Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Predict Date of 1st SnowStorm


PaEasternWX

Recommended Posts

Predict Date of 1st Snowstorm(which meets winter storm warning criteria) in:

Deadline is when Meteorological Winter Begins. 

BWI:

DCA:

IAD:

RIC:

For Reference here is what winter storm warning criteria is:

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1)  5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2)  Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3)  a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You might want to lower the criteria to WWA event, maybe with a snowfall total of say 2".  

Anyway, I'll go with Dec 17 for all locations.

A WWA event is not a legit snow storm. But I guess the definition of a legit snow storm is opinion based and could change from person to person. Plus you only need an inch of snow for the criteria to be met.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To make it more clear to everyone. Here is the criteria of a WSW event.

Quote

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1)  5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2)  Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3)  a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Some chance around Dec 11 but will enter contest with Dec 27 for all but RIC, they will wait for Jan 10 which could be a big storm for the whole region. 

Roger do you feel the progression of systems in the long range matches your early season description of events in terms of stormy perios and cold? 

Seems that in the end it may be that December builds the cold and the snow cover,  while early to mid January delivers the first major snows to the Mid Atlantic and coastal plain. Maybe that is the peak of the winter , to me that seems possible.

 The progression in the recent Jan 2017 CVS2 looks like your forecast . Pressing cold , blocking, and Southern jet under-cutting .

Thanks 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BWI: December 27

DCA: January 12

IAD: December 27

RIC: January 20

I question whether Richmond will even see an event that meets warning criteria, but I'm going to go with a southern slider that provides enough fluffy stuff that they barely get there. That same system might even deliver more snow to the DC area despite there being less QPF. Ratios, baby!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...