CoachLB Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Not going to get to excited about it. Right after that front another warm shot and a pile of rain a few days later. Looks like a hard pattern to get broke down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 It was touched on a bit earlier but one thing I'm noticing in the extended is the sheer flatness of the flow across much of the country. Looks like quite a progressive pattern. That won't be conducive to anything meteorologically appealing where you look at the maps and go "wow", but it doesn't preclude significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z ECMWF has a more intense system than the GFS late weekend, so warm air gets farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: It also gets REALLY cold in the extended. Thank God for that lake moderation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Definitely liking the -WPO pattern setting up in the long range. This will finally setup a true source of Arctic air. Also, the Nina-enhanced SE ridge makes a play, kicking off a pretty awesome gradient pattern. Look for plenty of progressive systems with plenty of opportunities for overrunning and f-gen events. Direct interaction of moist subtropical air with deep Arctic air usually results in extended zones of mixed (frozen/freezing) precip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Definitely liking the -WPO pattern setting up in the long range. This will finally setup a true source of Arctic air. Also, the Nina-enhanced SE ridge makes a play, kicking off a pretty awesome gradient pattern. Look for plenty of progressive systems with plenty of opportunities for overrunning and f-gen events. Direct interaction of moist subtropical air with deep Arctic air usually results in extended zones of mixed (frozen/freezing) precip as well. Always nice to see you being bullish. That southeast ridge on the 12z GFS out past day 10 was something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Always nice to see you being bullish. That southeast ridge on the 12z GFS out past day 10 was something. 18z got even more impressive with the ridge out in la la land. Pretty insane run actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 49 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z got even more impressive with the ridge out in la la land. Pretty insane run actually. Good pattern for some overrunning snows and ice potentials once we establish a snow pack. I'd be more than cool with a pattern like that all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: Good pattern for some overrunning snows and ice potentials once we establish a snow pack. I'd be more than cool with a pattern like that all winter. Yeah, there are worse patterns. Of course you'd want to be on the right side of the gradient. But that type of look would be capable of prolific precip events even in the absence of deep surface lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, there are worse patterns. Of course you'd want to be on the right side of the gradient. But that type of look would be capable of prolific precip events even in the absence of deep surface lows. Yep and with the potential of the -AO pressing in, a good portion of the subforum would be on the right side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 hours ago, Stebo said: Yep and with the potential of the -AO pressing in, a good portion of the subforum would be on the right side of the gradient. I agree pattern looks very active. Lots of ups and downs, but I would always take a look like the next few weeks will bring. The entire forum should get their fair share of active weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 First post in a while. Not in a verbatim sense but just as a general idea, the 00z GFS shows next week the potential of the upcoming classic Niña pattern with the incredible baroclinic zone/thermal gradient it depicts across the Plains next Tuesday and Tuesday night. From <-20C at 850 mb across the northern High Plains to ~20C across the southern High Plains. Even in the absence of deep surface lows, the mid-upper systems will be extra juiced from interaction with a thermal gradient similar to that. And as long the the -WPO/Aleutian ridging continues, there's gonna be a constant feed of cold air into the source region to keep the baroclinic zone tight, also thanks to the southeastern ridging tendency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Looks like an awesome set up coming to you folks in the i-80 corridor on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 At this time it looks that we should indeed look and feel very winter like in the next 6 to 10 days (or more) as we have several chances of both lake effect and synoptic snow. There is also some cold now showing up as well. In fact maybe some of the coldest we have seen in December in several years. And the lakes are still much warmer than average for this time of the year. So dig out the snow shovel and get some gas for the snow blower and hope for the best. (That is snow for the snow lovers and little snow for the non-snow lovers). My guess there will be areas in west Michigan with a lot of snow in the next 10 days or so. Right now here at my house I have a reading of 32° Most of the snow that fell Sunday has melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 PV is going to pay a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The 18Z run of the GFS shows a wintery scenario unfolding in the region. Snow followed by a PV and a in the mix. Looks to warm up for Santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Has not come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Has not come out yet. Sorry my bad. 18z not 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I will be in Ohio for Christmas this year. I wonder what the weather will be when I am there? Today's GEFS ends off at Dec 23rd with somewhat mild temps in the East. The Tropicaltidbits.com CFS plot shows about +1C mild for Dec 22-27. The NCEP web site CFS plot shows slightly mild to warm for the Ohio River to the Southeast Dec 21-27. I want to see rain when I go to Ohio. I have forgotten what rain looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 ....well that 00z Euro LR was entertaining, to say the least... Two words: triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 24 minutes ago, andyhb said: ....well that 00z Euro LR was entertaining, to say the least... Two words: triple phaser. Also both the GFS and GEM showed a system in their medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Checking the MOS I cannot believe the cold it is showing for next week. I do not remember the last time we flirted with 0° in mid December here in Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Checking the MOS I cannot believe the cold it is showing for next week. I do not remember the last time we flirted with 0° in mid December here in Toledo It was 3 degrees on 12-15-10 in Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 That's a pretty impressive system at the end of the Euro run. 1052 and 980, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Med / long term looks halfway decent for snowstorm potential Tons of possible opportunities, but it's still like pulling teeth to get much STJ interaction with any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 11:51 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said: It also gets REALLY cold in the extended. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 hours ago, andyhb said: ....well that 00z Euro LR was entertaining, to say the least... Two words: triple phaser. Yeah no joke. 00z Euro is a snow weenies dream for southern MN, IA, southern WI and northern IL... the latter two in particular. Lower MI too. Run totals pushing 3 feet in spots for southern WI and widespread 30+ across northern IL and southern WI and west central lower... Granted a lot of that is out in la la land, but fun to look at. With cold trends in the other guidance, looks like good potential for a white Christmas across a large part of the sub. What a change from the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 17 hours ago, Chinook said: I will be in Ohio for Christmas this year. I wonder what the weather will be when I am there? Today's GEFS ends off at Dec 23rd with somewhat mild temps in the East. The Tropicaltidbits.com CFS plot shows about +1C mild for Dec 22-27. The NCEP web site CFS plot shows slightly mild to warm for the Ohio River to the Southeast Dec 21-27. I want to see rain when I go to Ohio. I have forgotten what rain looks like. We do xmas rain really well here.... I suspect your wish will come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Day 9/10 on the 12z GFS looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Very active, with plenty of snow chances for most on the board in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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