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Winter 2016-2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier

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:wub: at that map.

Who knows - if we get a decent snowpack over the next 3-7 days and get one of the nights to clear out with light winds, the bottom could drop out.  The long mid-December nights will help too.  As always, it's a matter of timing this far out...but you have to like our chances for some cold mornings between now and Christmas.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That run has snow to ice for a lot of folks. Tremendous precip shield with warmer air overrunning the cold dome.

If this storm pans out, I wouldn't be surprised if some areas do end up seeing ice with such a tight gradient. 

Looks more interesting than this weekends event esp with the vort placement.  

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49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GGEM has a nice storm next weekend as well.

This is obviously subject to change but the ice zone is huge on both models.  Like enormous.  Any relatively deep system would spread varying/changing ptypes over a large area.

It would actually be larger than currently shown if the synoptic pattern being shown verifies. The models aren't factoring in the snow that will be on the ground after Sunday night, that is going to be a pretty healthy snow pack as well, so some of the areas that might warm on this system aloft might have a hard time warming at the surface with flow out of the east/northeast with this system. Either way this could be a dozy if the synoptic pattern verifies.

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Euro, GFS and GEM agree on a storm at that range. Timing and strength differ, but the general setup of a strong cA/mT boundary with a wide open Gulf and plenty of in-situ and advected frigid air around will make for an interesting scenario. Definitely going to be keeping my eye on this one. Ripe for an ice event.

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Another thing about next weekend, and admittedly this is all still very speculative... if the ice zone comes far enough north, it would be coming on very cold ground given what temps are going to be like in the coming days.  Could be one of those situations where there's a lag time with the surfaces still accreting even in areas where temps get above freezing.

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Apparently word on social media was already getting around about a historic winter storm for next weekend. Local met tweeted out about the false information. Even heard a conworker chatter about how she heard "the perfect storm" could be coming next weekend. Give me a break. 

 

Social media is a disease. Especially weather related lol.

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17 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Apparently word on social media was already getting around about a historic winter storm for next weekend. Local met tweeted out about the false information. Even heard a conworker chatter about how she heard "the perfect storm" could be coming next weekend. Give me a break. 

 

Social media is a disease. Especially weather related lol.

FWIW LOT AFD just mentioned the potential of a doozy late next week, but your point is well taken

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Entertaining 18z GFS for next weekend.  I think almost everybody here sees all precip types by the end.

Dizzying airmass change too... for fun, there's areas in northern IL/IN that go from -10F to 40F in a span of 36 hours.  That would be quite a thing to see.

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