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Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted

I don't believe the CON number, slant stick.  Last storm they were way off from me too. 

Quote

Trained spotters reported snowfall totals ranging from 14 inches to 8 inches in Merrimack County for the latest storm, according to data from the National Weather Service. The unofficial totals are as follows:

Concord: 14 inches at 7 a.m.

Northfield: 11.2 inches at 5:20 a.m.

Danbury: 10.1 inches at 8 a.m.

South Sutton: 10 inches at 7 a.m.

Dunbarton: 10 inches at 6 a.m.

Bow: 9.3 inches at 7 a.m.

Canterbury: 9.2 inches at 7 a.m.

Newbury: 9 inches at 7 a.m.

Boscawen: 8.1 inches at 7 a.m.

Pittsfield: 8 inches at 8 a.m.

 

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BRSno

BRSno

Posted
Posted

Question from a complete amateur, and sorry if I can find the answer somewhere else. But what exactly leads to something like when places further west like BOS with a low to our east keep places like Cape Ann cold enough for all frozen while we rain? Purely latitude? What should I be looking for in model runs that would point to something like that happening?

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BRSno said:

Question from a complete amateur, and sorry if I can find the answer somewhere else. But what exactly leads to something like when places further west like BOS with a low to our east keep places like Cape Ann cold enough for all frozen while we rain? Purely latitude? What should I be looking for in model runs that would point to something like that happening?

Track is key.....generally you want a cyclone passing over or near the "benchmark" - which is a place in the ocean located at 40N-70W......its a spot due south of the Cape Cod elbow and due east of central New Jersey roughly......this usually puts all of SNE in the sweet spot where snow will fall throughout the storm coming first with warm air advection snows associated with the warm front overriding the dome of cold air and then second the setup of the cold conveyor belt snows associated with convergence of winds aloft coming from the NW and NE where they collide and are forced upward creating the lift needed to just dump snow......we saw this with last Thursdays snow which was a perfect SNE setup......banding set up over I-84 and dumped up to 18" of snow where areas west and east got less.....conversely yesterdays storm was further north and resulted in a messy mix situation in SNE and a more snowy solution north.......north of Boston (Cape Ann), SE NH and Maine got blasted because all those things I mentioned that are perfect for SNE got shifted north since the track was north of 40-70......some on here that are better at this than me can elaborate but generally that track I talk about is what you want if you are in BOS.......theres other more subtle things going on that can affect the amount of snows areas of New England get in a storm but that track thing is key.......now add a little blocking to the NE and a High pressure to the north draining cold air due south and thats a recipe for epic......

Peace

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, White Rain said:

21" Depth to my best estimation. The bottom 3-5 inches are like concrete. Needed a crowbar to puncture through to the bottom.  The road up and around the hill have 3' walls on each side. It definitely appears like we got over a foot from the last one due to the high density/impressive piles.

That's about what I measured for depth on winter hill...it was between about 20-23" depending on spot. Probably where the sleet pack from a few weeks ago melted the least.

 

Anyways, first 20"+ depth since 2015....never made it last year. Got close in February with about 17-18", but no cigar. Even to the east in Natick, depths aren't far from 20"...just a couple shy. There was more snow in Natick this past event than ORH surprisingly (I wouldn't have forecasted that before the storm)...paste job, but there was better QPF and rates in the 2nd half of the storm.

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BRSno

BRSno

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Track is key.....generally you want a cyclone passing over or near the "benchmark" - which is a place in the ocean located at 40N-70W......its a spot due south of the Cape Cod elbow and due east of central New Jersey roughly......this usually puts all of SNE in the sweet spot where snow will fall throughout the storm coming first with warm air advection snows associated with the warm front overriding the dome of cold air and then second the setup of the cold conveyor belt snows associated with convergence of winds aloft coming from the NW and NE where they collide and are forced upward creating the lift needed to just dump snow......we saw this with last Thursdays snow which was a perfect SNE setup......banding set up over I-84 and dumped up to 18" of snow where areas west and east got less.....conversely yesterdays storm was further north and resulted in a messy mix situation in SNE and a more snowy solution north.......north of Boston (Cape Ann), SE NH and Maine got blasted because all those things I mentioned that are perfect for SNE got shifted north since the track was north of 40-70......some on here that are better at this than me can elaborate but generally that track I talk about is what you want if you are in BOS.......theres other more subtle things going on that can affect the amount of snows areas of New England get in a storm but that track thing is key.......now add a little blocking to the NE and a High pressure to the north draining cold air due south and thats a recipe for epic......

Peace

Thanks for that! Really appreciate it. 

 

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Dan

Dan

Posted
Posted

In case anyone is interested.  The RGEM will become hourly on Feb 21st.

 

In the context of ensuring a constant improvement of our products and 
services, I'm pleased to announce that the temporal frequency of the 
RDPS data on the MSC Datamart will be increased on Tuesday February, 
21st. Currently available on a 3 hourly basis, the GRIB files will 
henceforth be available hourly at the address:

http://dd.meteo.gc.ca/model_gem_regional/10km/grib2/

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is rather interesting.  The MJO is forecasted to go through an incredibly strong phase 8 into phase 1 wave which is typically a strong signal for cold here in the east, however, the projected pattern looks to be quite opposite.  What is going on to cause this? 

That would say that we possibly could see some sort of correction.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, JC-CT said:

That would say that we possibly could see some sort of correction.

That's what I'm thinking but it would have to be one helluva correction.  The projected pattern in the 8-10 day mean at least is a major warmth signal...nothing reflective of MJO induced paternal signal 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This is rather interesting.  The MJO is forecasted to go through an incredibly strong phase 8 into phase 1 wave which is typically a strong signal for cold here in the east, however, the projected pattern looks to be quite opposite.  What is going on to cause this? 

 

A couple points: a) there is a time lag of approximately 6-8 days noted in the literature; B) 8 propagating into 1 is more propitious than 7-8; c) model data will likely correct and trend for the last week of the month due to MJO / strat constructive interference. With respect to the time lag, note that the peak of the blowtorch will come about 8 days subsequent to the greatest amplitude of p7 which is very warm signal. The p8/1 effects should begin to project more strongly by the 24th and beyond. This coupled with a very likely second major displacement event in the stratosphere, well advertised by the precursors, could set the stage for a period of favorability from the end of Feb into Mar. Some data is already beginning to detect the Pac /EPO domain alterations with increasing geopotential heights.  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

A couple points: a) there is a time lag of approximately 6-8 days noted in the literature; B) 8 propagating into 1 is more propitious than 7-8; c) model data will likely correct and trend for the last week of the month due to MJO / strat constructive interference. With respect to the time lag, note that the peak of the blowtorch will come about 8 days subsequent to the greatest amplitude of p7 which is very warm signal. The p8/1 effects should begin to project more strongly by the 24th and beyond. This coupled with a very likely second major displacement event in the stratosphere, well advertised by the precursors, could set the stage for a period of favorability from the end of Feb into Mar. Some data is already beginning to detect the Pac /EPO domain alterations with increasing geopotential heights.  

Nice...hopefully a fun March setting up....been quite a while for me...due.

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