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Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro is supportive.

I do think they fixed the snow map issue over at weatherbell as well with respect to the maps showing snow in situations where it should be freezing rain. This model run shows precipitation falling with surface temps below freezing but no snow accumulations.

Also the GEM is in support of the potential ice storm/snowstorm.

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4 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Yes, the discussed scenario for ice is starting to make me nervous here in central IN.  Depends on the baroclinic set up geographically. of course.  But this would be for mid January.  Climo wise I usually don't have to start thinking about ice storms here till Feb.  And there are reports by INDNR of armadillos moving into southern IN expanding their range northward.  Something is happening.

Something is happening alright.  Pretty bad when ATL is going to ge more snow in 1 day than I've had all year.

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12z EC has a pretty significant ice storm for southeast IA/northern IL for the 14th/15th.  The signal is definitely there for something quite significant next weekend.  Looks like we may have something to track if trends continue.  The ice aspect seems to be showing up fairly consistently (between the EC/GFS) for such a long way out there in time.  

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2 hours ago, Jonger said:

Amazing how every storm delivers rain to SE Michigan. I personally don't care, but it's kind of ridiculous. 

Cold, then rain, then cold, then rain. 

The UP is going to be epic buried by day 15.

Let's wait and see what happens. December actually saw below normal precip but well above normal snow, so it's not like we have had a surplus of winter rain thus far. The extended looks much more active that it did a few days ago.

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6 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

0Z GFS lost the system, but has potential system on Friday now

I didn't look at the 0z run, but the 6z has it, albeit suppressed, with OV getting hammered with ice. Precipitation doesn't get flung north as far as earlier runs.

I have a feeling something bad's gonna happen to some of us next weekend.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I didn't look at the 0z run, but the 6z has it, albeit suppressed, with OV getting hammered with ice. Precipitation doesn't get flung north as far as earlier runs.

I have a feeling something bad's gonna happen to some of us next weekend.

I haven't dug into soundings but just looking at the 2m temps and precip on the 00z euro,  it looks a bit scary.   It has what apprears to be a very long duration freezing rain event  for central and southern IN, and OH.   

The only thing worse than snowless winter weather, is snowless winter weather with no power.   I have no desire to go through that.   Not to sound like I'm wishing this on someone else but the good news is the target area will most likely change this far out.   Of course best case scenario is there won't be a target freezing area for any of us, and it ends up being a sleet or snow storm for someone.

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Euro is EXTREMELY moist. Some places finish with over 2"+ QPF all frozen. Not to mention euro continuing the ice trend that the 12z GFS did not. Has areas of over 2" of ice in OK/MO/IL and about 1" of ice in IN/ S MI. and Heavy snow to the north of that. Everyone north of a KC-Burlington(IA)-Chicago to just north of the MI border gets hit good with heavy snow. Ice exists on the southern fringe of that area. Quite the storm showing up in the (very)long range.

EDIT: would be extremely surprised to see anything close to this verify given the crap out trend so far this season and how far out it is. 

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Considering the Euro has been notoriously dry since the last upgrade, I would really be paying attention with it showing this much moisture already. The Gulf is as wide open as possible for this time of year as well so high QPF output is not shocking. Especially when you throw moisture laden air over a strong baroclinic zone, those are always efficient at wringing out the atmosphere of all the moisture.

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Low-mid 60s dews in the warm sector will do that in a January overrunning setup. Just comes down to a) does the no-Pac kicker solution work out as the EC/GEM suggest and b ) the speed of the wave as it ejects from the 4 corners area. A honkin 1050mb high should have no problem supplying the cold and I'd be wary of taking a solution that erodes that colossal cold dome too fast.

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This really does look like it has the potential to get ugly if we get the EC/GGEM type evolution.  1"+ of ice is problematic enough without wind, but that strong surface high suggests that there will be some wind even in the absence of a strong surface low. 

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This really does look like it has the potential to get ugly if we get the EC/GGEM type evolution.  1"+ of ice is problematic enough without wind, but that strong surface high suggests that there will be some wind even in the absence of a strong surface low. 

Good thing is -- ice storms require a fragile/marginal setup and we're still 5-6 days out, so there's plenty of time for this to change. It'd be panic city if this sucker was in the 3-4 day wheelhouse of the Euro.

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3 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Good thing is -- ice storms require a fragile/marginal setup and we're still 5-6 days out, so there's plenty of time for this to change. It'd be panic city if this sucker was in the 3-4 day wheelhouse of the Euro.

True.  Besides amounts, what's striking on some of the models is the wide area that would be under the gun for significant ice.  

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Before we get to whatever happens on the weekend, there's the early week system and another one right on its heels for Thursday (going to have to be pretty far north to get in on the goods again).  At least it's getting active.

Not to mention the insane cold being advertised (at least up this way).  0z GFS has parts of MN in the -40s. Euro onboard for serious cold, too.

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