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Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

 


The long range pattern looks almost as bad as it gets on all the ensembles with a deep AK vortex, 2011-12esque. I suppose with Canada and the Northern Plains as cold as they have been, there may be just enough cold air for a part of the sub to cash in if things align just right, but that overall is a very hostile look for winter prospects if the ensembles verify.

It'll be a terrible pattern for sure next week and into the last week of January...I just don't think it'll last.

The ensembles are starting to retract the Pac jet again towards the end of their runs, and there's been some agreement on a favorable MJO for cold developing during week 2.  We've had no problem popping robust ridging up near the Aleutians when the Pac jet has retracted so far this winter so the hope is that continues.  This winter has been remarkable in terms of how quickly the pattern has flipped from blow torch to frigid and back again. 

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It'll be a terrible pattern for sure next week and into the last week of January...I just don't think it'll last.



Yeah, definitely not implying we're going to torch for the rest of the winter. The
-EPO has been pretty cyclical so far since the beginning of December and that looks to continue. Would've been nice to at least keep some WPO ridging as opposed to what the ensembles are currently showing in day 10-15, still far enough out despite current excellent ensemble agreement that things can change to slightly less hostile. Hopefully some of us can cash in next weekend through early next week and then more of us outside the lake belts cash in once the pattern improves again.
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24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

 


Yeah, definitely not implying we're going to torch for the rest of the winter. The
-EPO has been pretty cyclical so far since the beginning of December and that looks to continue. Would've been nice to at least keep some WPO ridging as opposed to what the ensembles are currently showing in day 10-15, still far enough out despite current excellent ensemble agreement that things can change to slightly less hostile. Hopefully some of us can cash in next weekend through early next week and then more of us outside the lake belts cash in once the pattern improves again.

The volatility has been pretty remarkable.  We've gone from deep AK vortex to anomalous ridge and back a couple of times now.  Going from a big ridge over the east to a suppressing amount of cold isn't optimal, so hopefully when the pattern improves again it's more gradual.  I guess my one thought is with a wide open Gulf ahead of these cold shots that when/if the EPO flips again, there is probably a window for a deeper cyclone somewhere in the eastern half of the county.

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3 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The volatility has been pretty remarkable.  We've gone from deep AK vortex to anomalous ridge and back a couple of times now.  Going from a big ridge over the east to a suppressing amount of cold isn't optimal, so hopefully when the pattern improves again it's more gradual.  I guess my one thought is with a wide open Gulf ahead of these cold shots that when/if the EPO flips again, there is probably a window for a deeper cyclone somewhere in the eastern half of the county.

Always enjoy reading your posts, thanks for them!

Any support from the Atlantic (NAO/AO) seems unlikely through February in my opinion. The +QBO this Winter, coupled with the weakening central pacific La Nina, would seem to agree with that. I do agree with your point about the Pacific jet retraction near the end of January and beginning of February which would probably allow for a more -EPO/+PNA pattern to take fold. However, as everything has been this Winter, it might not last before we see another warm-up around mid February, but thats just pure speculation and nothing definitive. 

I still expect the SE Ridge to be a dominant feature in the coming weeks, common in La Nina's anyways. Any cold that we do see in the East will most likely be transient. In terms of cold, this is a Western North America Winter.

Any early thoughts on February-March?

 

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This winter on paper had been fine here...but it's from an unusual amount of Lake effect snow plus a nearly 11 inch snowstorm which tracked to our west. But the actual pattern had been horrendous. We did ok last year too in a horrendous super nino. So while these times have been trying they SHOULD have been a lot worse. It's like ma nature is trying to help us a bit while karma is trying to even us up a bit from our record winters.

 

This week it looks like everything but the kitchen sink is possible. Then we torch the 3rd week of January before going cold again. Roller coaster continues. This winter has shades of 1949-50 imo.

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Keep the shades pulled weenies. . wasted a month of winter.. Misery loves company and I'm digging to see how torchy and rainy SNE gets to close out January.

At least we finally had a great stretch of WX leading up to XMAS and the vintage Grinch WX to ensue until Feb.

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11 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Always enjoy reading your posts, thanks for them!

Any support from the Atlantic (NAO/AO) seems unlikely through February in my opinion. The +QBO this Winter, coupled with the weakening central pacific La Nina, would seem to agree with that. I do agree with your point about the Pacific jet retraction near the end of January and beginning of February which would probably allow for a more -EPO/+PNA pattern to take fold. However, as everything has been this Winter, it might not last before we see another warm-up around mid February, but thats just pure speculation and nothing definitive. 

I still expect the SE Ridge to be a dominant feature in the coming weeks, common in La Nina's anyways. Any cold that we do see in the East will most likely be transient. In terms of cold, this is a Western North America Winter.

Any early thoughts on February-March?

 

I agree with your comments about the lack of Atlantic help largely continuing.  Some SE ridge isn't terrible for this sub-forum, although this winter it's seemingly oscillated back and forth between supression and SE ridge on steroids at times. 

Going into the winter my thought was February would be a milder month, but I do like the chances for a cooldown around the turn of the month plus or minus a few days.  We'll see if that's a transient cool down before milder weather does take over or if it's more persistent...if we keep with the trends this winter it'll be the former.  Some of the winter analogs end up having cooler Marches, for now I don't see reason to deviate from that as long as we stay in a La Nina-esq pattern, but if the La Nina continues to weaken and the tropics stop acting like one over the next month or so then perhaps March will need to be tweaked some.

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Both the Euro and GFS have a decent system around the 21st.  Would be another rainer for most, but this one would have the possibility at some decent severe.  That's what I'll be watching since I've pretty much lost interest in this weekend's system for this area.  Would be pretty sweet to get a severe event/chase in January.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This is sort of a weird look

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_11.png

Noticed this same kind of weirdness on other models too in long range.   Showing everal strong lows in the vicinity of one another.    I suspect the models are unable to handle the calculations of what will ultimately be realized the week of January 23rd........

.....the QUADPHASER

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6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Noticed this same kind of weirdness on other models too in long range.   Showing everal strong lows in the vicinity of one another.    I suspect the models are unable to handle the calculations of what will ultimately be realized the week of January 23rd........

.....the QUADPHASER

Wasn't really even thinking about the multiple surface lows, but more about the size of the trough and circulation.  But as far as multiple lows, this image is even funnier

f240.gif

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47 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Looking more and more like Feb is a cold month. I have no doubt winter makes a return after a few weeks hiatus but the question is will there be a lot of snow with it?

Any reason why you think that?

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2 hours ago, Maxim said:

Any reason why you think that?

Various local winter outlooks were calling for that, and one of my favorite retired METS Bill Deedler actually said Jan had a good chance to be warmer than normal with a turn to colder in Feb. Our recent nice track record for Feb doesnt hurt either. But the main reason I posted that is because the CFS grows colder and colder by the day with its looking towards Feb. I also believe euro weeklies show this as well

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Various local winter outlooks were calling for that, and one of my favorite retired METS Bill Deedler actually said Jan had a good chance to be warmer than normal with a turn to colder in Feb. Our recent nice track record for Feb doesnt hurt either. But the main reason I posted that is because the CFS grows colder and colder by the day with its looking towards Feb. I also believe euro weeklies show this as well



Also the regular EPS, GEFS and GEPS have all been very consistent in depicting the flip back to a colder pattern the last week of January the past several days. The pattern change they're showing is also supported by the progged MJO phases. Hopefully this flip has staying power and it's accompanied by opportunities for snow though.
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