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December 2016 Discussion & Observations


bluewave

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This block going up near the Bering Sea is among the strongest recorded in December during recent years. The only stronger block that I could find

was a +500 meter anomaly back in December 2010. The two closest positive anomalies in that region for December were

in 2013 and 2008. Both those years reached 400+ meters like the one the next few days. Following the very strong blocks in 2008 and 2013

NYC recorded minimum temperatures of 13 and 19 degrees. Monthly snowfall for NYC totaled 6.0" and 8.6".

 

2016...+434 meters

2016.png

 

400+ meters in 2008 and 2013

 

12:14:08.gif

 

12:1:13.gif

 

 

That ridge looks like it wants to combine with the ridge in Europe in that ensemble image 

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This block going up near the Bering Sea is among the strongest recorded in December during recent years. The only stronger block that I could find

was a +500 meter anomaly back in December 2010. The two closest positive anomalies in that region for December were

in 2013 and 2008. Both those years reached 400+ meters like the one the next few days. Following the very strong blocks in 2008 and 2013

NYC recorded minimum temperatures of 13 and 19 degrees. Monthly snowfall for NYC totaled 6.0" and 8.6".

 

2016...+434 meters

2016.png

 

400+ meters in 2008 and 2013

 

12:14:08.gif

 

12:1:13.gif

 

 

Huge diffs in the Western and Northern Atlantic including towards Greenland all the way across to Western Europe however when comparing 2008/2013 to 2016. Guess we will have to see how those differences correlate in comparison to the 2 temperature regimes. Any thoughts?

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Huge diffs in the Western and Northern Atlantic including towards Greenland all the way across to Western Europe however when comparing 2008/2013 to 2016. Guess we will have to see how those differences correlate in comparison to the 2 temperature regimes. Any thoughts?

While it's tough to get a perfect match, both those Decembers were Nina or cold neutral with the dominant block was near Alaska rather than Greenland like this year.

 

 

comp.png

 

eps_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

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18 minutes ago, Morris said:

And back to cold in the new run for January. The CFS is beyond just a joke.

Those that continue to post them along with the absolute joke that is the CanSIPS, are only trolling, and it's painfully obvious, when you ignore the runs that are cold, and seek out runs and models that are warm to post, you're showing your cards. Notice how they (and we know who they are) are MIA

 

December will go down as BN for many 

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10 hours ago, Snow88 said:

CMC is way weaker than the GFS in regards to the wave on Sunday. Looks like snow showers for the area.

 

GFS also came south and colder than 18z but not there yet in regards to all snow.

Overall the Sunday/Monday setup does not look too good to me because the winds would likely be south ahead of the system.  Its a setup that in February you could probably do okay on before changing over, but not early December.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Overall the Sunday/Monday setup does not look too good to me because the winds would likely be south ahead of the system.  Its a setup that in February you could probably do okay on before changing over, but not early December.

For the city that is, Sunday's wave has decent potential for those of us north and west of NYC

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I was speaking for posters like cfa who is still picking peppers etc 

He lives just over the border in Queens. Nassau County East of the Wantagh Parkway and north of the southern state has likely had their first freeze already. I think all of Suffolk has had their first freeze as well, other than the barrier islands.

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12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

He lives just over the border in Queens. Nassau County East of the Wantagh Parkway and north of the southern state has likely had their first freeze already. I think all of Suffolk has had their first freeze as well, other than the barrier islands.

Yeah but an hour at 31.5 degrees won't do much. We need a hard killing freeze which may finally happen this weekend. 

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49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Overall the Sunday/Monday setup does not look too good to me because the winds would likely be south ahead of the system.  Its a setup that in February you could probably do okay on before changing over, but not early December.

 

 

I think there is low level cold air ( better source region ) and poorly modeled WAA that may allow some snow to fall before it flips . So it will give way , but there should be some before it does.

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44 minutes ago, psv88 said:

He lives just over the border in Queens. Nassau County East of the Wantagh Parkway and north of the southern state has likely had their first freeze already. I think all of Suffolk has had their first freeze as well, other than the barrier islands.

Oh okay. I was wondering why he is always so much warmer then you guys. He doesn't radiate well at all

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4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

GFS tries to get a secondary low going south of LI for weekend, closer than previous runs, still pushes off 

 

drops 3-6" for most in the area, westchestee cashes in on 12z 

 

Yes and at 120  its - 5 @ 850 at KNYC 33 on a NW wind while it secondaries . That would flip everyone back to snow unless there is putrid 925 nose 

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