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December pattern/forecast thread


weathafella

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47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Missed you here my friend.  Our daughter packed the social calendar.  Departure home  just past midnight-about 10 hours from now.

 

i agree with the optimism.  I'm on the epicosity train for winter.

After the GC crap winter during your winter two years ago, I shudder at the thought.

Meanwhile, I'm guessing the last vestiges of the snow at my house will be gone today with sun and temps into the mid-30's with what appears to be very little to replace it in the next 36 hours.

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I don't fear a SE ridge if there is a bias towards Highs to our north and a lean towards a -NAO.  yes it puts some of us on a line, but at least up here that is a line I like to play with.  I fear a lack of ridging off the SE coast as it allows storms to pass to our south, and hallucinations of late trends to the n and w that don't appear.  Let's take our chances with an active winter and lots of qpf.  December could be a more typical December for a change I think.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week may be ugly even in ski country, but after that...boy it may get good there. Here's hoping that extends south. 

 

Yeah next week has had the cutter look for a while now...it hasn't improved, so we're probably dealing with a couple days of crap from that. Pretty big ridge building in the Bering region out in the extended...that's gonna make Canada cold. I hope we can keep a bit of the blocking in NE Canada.

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Dont gradient patterns typically have positive nao?  I thought the 2007 and 2008 seasons featured a lot of ak/bering sea ridging with confluent flow in the ne?

 

I think it happens a bit more often than not, but it's not a sure thing...the gradient patterns in Dec 1975, Dec 2007, and Dec 2008 did, but the Dec 1970 pattern did not as that one featured a good amount of Greenland blocking.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I think it happens a bit more often than not, but it's not a sure thing...the gradient patterns in Dec 1975, Dec 2007, and Dec 2008 did, but the Dec 1970 pattern did not as that one featured a good amount of Greenland blocking.

Cool. 

Id say the eps gefs most closely resembles dec. 1970 compared to the other gradient looks.  

 

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It looks like all products have us on the good side of the gradient 2nd week of December onward.    Ala 1970.   Week 1 was mild but hammersville thereafter.

Yeah this block up in NE Canada is getting bullied by the SE ridge. So we're gonna have to wait until that gets beat down a bit after the 5th. At first it looked like the block was gonna remain stout and help us out. 

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