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Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier

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4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

 


Also the regular EPS, GEFS and GEPS have all been very consistent in depicting the flip back to a colder pattern the last week of January the past several days. The pattern change they're showing is also supported by the progged MJO phases. Hopefully this flip has staying power and it's accompanied by opportunities for snow though.

 

Honestly...I am not too worried about GETTING snow. Detroit (& to an extent chicago) has most certainly had no problem getting snow out of any pattern. No we do not get snow from every storm lol, but in the end, 7 of the last 9 winters had above normal snow and the other 2 (with their hideous patterns) had more snow than they should have. 4 of those 9 were 2 FEET or more above normal. I am simply worried that the roller coaster continues (ie nothing will have staying power and yet we will have snow chances thru the end of April) which is bad for health among other things.

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Everyone take a sigh of relief our fearless leader JB has chimed in and says CFS v2 starting to come into alignment with his thinking on strat warming years for February ... using a blend of 2007,2010,2013,2015 

Does he seriously just cherry pick historic February's and plug them in for more views? Not believing any of this, just thought it was funny. 

IMG_0372.PNG

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1 minute ago, Chambana said:

Everyone take a sigh of relief our fearless leader JB has chimed in and says CFS v2 starting to come into alignment with his thinking on strat warming years for February ... using a blend of 2007,2010,2013,2015 

Does he seriously just cherry pick historic February's and plug them in for more views? Not believing any of this, just thought it was funny. 

IMG_0372.PNG

This winter has been nothing like any of those winters, he is just pushing his cold agenda like usual.

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38 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This winter has been nothing like any of those winters, he is just pushing his cold agenda like usual.

Actually I see some similarities to 2013 roller coaster wise. And this winter has been much colder than 2007. That was torch thru late Jan then flip to cold. JB is annoying but there IS a lot more to support a cold Feb than a mild one.

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its the rubber band theory. If the warmth goes to far in one direction its inevitable to snap back the other way. I'm banking on February having pure vodka cold with several weeks of snow on snow. The more quiet weeks will have storms and rumors of storms. Can't wait.

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00z EC with a bizarre superbomb right over northern IL next weekend.  Drops the surface low to 970mb right over my house lol.  Looks like convective feedback may be an issue to at least some degree though.  It tanks the southern (TN) surface low 14mb in 6hrs in the midst of deep convection.  On the next frame the northern surface low absorbs some of that energy and tanks itself, and becomes the superbomb, so to speak.  Creats a wild scenario, with heavy snows falling southwest of the low across IA into central IL.  Guessing we won't see another run like that.  There is a crapload of mid-upper jet energy crashing into the central US next weekend though, so something youge could end up happening.  

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17 hours ago, blackrock said:

But...we only have a few more weeks until certain individuals start chanting about "sun angle" affecting winter... :rolleyes:

 

Haven't had the chance to enjoy winter before those shenanigans start...

Oh boy. Can't wait for the sun angle comments lol. Actually our best stretch of this winter to date came with the lowest sun angle in December. 

 

I personally do not worry about scan angle til early March. And even then it's only over snowcover retention. The sun angle argument for an actual snowstorm is completely pointless. Snow will stick if it's snowing hard regardless of time of year.

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25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

00z EC with a bizarre superbomb right over northern IL next weekend.  Drops the surface low to 970mb right over my house lol.  Looks like convective feedback may be an issue to at least some degree though.  It tanks the southern (TN) surface low 14mb in 6hrs in the midst of deep convection.  On the next frame the northern surface low absorbs some of that energy and tanks itself, and becomes the superbomb, so to speak.  Creats a wild scenario, with heavy snows falling southwest of the low across IA into central IL.  Guessing we won't see another run like that.  There is a crapload of mid-upper jet energy crashing into the central US next weekend though, so something youge could end up happening.  

12z GFS is similar in showing the mid/upper level jet screaming onshore and through the southern US. Could be fun times.

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44 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

00z EC with a bizarre superbomb right over northern IL next weekend.  Drops the surface low to 970mb right over my house lol.  Looks like convective feedback may be an issue to at least some degree though.  It tanks the southern (TN) surface low 14mb in 6hrs in the midst of deep convection.  On the next frame the northern surface low absorbs some of that energy and tanks itself, and becomes the superbomb, so to speak.  Creats a wild scenario, with heavy snows falling southwest of the low across IA into central IL.  Guessing we won't see another run like that.  There is a crapload of mid-upper jet energy crashing into the central US next weekend though, so something youge could end up happening.  

That would be a cool outcome.  Complex setup being advertised next week...hopefully things can come together.

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8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh boy. Can't wait for the sun angle comments lol. Actually our best stretch of this winter to date came with the lowest sun angle in December. 

 

I personally do not worry about scan angle til early March. And even then it's only over snowcover retention. The sun angle argument for an actual snowstorm is completely pointless. Snow will stick if it's snowing hard regardless of time of year.

Well I am certainly hoping that we can get winter to continue through much of March this year. Otherwise, it has been a pretty short one. My area is two to three feet below normal snowfall for this winter to date.

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26 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Well I am certainly hoping that we can get winter to continue through much of March this year. Otherwise, it has been a pretty short one. My area is two to three feet below normal snowfall for this winter to date.

How much have you had so far this year?  I am a little SE of you and have had over 50" so far but it has all melted off. Grass is showing except where there were piles. 

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49 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

How much have you had so far this year?  I am a little SE of you and have had over 50" so far but it has all melted off. Grass is showing except where there were piles. 

Somewhere around 35ish inches. You guys got heavier snows from the December systems, AND all the strong winds during lake effect events have blown the heaviest snow over the lakeshore to the Grand Rapids area. It has NOT been a good start for the Muskegon area. We still have snowcover in many areas. A couple of inches in pretty much all shaded areas...but grass is showing wherever snow was blown away from the wind and snowcover was thinner. Plus, around the mall and open areas that always lose it first. My yard has a couple inches of glacier...but that will be toast this week.

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1 hour ago, blackrock said:

Somewhere around 35ish inches. You guys got heavier snows from the December systems, AND all the strong winds during lake effect events have blown the heaviest snow over the lakeshore to the Grand Rapids area. It has NOT been a good start for the Muskegon area. We still have snowcover in many areas. A couple of inches in pretty much all shaded areas...but grass is showing wherever snow was blown away from the wind and snowcover was thinner. Plus, around the mall and open areas that always lose it first. My yard has a couple inches of glacier...but that will be toast this week.

Wow I am kind of surprised I would have thought you would have done much better so far with LES for your area. 

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27 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Wow I am kind of surprised I would have thought you would have done much better so far with LES for your area. 

Yeah, we have probably done some of the worst in terms of lake effect compared to most snow belts this year. Like I mentioned, the 35 mph winds we have had with pretty much every lake effect event this year have either blown the snow waaaay inland, or they have ripped apart snowflake growth and we get the real fine snow that just doesn't pile up. Plus, this area cashes in big time with clippers, as SW winds really enhance snow off the lake...and we often get convergence. This year, we have had zero clippers, so that has not helped us at all. Muskegon is truly a microclimate in itself. We either get the heaviest snows...or some of the lowest. There isn't much "in between" stuff. Winters seem to be either feast or famine here. 150 inch snow seasons....or 70 inches.

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