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37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just seeing the Euro looked pretty good for Thursday for the northern half of New England.  Gets better snow into CNE than its previous run.

Has 1" running from like MPM-Hippy area up through CON...dusting getting close to ORH.  2-4" from the Adirondacks eastward through here and over to Dryslot.

This is where I hate the snow algorithms on models...prob gives a dusting to ORH because the sfc temp spikes to like 36-37F on the model...classic crap output in the marginal atmosphere. It reminds me of when the Euro snow output was like 2-4" in the 2013 firehose storm.

 

That said, I wouldn't predict more than a few stray flakes anyway because the Euro is the most bullish to begin with that far south. It'll prob end up slightly north.

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40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Does all the fertilizer you put down in the summer melt your snow faster than the rest of your neighborhood?

It looks like it melted with precision around your property line.

Not even safe from the sun angle at the winter solstice there. :(

Kidding aside, it pains me to see Kevin without snow on Christmas. If I could give him some from my yard I would. It feels like deep winter here. Looks like a 1" refresher Thu morning.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not even safe from the sun angle at the winter solstice there. :(

Kidding aside, it pains me to see Kevin without snow on Christmas. If I could give him some from my yard I would. It feels like deep winter here. Looks like a 1" refresher Thu morning.

I'm skunked. I'd give anything just to have an inch. Even a heavy dusting . But it's not meant to be . Nothing I can do . Glad for the folks who have one this year 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Meh..not upset anymore. Just more frustrating since we had so much Saturday. You'd think getting 6.5 .. 7 days out would be able to save some. Like I said.. it is what it is. Life goes on. Hopefully some threat pans out after the New Year

Well at least your neighbors on the north side of the street might be able to salvage a few patches for the sleigh to land Saturday night.  Maybe they will let you come over to make a few snowballs.
Seems like you picked the wrong side of the street to live on.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The cold truly never really gets very far away...but yeah, the EPO does reload on the 11-15 day and it would give us some chances probably. Same deal though...can't rule out cutters and all that. Hopefully we get some where the high stays in a good spot. I'd also like to build a PNA ridge hopefully at some point in January...January is probably our most hostile month in dealing with a -PNA in New England...usually we can actually do fine with a -PNA, but if there's one month it becomes more annoying, it's January.

The OO UTC indices show the PNA going positive. Also a possible negative NAO as well. The GEFS the last four runs have been showing blocking developing towards Greenland. It would be nice if we can get both a EPO ridge and a Atlantic blocking ridge as well. 

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4 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

The OO UTC indices show the PNA going positive. Also a possible negative NAO as well. The GEFS the last four runs have been showing blocking developing towards Greenland. It would be nice if we can get both a EPO ridge and a Atlantic blocking ridge as well. 

Yea the pattern looked really nice on the 18z GFS after the brief milder period centered around Christmas, which is blunted anyway by the strong confluence. But it brings the PV really far south and looks to pop a bit of a PNA. A lot of guidance shows a rising PNA and falling EPO by New Year's, which would lend creedence to DT's cold January idea.

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1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

What exactly is the definition of a White Christmas anyways. I know there are probability maps out there, I remember seeing them as a kid on TWC.  Is it depth greater than 1" or just covering the ground? , does mood flakes count? Just curious if it was a quantifiable thing or more subjective in nature .

  

1" or greater OTG.

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