Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ice storm? I have a feeling this weekend could turn into one for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I have a feeling this weekend could turn into one for SNE Agree. Classic look with that 1030mb high southeast of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I have a feeling this weekend could turn into one for SNE Gonna need some energy to hang back...some of the guidance has hinted at this like the Ukie, but I'd like to see some more models come on board. There's not that much time left, we're down to about 108-120 hours out now...so that leaves us only a couple more cycles for when we'd typically still expect larger scale changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Panic button was hit too soon. Stand down from defcon 5. You mean defcon 1. Defcon 5 is the lowest readiness level. Congrats on the snow today dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 You mean defcon 1. Defcon 5 is the lowest readiness level. Congrats on the snow today dude!Ahh yes indeed. Numbers crossed. Thanks. I got lucky with the system today. This is the type of pattern where that's what it will come down to. Luck. Hope you guys get yours soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Agree. Classic look with that 1030mb high southeast of Nantucket. Totally different set up than today. Stronger high , different position different storm track. I'd bet we see some colder changes to your weekend forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 33 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Agree. Classic look with that 1030mb high southeast of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 34 minutes ago, Hazey said: I tend to agree. They been all over the place. Maybe they are right but I wouldn't sweat them for now. Guidance has been extremely volatile in this fast, progressive pattern; this is why I was trying to tell you not get too overwhelmed by any given suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well we have maybe an inch left here today. Maybe 1 tomorrow night and 3-6 Fri nite. So we have done catching up to do Same...hardly anything on the east side of town....nothing next town over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Agree. Classic look with that 1030mb high southeast of Nantucket. You're so mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I have a feeling this weekend could turn into one for SNELocal met calling for periods of rain and 40s on Sunday. Wth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Guidance has been extremely volatile in this fast, progressive pattern; this is why I was trying to tell you not get too overwhelmed by any given suite. Yup, until we see the flow buckle we will have models wildly swing from cutter to suppression. Stick to ensembles and knowledge of the pattern to forecast beyond 4-5 days. Right now I'm not seeing a prolonged icing event for this weekend. I see a receding high with nothing to lock in the cold. Snow to ice to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yup, until we see the flow buckle we will have models wildly swing from cutter to suppression. Stick to ensembles and knowledge of the pattern to forecast beyond 4-5 days. Right now I'm not seeing a prolonged icing event for this weekend. I see a receding high with nothing to lock in the cold. Snow to ice to rain See UKMET for understanding what Will and I are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: See UKMET for understanding what Will and I are talking about. Even the Ukie needs a bit of work. We're gonna have to see changes pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Arctic wave leads to explosive cyclogenesis southeast of the benchmark. Could clip southeastern areas as EURO and CMC come closer to the coastline at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Right now it looks like Snow/Ice/Rain up here for the weekend, Definitely need to see the flow flatter to get the primary further east so we don't warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Even the Ukie needs a bit of work. We're gonna have to see changes pretty soon.The GEPS was probably the closest model to an ice storm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 It looks like the short range HRRR model and the RAP model both show a stronger shortwave involved in Wednesday morning's ocean storm however progressive flow leads to minimal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 It looks like the short range HRRR model and the RAP model both show a stronger shortwave involved in Wednesday morning's ocean storm however progressive flow leads to minimal snowfallYou serious Clark? Don't sh*t up the threads with 36 hour RAP extrapolations. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Oh boy "Explosive Cyclogenesis" is being used by James......too bad it's too far off shore James. Next! Hopefully at some point this season, we can all get excited about some "Explosive Cyclogenesis" with Arctic Air available as well. It just isn't now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 It is close on the 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It looks like the short range HRRR model and the RAP model both show a stronger shortwave involved in Wednesday morning's ocean storm however progressive flow leads to minimal snowfall Yeah, bad idea to use those beyond a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nobody loves a good North Atlantic fish storm quite like James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is close on the 12z EURO Unfortunately Close only counts in Horseshoes James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Not gonna happen James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Might see an explosive squall with the first fropa tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Jimmy crack corn and I don't care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: Might see an explosive squall with the first fropa tomorrow night James loading up on beans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Lol love the James pile on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Right now it looks like Snow/Ice/Rain up here for the weekend, Definitely need to see the flow flatter to get the primary further east so we don't warm sector. You thump to dry slot to misty to flash freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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