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December 2016 Discussion & Observations


bluewave

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

How close are you to the water? You are farther east but i appear to radiate better, hit 28 yesterday morning. 

Had 0.46 from this system. 

Less than 2 miles, arguably 1 mile if you count the inland estuaries (Nissy).  Plus I am on a hill.  It's hard to get the north breeze to die down here in the early fall, and even if it is very light, it's off warm water.  Early November I can usually drive a couple of mile south on a cool morning and find frost when we don't have frost.  Effect diminishes starting around 11/15.

It also varies depending on the wind direction.  Some days we seem do to quite well, just not as well as the middle of the island on the nights with a diminishing north wind.

Microclimates :)

 

PS I had 0.36" in the bucket this morning.

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39 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Less than 2 miles, arguably 1 mile if you count the inland estuaries (Nissy).  Plus I am on a hill.  It's hard to get the north breeze to die down here in the early fall, and even if it is very light, it's off warm water.  Early November I can usually drive a couple of mile south on a cool morning and find frost when we don't have frost.  Effect diminishes starting around 11/15.

It also varies depending on the wind direction.  Some days we seem do to quite well, just not as well as the middle of the island on the nights with a diminishing north wind.

Microclimates :)

 

PS I had 0.36" in the bucket this morning.

Ok, that makes sense. You probably get some decent sound enhancement when there is a cold NNE flow

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While it seems fairly certain that some serious cold is heading our way and with some staying power, certainly a week ago the duration was in question, I think its safe to say many would be hugely disappointed if Snow wasnt packaged along withat cold too. Very worst case scenario would be a combination of severe cold, runner, rinse and repeat!

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1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said:

While it seems fairly certain that some serious cold is heading our way and with some staying power, certainly a week ago the duration was in question, I think its safe to say many would be hugely disappointed if Snow wasnt packaged along withat cold too. Very worst case scenario would be a combination of severe cold, runner, rinse and repeat!

I would take a 2000 repeat. Cold mostly snowless month but with a great finish

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Oh okay. I was wondering why he is always so much warmer then you guys. He doesn't radiate well at all

Yeah, I'm southeast of JFK on the Nassau/Queens border, still comfortably within the UHI, plus I get the ocean influence.

I'm kind of 50/50 though as I commute to Suffolk, so I've seen plenty of frosty mornings and I've experienced sub-freezing temps already, no frost or freeze down here yet though.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Most impressive December cold in years here if the Euro and GFS even come close to verifying. OP Euro 6 for NYC..EPS mean 16.. GFS...13.

The last time NYC fell below 15 degrees in December was 2008 and below 10 degrees was way back in 1989. The coldest in Dec NYC has been 

since 2010 was 19 degrees and this looks colder than that even if the models are too cold. Both models also show below 0 potential for Chicago.

And minus 24C 850s.

 

Insane stuff.

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Yeah, I'm southeast of JFK on the Nassau/Queens border, still comfortably within the UHI, plus I get the ocean influence.

I'm kind of 50/50 though as I commute to Suffolk, so I've seen plenty of frosty mornings and I've experienced sub-freezing temps already, no frost or freeze down here yet though.

Oh okay. Well I think you can say goodbye to the peppers lol. Let us know how low you do go. Friday night should do it 

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The exact path of the PV and wind direction with the Arctic high will determine how cold we can get.

It looks like only the 5th December below zero potential since 2000 for Chicago.

December Below 0 readings for Chicago since 2000:

2013...2008...2004...2000

Drives that pv lobe right into the lakes 

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For NYC a 5120m 500mb height combined with a -21C 850mb Temp., as shown on 18Z, should produce a record low-----since  they are both records for mid-Dec. themselves.  However the GFS has played with the temperatures in this period by 50 degs.

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8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

For NYC a 5120m 500mb height combined with a -21C 850mb Temp., as shown on 18Z, should produce a record low-----since  they are both records for mid-Dec. themselves.  However the GFS has played with the temperatures in this period by 50 degs.

Euro is also very cold

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31 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

For NYC a 5120m 500mb height combined with a -21C 850mb Temp., as shown on 18Z, should produce a record low-----since  they are both records for mid-Dec. themselves.  However the GFS has played with the temperatures in this period by 50 degs.

A post regarding cold by you?

Oh, there is a caveat at then end...

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the closest pass of the PV to our region will be around December 15th-16th and then we see how long this pattern can hold on for.

The near record ridge for this time of year near Alaska is providing the cold. Without it, the flow would become more zonal later in the month.

 

 

eps_z500a_nh_33.png

 

Hopefully we can lay some snow cover to go after some record lows 

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46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was about as dramatic a Northern Hemisphere pattern change that you will ever see for Oct-Nov to Dec.

 

CzFBfOwXUAARf2P.jpg-small.jpg

 

 

 

 

Yeh , the one thing people have to recognize is when the Euro or the  GFS want to cut storms into H/B with a negative WPO/EPO they more than likely will not .

 

So I posted 2 days ago that the pattern comes 1st .

This illustrates it .This is a new source region and a new resulting 500.

The results over the next 10 to 12 days will be very different than the warm cutter solutions we just saw 

 

There is just too much energy running under the vortex to escape this 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Yeh , the one thing people have to recognize is when the Euro or the  GFS want to cut storms into H/B with a negative WPO/EPO they more than likely will not .

 

So I posted 2 days ago that the pattern comes 1st .

This illustrates it .This is a new source region and a new resulting 500.

The results over the next 10 to 12 days will be very different than the warm cutter solutions we just saw 

 

There is just too much energy running under the vortex to escape this 

 

 

 

Great analysis.  something nobody really mentioned but what's your thoughts on the convergence zones setting up over lakes and enhanced streamers pushing this Far East?... from what I can see (which is only basic) some of us have a real shot at getting caught in some enhancement 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I mentioned the other day how this is the type of Pacific blocking pattern that could produce December 2008 or 2013 type of snowfall events if we get lucky.

While it's not the blockbuster 20"-30" potential at the coast with the deeply neg AO like we saw in Dec 2009-2010, these storms getting forced underneath 

from the west can get us to closer to normal or even above normal snowfall for December with the right track. The longer that this pattern can hold on,

the more of these potential events we can rack up.

If memory serves, the winters following those two Decembers were quite different, with 2013-2014 being cold, snowy, and EPO-driven? I remember 2008-2009 being unremarkable...

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