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2016-2017 Lake Effect Snow Thread


BuffaloWeather

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16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That full fetch for days would bring some absolutely insane totals, would be awesome if one day we could get a persistent north wind. What is the all time best LES event for the south shore of Michigan?

Just really difficult to get that flow locked in for any more than 18 hours or so.  Like you said, rates can get crazy.  I know I've seen 5/hr.  Bo mentioned the 9/hr. in Chesterton, which is the heaviest I've heard of off Michigan.

As for biggest single event, South Bend picked up 36.7 over 2 days in 2011:  http://www.weather.gov/iwx/20110108_les.  That's the heaviest I know of, and featured 8 in one hr.  I will say, there have been numerous events in the 2-3 ft. range, but just hard to get over 3ft., due to the duration issue.  I would imagine, anywhere from Eastern Porter County through all of LaPorte, and the western half of St. Joe would be the possible sweet spot for any extreme event.  Obviously, someone could really get buried if a N-NW flow locked in for a couple days.

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18 minutes ago, nokywx said:

Just really difficult to get that flow locked in for any more than 18 hours or so.  Like you said, rates can get crazy.  I know I've seen 5/hr.  Bo mentioned the 9/hr. in Chesterton, which is the heaviest I've heard of off Michigan.

As for biggest single event, South Bend picked up 36.7 over 2 days in 2011:  http://www.weather.gov/iwx/20110108_les.  That's the heaviest I know of, and featured 8 in one hr. and 19in. in 4 hours, or something like that.  I will say, there have been numerous events in the 2-3 ft. range, but just hard to get over 3ft., due to the duration issue.  I would imagine, anywhere from Eastern Porter County through all of LaPorte, and the western half of St. Joe would be the possible sweet spot for any extreme event.  Obviously, someone could really get buried if a N-NW flow locked in for a couple days.

Found this too:

22.0” in 3 hours at Valparaiso, Indiana on Dec. 18, 1981.  It would be fascinating to know what the highest rate was during that event. The northerly flow off MI often has a Superior connection too which helps.

Not much info out there on Superior snowfall rates.... most go unreported due to vast areas with no people.

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50 minutes ago, Willh said:

Started snowing here I guess around 4am. Flurries at that time. Really started picking up around 8am...snowing pretty hard right now.

 

I don't really measure unless its noteworthy...so I've been content to just watch it from the window whilst I read.

 

Hope you get nailed Bo.

We'll see... latest hi-res 12 z destroys this area with over an inch liquid, and with 25:1 or better ratios!  woo hoo!

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56 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Found this too:

22.0” in 3 hours at Valparaiso, Indiana on Dec. 18, 1981.  It would be fascinating to know what the highest rate was during that event. The northerly flow off MI often has a Superior connection too which helps.

Not much info out there on Superior snowfall rates.... most go unreported due to vast areas with no people.

Wow...wasn't aware of that one.  I do vaguely recall reading about a huge event in Michigan City back in the 50s or 60s.  May have to do a little research on that.  22" in 3 hrs...you've got to imagine at some point  in there, rates were at least 10in.

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17 hours ago, weatherbo said:

I bet Hoosier would know the exact event

 

Latest forecast for this area.  I think 12-14" will be tops imby.

MQT_Snow.png

February 3-4, 2009 produced totals around 30" just east of Chesterton.  There was an event in December 2004 that produced similar totals, but jackpot was a little farther east in Michigan City.

As you guys mentioned, the problem with north flow setups is that they often don't last for more than several hours, and rarely more than 24 hours.  They can dump quickly though... I recall numerous events that had like 12-18" pretty quickly. And what's nice is that ice coverage almost never gets extensive enough to preclude a significant event.

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12 hours ago, nokywx said:

Wow...wasn't aware of that one.  I do vaguely recall reading about a huge event in Michigan City back in the 50s or 60s.  May have to do a little research on that.  22" in 3 hrs...you've got to imagine at some point  in there, rates were at least 10in.

:blink: That's amazing.

Picked up a little over 9" today, over 20" in ski country.

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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

:blink: That's amazing.

Picked up a little over 9" today, over 20" in ski country.

Quite the diversity in the subforum between those who live in the belts versus us who mainly rely on synoptic systems. You make a ho hum post of getting 9+", while we would be filling pages of a thread about 9" of system snow.

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4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Quite the diversity in the subforum between those who live in the belts versus us who mainly rely on synoptic systems. You make a ho hum post of getting 9+", while we would be filling pages of a thread about 9" of system snow.

LOL, welcome to LES, usually get used to the 6-10" snowfalls as they are very common. I do get a kick when posters in the sub talk about 1-3". I used to as well before moving up north. Over 12" snowfalls get some talk but not to much, heck I picked up over a foot the past few days haven't even had any weather headlines advisories etc. Just the way it is.

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Living in a lake belt would be my dream. Screw the east coast and their infrequent but potent noreasters. Our recent 2-week stretch of snowless weather was reminder enough for me that I have to have my climate of constant flakes.

 

Lake effect does get interesting though in SE MI, as we can easily see whiteouts as well, but they hit out of nowhere and then taper off suddenly, rather than training for hours. Below is a perfect photographic timeline of a heavy snow squall, taken from the 16th floor of the Motor City Casino Hotel in downtown Detroit. I posted it in the Jan discussion though its pretty appropriate in this thread too. I can count about 4 whiteouts this winter that I have had thanks to the Lake, and 3 of the 4 times the accum ranged from half an inch to an inch (the 4th time was an unusual 2.5"). REALLY hoping for some lake effect when Im in the UP so I can see this for hours on end.

 

The pictures span about 15 minutes from first to last.

 

4712-800.jpg

 

4713-800.jpg

 

4714-800.jpg


 

 

 

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On 1/27/2017 at 5:37 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Keeweenaw is a peninsula so I believe you guys get hit on pretty much every flow? The best would most likely be W/NW flow. BOs best setup is a departing storm system that has wrap around moisture with aided Superior influence under a NE flow, but also does well on a NW flow due to orographic influences. Josh in Gaylord does best with NW flow as well as we see this year with the persistent W/NW flow with getting moisture from Superior and Michigan. For my location WSW is the best flow, for the city of Buffalo SW is the best. For the snow belts south of here NW/W flow with orographic lift helps boost annual totals to 220"+ per year. The Tug Hills best flow is by far W, they sometimes get a 3 lake connection that can result in absolutely insane rates. 

I live in Hancock and the best flow is from the west, north of here wsw, and south of here like Twin Lakes NW flow is the best. Sometimes we can get it from east flow. Like the one time when a low was retrograding west from Maine. We had a good east flow convergance set up Had two feet of snow that one day here from South Range up to Calumet. 

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16 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Quite the diversity in the subforum between those who live in the belts versus us who mainly rely on synoptic systems. You make a ho hum post of getting 9+", while we would be filling pages of a thread about 9" of system snow.

Yeah I don't live in the snowbelts but I live in a place that gets LES on a pretty regular basis. A 20 minute drive would put me in 175-200" annual snowfall but I'm to lazy to drive farther for work, love the 15-20 min drive to the city so I'm and content with what we get here. It's hard to compare with those that get LES on the regular as it just adds so much to your annual snowfall. We've had next to no synoptic here this year. The belts are over 200" and over 60" here.

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Just now, Willh said:

Things are looking really good for the upper lake effect belt region over the next few weeks. Gonna be awesome.

 

Have picked up prolly 13-15 inches of snow since last friday - always outperforming each daily snow forecast. Wasn't supposed to snow much today...not till tonight...but we've already picked up 1-2 inches and its coming down even harder now.

The UP looks to stay above the crap zone for the foreseeable future.

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18 minutes ago, Willh said:

I think John Dee chose @weatherbo's picture for his snow picture of the day!

 

http://johndee.com/photos/february-1-2017/

 

Grats Bo! You're famous!

 

Assuming HuronBo is you...but who else could it be, lol.

Hey, well whatya know!

Picked up 4" early this morning really quick.  some of the fluffiest snow of the season I think.  Back over 2' again.

Since Thursday last week 18" has fallen.

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